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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

From the little I know of the person you mention I think he is a bad forecaster.  He seems to rely on emotion, gut feeling, and ego more than data.  You don't know me so please refrain from generalizations.  I'm not a downer.  I enjoy exciting weather and powerful storms.  I also find meteorologists to be generally less objective than scientists in other fields.

The latest recon data is very impressive.  It confirms that the storm has continued to strengthen up to the time of the most recent readings.  Remember also that recon data is an instantaneous snapshot.

 

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

I do remember.  I've also watched you post gems like "recon is not reality" and that dry air is "penetrating the western core".  These are just two examples of a string of posts that contain numerous false factual statements.  Your logic sucks too, but that can be argued.

You're letting your downer bias color how you read the data, and your views directly contradict the NWS and every pro posting on the forums or Twitter.  People read this thread and make evacuation decisions.  Be quiet and let people with real knowledge post.

can you two please take this side bar conversation to banter. thanks. 

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14 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, this hurricane played that head-fake game all day yesterday (with open eyewalls, asymmetric bursting, slight tilt) and with perhaps one short pause, it strengthened right through it. It took full advantage of the high CI environment and simply sidestepped the issues by doing continuous bursts of VHTs.

It doesn't have quite the hot tower setup it had yesterday, but that pesky westerly-southwesterly shear isn't impeding on the core nearly as much and now there's a big new outflow channel to the north. All of that intense +PV aggregation from yesterday and last night has strengthened the warm core so much that it's now having no issues sustaining <-80C tops in the southern semicircle (as the tropopause is pushed up).

If the pressure trend flattens out in the next few hours, I'll breathe easier. But I'm not sure I'd count on it.

I've been following the thread closely and while it's been somewhat unreadable at times, your analysis has been spot on. Thanks for bringing the meteorology behind this incredible storm to us!

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It has to be nearing the max potential intensity for this region. It's over warm water, but not a super warm loop current. 

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Still seems to me that landfall will be a little east of Panama City which amazingly is where it looked like it was headed yesterday, two days ago, and 3 days ago. 

If it comes in just east of Panama City, they will probably still take a beating but avoid the entire city being destroyed. Not sure I can say the same for Gulf and Franklin counties.

The storm surge will push inland 10 to 15 miles in places, possibly even more, because the land is so flat

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's been rather humbling to watch this. You've done a good job outlining the development of this. I, for one, never thought it would get to this stage., An amazing display of a rather favorable environment and a wind field that is very tight WRT the damaging aspect of winds. 

This is an unusual case for sure. This storm has shared characteristics more common in some WPac typhoons since it spawned down in the Caribbean.

Definitely going to be an interesting case study if nothing else.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

It has to be nearing the max potential intensity for this region. It's over warm water, but not a super warm loop current. 

Nope

AimNDus.png

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3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

No, it's mesoscale eye dynamics.  Note the mesovortice pattern changing with time.  There is a paper on this.  Small storms can intensify through landfall - see Andrew or Tracy (normally I wouldn't cite to the mega storms, but that's now the gestalt of intensity we're dealing with here so . . .there it is)

Camille was a very compact system, too....nice point.

It makes sense because the smaller circulation has less time to entrain drier, continental air prior to landfall, which is especially relevant with respect to a n GOM LF.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

This is an unusual case for sure. This storm has shared characteristics more common in some WPac typhoons since it spawned down in the Caribbean.

Definitely going to be an interesting case study if nothing else.

In addition, it's rewriting the book on what can come from a CAG. I think the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone to come from a CAG was Nate last year. 

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

It has to be nearing the max potential intensity for this region. It's over warm water, but not a super warm loop current. 

CIMSS has MPI around 890mb, but an upward adjustment for somewhat less favorable shelf waters should still yield 900-910.

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Northeastern GOM shelf waters are shallow, but they were still running above normal for early October. Discussed yesterday that there had yet to be a frontal boundary pass through and limited nights of radiational cooling. What little mixing by TS Gordon quickly rebounded. Shallow layer SSTs are like late August / early Sept. Michael is obviously upwelling it, but the core is also moving too fast to really be hampered by the shallow depth of 26°C isotherm.

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The current NE motion is VERY good news.  If it comes onshore E of Panama City it likely causes substantially less damage.  Population density falls off dramatically E of Panama City.  Fingers crossed.

