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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Sticking a fork in a Cat 5...just not enough time left over water.  It's going to be interesting to see the AWOS/ASOS reports from this.

they could upgrade it in the future when they analyze all the data...

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Sticking a fork in a Cat 5...just not enough time left over water.  It's going to be interesting to see the AWOS/ASOS reports from this.

they could upgrade it in the future when they analyze all the data...

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sticking a fork in a Cat 5...just not enough time left over water.  It's going to be interesting to see the AWOS/ASOS reports from this.

Could of course happen posthumously, but certainly not worth betting on. I believe that’s what happened with Andrew...

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sticking a fork in a Cat 5...just not enough time left over water.  It's going to be interesting to see the AWOS/ASOS reports from this.

Outside of KPAM this will miss most of the stations.  I went and added some weather bug ones as those were useful near KAPF last year with Irma when most of the ASOS stations went down 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Could of course happen posthumously, but certainly not worth betting on. I believe that’s what happened with Andrew...

not much difference between the highest end cat 4 and the lowest end cat 5 in terms of wind damage...it's about semantics...

 

 

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Recon is heading in for another pass, this time from the Southeast. It's only about 5kts shy of category 5 intensity and we still have another two hours or so before LF.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Hopefully someone is positioned east of Panama City and can get some shots in that eye eventually.   It should be total blue sky in there 

Fortunately, in the last 5 years, everyone became a chaser with a decent quality video camera in their phone.  As long as some morons didn't evacuate we should finally get the elusive blue-sky daytime eye pics we've all secretly wanted.

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

not much difference between the highest end cat 4 and the lowest end cat 5 in terms of wind damage...it's about semantics...

 

 

Semantics, but when you consider that only 3 hurricanes have ever made LF in the US as a Cat 5 and the last one was almost 30 years ago, it's significant.

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7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The HWRF was right.

I'm a big believer in the HWRF. It used to be an awful model and with significant investment, the NHC now has an incredible tool in what is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorology. 

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So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet dodged. 
The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side? 
Left turn could happen briefly with land interaction.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Semantics, but when you consider that only 3 hurricanes have ever made LF in the US as a Cat 5 and the last one was almost 30 years ago, it's significant.

well technically puerto rico is part of the us and maria was a cat 5 at landfall...

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

What’s the wind based on? They haven’t found 130kts have they?

Remember they have more data than what we see publically. Also I believe someone posted data earlier that supported that intensity.

In any event, 145kts at 924mb in the Northern eyewall from before. 

recon_AF306-1314A-MICHAEL_dropsonde18_20181010-1314.png

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm a big believer in the HWRF. It used to be an awful model and with significant investment, the NHC now has an incredible tool in what is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorology. 

the improvements that have been made to it are incredible.  when it went operational it was literally a joke and now it's only a joke when it goes bonkers in the WPAC or when all the other models are performing badly too.

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

the improvements that have been made to it are incredible.  when it went operational it was literally a joke and now it's only a joke when it goes bonkers in the WPAC or when all the other models are performing badly too.

It made the GFDL look good when it came online lol.  It's been very good especially with Gulf systems.

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Apalachicola Airport reported a 76mph gust in one of the more recent spiral bands. Velocities in the eastern eyewall are still routinely maxing out my color scale at 150kts... though we're down to a ~5000ft beam height now. 

kevx_20181010_1544_BR_0.5.png

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4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

well technically puerto rico is part of the us and maria was a cat 5 at landfall...

maria was a cat 4 when it hit PR (it was undergoing an ERC)

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Hwrf didn't show a 925 pressure at landfall until last night. Only 1 model nailed the intensity, and its everyone's favorite model.

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20 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Yeah, Tallahasse looks to be mostly spared of the hurricane force winds as things currently stand, but it won't take much to put the city under the line of fire.  I'm out of town now on an unrelated vacation, but my apartment is in NE Tallahasse, so I'm hoping things don't get too bad now. I wish I hadn't parked my car under a tree now...

Hopefully Hermine purged the weakest trees, but Tallahassee is not prepared at all to deal with a major hurricane.  So many trees overhanging roads and structures...

Tallahassee is still listed as being just in the zone that could get up to 110 mph gusts, so not being spared in my book - see the NWS briefing from the AFO.  

https://www.weather.gov/media/tae/briefings/nws-tae-briefing.pdf

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very similar to Opal's peak intensity over the central GOM.

Yup, but this one is 30 miles from landfall at that intensity...that's something you don't see every year.  This is gonna go crazy on the Panhandle.

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Went out to the beach in Navarre a while ago. Bear in mind that I’m probably 90+ miles from Mexico Beach. Here are a few pics. The pier is 25ft high for reference. I can’t imagine being E of PC.
2f0359750bc641408516379b1164b45d.png958671a10997fcb908c5c22849e7e58e.pngb3a263db09806fb2279989b6a1dda902.jpg


.

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 15:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.4N 85.8W
Location: 54 statute miles (87 km) to the S (189°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
935mb (27.61 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.7°C (78°F) Unavailable
925mb 95m (312 ft) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 185° (from the S) 144 knots (166 mph)
850mb 838m (2,749 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 21.3°C (70°F) 210° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph)
700mb 2,511m (8,238 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 240° (from the WSW) 133 knots (153 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:13Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.37N 85.81W
- Time: 15:13:45Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.45N 85.73W
- Time: 15:16:36Z

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 215° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 132 knots (152 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 933mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 164 gpm - 14 gpm (538 geo. feet - 46 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 185° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 132 knots (152 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666

Height of the last reported wind: 14 geopotential meters
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
935mb (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.7°C (78°F)
850mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 21.3°C (70°F)
708mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) 16.0°C (61°F)
696mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
935mb (Surface) Unavailable
933mb 180° (from the S) 96 knots (110 mph)
931mb 185° (from the S) 112 knots (129 mph)
925mb 185° (from the S) 144 knots (166 mph)
921mb 190° (from the S) 146 knots (168 mph)
913mb 190° (from the S) 133 knots (153 mph)
903mb 190° (from the S) 147 knots (169 mph)
895mb 195° (from the SSW) 136 knots (157 mph)
887mb 205° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph)
877mb 205° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph)
869mb 210° (from the SSW) 143 knots (165 mph)
862mb 210° (from the SSW) 133 knots (153 mph)
855mb 210° (from the SSW) 142 knots (163 mph)
850mb 210° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph)
786mb 225° (from the SW) 128 knots (147 mph)
779mb 225° (from the SW) 142 knots (163 mph)
736mb 235° (from the SW) 142 knots (163 mph)
715mb 240° (from the WSW) 122 knots (140 mph)
696mb 245° (from the WSW) 137 knots (158 mph)

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