csnavywx Posted October 10, 2018 Watch for dropsondes released in the southeast quad, because with such high wind speeds, the 'sonde is likely to be in the northeast quad by the time it hits the surface. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted October 10, 2018 Bettes and his crew are having to stay put 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Wow those mesos going off in the eyewall right now are mesmerizing! 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: Bettes and his crew are having to stay put Brett Adair is on his way to Mexico Beach with the concern of whether there is a place there (like a parking garage) to hunker down - https://livestormchasing.com/map Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 10, 2018 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at least day 4. Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S. East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects those areas. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible. 2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and Panama City. 3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland later today and this evening. 4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Derecho! Posted October 10, 2018 Any bets on if/when KEVX radar is toast? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jackstraw Posted October 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Watch for dropsondes released in the southeast quad, because with such high wind speeds, the 'sonde is likely to be in the northeast quad by the time it hits the surface. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 14:02Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 14 Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 14 Observation Number: 34 Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 10th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 29.1N 86.0W Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the SSW (195°) from Panama City, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 934mb (27.58 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 145° (from the SE) 115 knots (132 mph) 925mb 90m (295 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.8°C (77°F) 155° (from the SSE) 134 knots (154 mph) 850mb 828m (2,717 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 200° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:44Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 29.12N 85.99W - Time: 13:44:58Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 29.25N 85.95W - Time: 13:48:47Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 138 knots (159 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 126 knots (145 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 753mb to 934mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 131 knots (151 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 934mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 825mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 21.4°C (71°F) 753mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) 18.2°C (65°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 934mb (Surface) 145° (from the SE) 115 knots (132 mph) 931mb 155° (from the SSE) 119 knots (137 mph) 928mb 160° (from the SSE) 131 knots (151 mph) 920mb 155° (from the SSE) 140 knots (161 mph) 914mb 160° (from the SSE) 156 knots (180 mph) 910mb 160° (from the SSE) 149 knots (171 mph) 905mb 165° (from the SSE) 134 knots (154 mph) 902mb 165° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph) 894mb 175° (from the S) 138 knots (159 mph) 890mb 180° (from the S) 154 knots (177 mph) 886mb 185° (from the S) 155 knots (178 mph) 881mb 190° (from the S) 162 knots (186 mph) 877mb 190° (from the S) 157 knots (181 mph) 865mb 190° (from the S) 154 knots (177 mph) 857mb 195° (from the SSW) 139 knots (160 mph) 850mb 200° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph) 811mb 210° (from the SSW) 118 knots (136 mph) 753mb 230° (from the SW) 124 knots (143 mph) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bdgwx Posted October 10, 2018 You can really see the irregularly shaped eye in the radar. Doesn't the instability that causes the irregular shape and mesovortices in the eyewall have a name? Anyway, I hope a DOW or RaxPol radar is in position to get a better look. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted October 10, 2018 129kts in the NE eyewall. (148.451 MPH) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 10, 2018 Recon has turned and is poised to make a NW to SE pass soon. Judging from the IR and incredibly impressive radar, the only thing that can slow Michael at this point is the start of an ERC. We'll see if there's any core disruption in the next few hours. Not much time now until landfall. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 I don't think the ERC mentioned in the AFD is going to have time to have much of any impact prior to landfall. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bdgwx Posted October 10, 2018 IKE computes out to 44 TJ on the 10am update. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Drz1111 Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the ERC mentioned in the AFD is going to have time to have much of any impact prior to landfall. Also, outerwall will be disrupted by land interaction first . . . I think with landfall 3-5 hours away, its a red herring: interesting for posterity though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: Also, outerwall will be disrupted by land interaction first . . . I think with landfall 3-5 hours away, its a red herring: interesting for posterity though. I was thinking about that....no bueno for the coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
csnavywx Posted October 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, bdgwx said: You can really see the irregularly shaped eye in the radar. Doesn't the instability that causes the irregular shape and mesovortices in the eyewall have a name? Anyway, I hope a DOW or RaxPol radar is in position to get a better look. Barotropic instability. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Subtropics Posted October 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Brett Adair is on his way to Mexico Beach with the concern of whether there is a place there (like a parking garage) to hunker down - https://livestormchasing.com/map He's on the ocean front in mexico beach now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
adk Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was thinking about that....no bueno for the coast. It's like saying the force of his punch will be dissipated by hitting the jaw. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Charley was beginning an ERC prior to landfall. The inner eye continued to intensify however. These processes are difficult to forecast, much more difficult to make any intensity judgements upon without the cycle in an advanced stage. And sometimes that doesn't pan out either as Maria still had extreme core wind in the remnant NE inner wall at landfall. Seems to be too little too late at this point. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
parrisbutch Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, Subtropics said: He's on the ocean front in mexico beach now. I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted October 10, 2018 50+dbz echos now showing up in the NE eyewall. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tibet Posted October 10, 2018 031 WFUS52 KTAE 101511 EWWTAE FLC005-037-045-101815- /O.NEW.KTAE.EW.W.0001.181010T1511Z-181010T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Extreme Wind Warning National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1111 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a * Extreme Wind Warning for... Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida... Southern Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida... Southwestern Franklin County in Big Bend of Florida... * Until 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/. * At 1109 AM EDT/1009 AM CDT/, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated extreme winds in excess of 130 mph, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Michael, were moving onshore. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter. Take action now to protect your life! && A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/ for Big Bend of and the Panhandle of Florida. LAT...LON 2960 8524 2960 8540 2975 8549 2988 8549 3017 8597 3031 8592 3013 8523 2963 8479 2953 8510 TIME...MOT...LOC 1509Z 219DEG 14KT 2948 8588 $$ 42-DVD 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cstrunk Posted October 10, 2018 22 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Brett Adair is on his way to Mexico Beach with the concern of whether there is a place there (like a parking garage) to hunker down - https://livestormchasing.com/map That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero based on current trends.... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Subtropics Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, cstrunk said: That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero. https://livestormchasing.com/map Yeah he's in a dangerous spot... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kristospherein Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, parrisbutch said: I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad. I was there in August---Completely agree. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2018 Port St Joe looks like a decently populated place and is in a terrible spot. Same for Apalachicola. I guess the trend east is better for Panama City Beach but it puts these other towns in the NE eyewall. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 10, 2018 Just to clarify, I wasn't saying that an ERC would weaken Michael, I was just saying that I think that's the only thing that could stop it at this point. This is going to be a catastrophic hit for Florida. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Subtropics said: He's on the ocean front in mexico beach now. 8 minutes ago, parrisbutch said: I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad. 4 minutes ago, cstrunk said: That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero. 3 minutes ago, Subtropics said: https://livestormchasing.com/map Yeah he's in a dangerous spot... 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Port St Joe looks like a decently populated place and is in a terrible spot. Same for Apalachicola. I guess the trend east is better for Panama City Beach but it puts these other towns in the NE eyewall. Been watching - He's communicating now with someone and they told him to go to some place around Port St. Joe to a hospital in the area that has some elevation and is inland somewhat (about 25ft above sea level). 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
andyhb Posted October 10, 2018 919.9 mb extrap pressure on the latest pass... 6 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eric In NW Ohio Posted October 10, 2018 Been watching this buoy's readings. It will be darn close to the NE eyewall at landfall. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wendy Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, cstrunk said: That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero based on current trends.... Brett is talking on the live stream. He's going to Port St Joe where there's a parking structure with 25 ft elevation. He better start driving soon though. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
