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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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Bettes and his crew are having to stay put 

 

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Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and
become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area
of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening
is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael
will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the
circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due
to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its
transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a
powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at
least day 4.

Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much
anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected
to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving
across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move
rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this
weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.
East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,
and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards
north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be
post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage
where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the
Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and
Panama City.

3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland
later today and this evening.

4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 29.4N  86.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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8 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Watch for dropsondes released in the southeast quad, because with such high wind speeds, the 'sonde is likely to be in the northeast quad by the time it hits the surface.

 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 14:02Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 34

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 29.1N 86.0W
Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the SSW (195°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
934mb (27.58 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 145° (from the SE) 115 knots (132 mph)
925mb 90m (295 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.8°C (77°F) 155° (from the SSE) 134 knots (154 mph)
850mb 828m (2,717 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 200° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:44Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.12N 85.99W
- Time: 13:44:58Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.25N 85.95W
- Time: 13:48:47Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 138 knots (159 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 126 knots (145 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 753mb to 934mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 131 knots (151 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
934mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78°F)
850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72°F)
825mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 21.4°C (71°F)
753mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) 18.2°C (65°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
934mb (Surface) 145° (from the SE) 115 knots (132 mph)
931mb 155° (from the SSE) 119 knots (137 mph)
928mb 160° (from the SSE) 131 knots (151 mph)
920mb 155° (from the SSE) 140 knots (161 mph)
914mb 160° (from the SSE) 156 knots (180 mph)
910mb 160° (from the SSE) 149 knots (171 mph)
905mb 165° (from the SSE) 134 knots (154 mph)
902mb 165° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph)
894mb 175° (from the S) 138 knots (159 mph)
890mb 180° (from the S) 154 knots (177 mph)
886mb 185° (from the S) 155 knots (178 mph)
881mb 190° (from the S) 162 knots (186 mph)
877mb 190° (from the S) 157 knots (181 mph)
865mb 190° (from the S) 154 knots (177 mph)
857mb 195° (from the SSW) 139 knots (160 mph)
850mb 200° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph)
811mb 210° (from the SSW) 118 knots (136 mph)
753mb 230° (from the SW) 124 knots (143 mph)
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You can really see the irregularly shaped eye in the radar. Doesn't the instability that causes the irregular shape and mesovortices in the eyewall have a name? Anyway, I hope a DOW or RaxPol radar is in position to get a better look.

l2WTntw.png

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Recon has turned and is poised to make a NW to SE pass soon. Judging from the IR and incredibly impressive radar, the only thing that can slow Michael at this point is the start of an ERC. We'll see if there's any core disruption in the next few hours. Not much time now until landfall. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the ERC mentioned in the AFD is going to have time to have much of any impact prior to landfall.

Also, outerwall will be disrupted by land interaction first . . . I think with landfall 3-5 hours away, its a red herring: interesting for posterity though.

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8 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

You can really see the irregularly shaped eye in the radar. Doesn't the instability that causes the irregular shape and mesovortices in the eyewall have a name? Anyway, I hope a DOW or RaxPol radar is in position to get a better look.

l2WTntw.png

Barotropic instability.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking about that....no bueno for the coast.

It's like saying the force of his punch will be dissipated by hitting the jaw.  

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Charley was beginning an ERC prior to landfall. The inner eye continued to intensify however. These processes are difficult to forecast, much more difficult to make any intensity judgements upon without the cycle in an advanced stage. And sometimes that doesn't pan out either as Maria still had extreme core wind in the remnant NE inner wall at landfall.

 

Seems to be too little too late at this point.

 

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Just now, Subtropics said:

He's on the ocean front in mexico beach now.

I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad.

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031
WFUS52 KTAE 101511
EWWTAE
FLC005-037-045-101815-
/O.NEW.KTAE.EW.W.0001.181010T1511Z-181010T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1111 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
  Southern Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...
  Southwestern Franklin County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/.

* At 1109 AM EDT/1009 AM CDT/, National Weather Service Doppler
  radar indicated extreme winds in excess of 130 mph, associated
  with the eyewall of Hurricane Michael, were moving onshore. THIS
  IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/ for
Big Bend of and the Panhandle of Florida.

LAT...LON 2960 8524 2960 8540 2975 8549 2988 8549
      3017 8597 3031 8592 3013 8523 2963 8479
      2953 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1509Z 219DEG 14KT 2948 8588

$$

42-DVD
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22 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Brett Adair is on his way to Mexico Beach with the concern of whether there is a place there (like a parking garage) to hunker down - https://livestormchasing.com/map

That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero based on current trends....

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4 minutes ago, parrisbutch said:

I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad.

I was there in August---Completely agree.

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Port St Joe looks like a decently populated place and is in a terrible spot. Same for Apalachicola. I guess the trend east is better for Panama City Beach but it puts these other towns in the NE eyewall. 

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Just to clarify, I wasn't saying that an ERC would weaken Michael, I was just saying that I think that's the only thing that could stop it at this point. This is going to be a catastrophic hit for Florida. 

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10 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

He's on the ocean front in mexico beach now.

 

8 minutes ago, parrisbutch said:

I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad.

 

4 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero.

 

3 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

https://livestormchasing.com/map Yeah he's in a dangerous spot...

 

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Port St Joe looks like a decently populated place and is in a terrible spot. Same for Apalachicola. I guess the trend east is better for Panama City Beach but it puts these other towns in the NE eyewall. 

Been watching - He's communicating now with someone and they told him to go to some place around Port St. Joe to a hospital in the area that has some elevation and is inland somewhat (about 25ft above sea level).

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4 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

That doesn't sound like a good idea without having a prior idea of where to find adequate shelter. I don't see any parking garages on Google. Mexico Beach will likely be ground zero based on current trends....

Brett is talking on the live stream. He's going to Port St Joe where there's a parking structure with 25 ft elevation. He better start driving soon though.

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