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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 16:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 19 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.6N 85.8W
Location: 41 statute miles (65 km) to the SSW (192°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
922mb (27.23 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 260° (from the W) 34 knots (39 mph)
850mb 716m (2,349 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.1°C (72°F) 285° (from the WNW) 28 knots (32 mph)
700mb 2,401m (7,877 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 275° (from the W) 9 knots (10 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.63N 85.77W
- Time: 15:59:00Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.63N 85.74W
- Time: 16:02:54Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 275° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 33 knots (38 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 285° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 920mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 162 gpm - 12 gpm (531 geo. feet - 39 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 270° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
922mb (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 26.0°C (79°F)
850mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.1°C (72°F)
697mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
922mb (Surface) 260° (from the W) 34 knots (39 mph)
915mb 270° (from the W) 32 knots (37 mph)
907mb 270° (from the W) 36 knots (41 mph)
850mb 285° (from the WNW) 28 knots (32 mph)
756mb 305° (from the NW) 14 knots (16 mph)
736mb 290° (from the WNW) 12 knots (14 mph)
720mb 300° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
697mb 270° (from the W) 9 knots (10 mph)
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17 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Who said a few pages ago that land interaction could drag it westward?

It sure looks like it's doing that in the last few GOES frames.

Me, @csnavywx and James Spann from ABC 33/40.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

Unless this jogs west soon, Panama City is going to get (relatively) lucky.

Mexico beach....yikes. 

There was a 121 kt unflagged SFMR in the SW eyewall on that pass, Panama City is still in dire straits.

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26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It seems to me that Panama City is going to take it on the chin just about as bad as it could.   Almost worst case for them. 

St. George Island is going to take it too...winds straight down the length of it. Good Lord.

 

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Just now, andyhb said:

There was a 121 kt unflagged SFMR in the SW eyewall on that pass, Panama City is still in dire straits.

Thanks. I guess I’m just so used to the whole left quadrant weaker logic that I’m looking at it like that. I guess with a storm this strong it doesn’t matter.

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It's going to be bad in PCB, but it could have been worse. 10-15 miles farther west and the damage in PCB would have been insane. I can't imagine what Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe are going to look like after this comes through. Can't imagine there is going to be much left.

 

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Quote
000
NWUS52 KTAE 101644
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HURRICANE        1 NNW PORT SAINT JOE    29.82N 85.30W
10/10/2018                   GULF               FL   MESONET          

            GULF COUNTY EOC WEATHERSTEM SITE REPORTED A 
            GUST OF 106 MPH. 

 

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Panama City still will get the eyewall but should relatively dodge a bullet with awful wind damage instead of awful wind and surge damage. 

Very good post, correct surge is a much greater threat then wind as waters in inherently More damaging. There will probably be some incredible blowouts of upper floors of high rises but the lack of the full surge will spare the city from completely disappearing which looks likely with the eastern eyewall. 

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3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

ALERT !! ALERT!! MICHAEL NOW CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... LIKELY TO BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO EVER HIT FL PANHANDLE.. now very close to category 5 ...MSLP down to 915 mb ... winfs to 160 mph ...only 4 other Hurricanes that have struck the US have been stronger .. he says waiting for the nhc to make it official...

i will wait for official NHC confirmation, but regardless the panhandle coast is screwed right now. Praying for them right now

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