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Does high tide matter so much on the Gulf Coast? It definitely matters up here. I heard this AM that high tide may coincide with landfall. 

Not as much but it does matter. And yes, it looks like high tides range from 4-9pm in the areas under the biggest threat with landfall and peak surge coming near or just before that window.

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 14:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.5N 86.1W
Location: 53 statute miles (86 km) to the SSW (209°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
940mb (27.76 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.1°C (77°F) Unavailable
925mb 142m (466 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.1°C (75°F) 55° (from the NE) 128 knots (147 mph)
850mb 885m (2,904 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.5°C (71°F) 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
700mb 2,564m (8,412 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 90° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:15Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.47N 86.05W
- Time: 14:15:46Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.44N 86.14W
- Time: 14:18:12Z

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 115 knots (132 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 937mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 173 gpm - 23 gpm (568 geo. feet - 75 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 129 knots (148 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666

Height of the last reported wind: 24 geopotential meters
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
940mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.1°C (77°F)
850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.5°C (71°F)
710mb 16.6°C (61.9°F) 16.6°C (62°F)
698mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
940mb (Surface) Unavailable
937mb 40° (from the NE) 129 knots (148 mph)
936mb 40° (from the NE) 133 knots (153 mph)
925mb 55° (from the NE) 128 knots (147 mph)
900mb 55° (from the NE) 129 knots (148 mph)
872mb 60° (from the ENE) 124 knots (143 mph)
857mb 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
850mb 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
804mb 65° (from the ENE) 105 knots (121 mph)
787mb 70° (from the ENE) 121 knots (139 mph)
771mb 70° (from the ENE) 104 knots (120 mph)
751mb 85° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
698mb 90° (from the E) 117 knots (135 mph)

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 14:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.5N 86.1W
Location: 53 statute miles (86 km) to the SSW (209°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
940mb (27.76 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.1°C (77°F) Unavailable
925mb 142m (466 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.1°C (75°F) 55° (from the NE) 128 knots (147 mph)
850mb 885m (2,904 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.5°C (71°F) 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
700mb 2,564m (8,412 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 90° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:15Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.47N 86.05W
- Time: 14:15:46Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.44N 86.14W
- Time: 14:18:12Z

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 115 knots (132 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 937mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 173 gpm - 23 gpm (568 geo. feet - 75 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 129 knots (148 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666

Height of the last reported wind: 24 geopotential meters
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
940mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.1°C (77°F)
850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.5°C (71°F)
710mb 16.6°C (61.9°F) 16.6°C (62°F)
698mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
940mb (Surface) Unavailable
937mb 40° (from the NE) 129 knots (148 mph)
936mb 40° (from the NE) 133 knots (153 mph)
925mb 55° (from the NE) 128 knots (147 mph)
900mb 55° (from the NE) 129 knots (148 mph)
872mb 60° (from the ENE) 124 knots (143 mph)
857mb 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
850mb 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
804mb 65° (from the ENE) 105 knots (121 mph)
787mb 70° (from the ENE) 121 knots (139 mph)
771mb 70° (from the ENE) 104 knots (120 mph)
751mb 85° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
698mb 90° (from the E) 117 knots (135 mph)

Thats an 8k ft column of nasty.

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Latest vortex message

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 14:36Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 14:12:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.30N 86.12W
B. Center Fix Location: 66 statute miles (107 km) to the SSW (204°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,454m (8,051ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 929mb (27.44 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 10kts (From the ENE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 110kts (126.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the S (187°) of center fix at 14:09:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 299° at 134kts (From the WNW at 154.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the S (187°) of center fix at 14:09:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 112kts (128.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNE (24°) of center fix at 14:15:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 90° at 125kts (From the E at 143.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 14:16:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 134kts (~ 154.2mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the S (187°) from the flight level center at 14:09:30Z

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9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

The current NE motion is VERY good news.  If it comes onshore E of Panama City it likely causes substantially less damage.  Population density falls off dramatically E of Panama City.  Fingers crossed.

Further NE is going to increase the Tallahassee wind damage, however. I'd trade a massive surge at Panama City for that, but Tallahassee Metro has a population of 380,000. 

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An intensifying, or steady state, strong core sub-935 landfall in the US is EXTREMELY rare.  Can't emphasize that enough.  Here's the list from the last 100 years:

1935 'Labor Day' - 892 mb

1969 Camille  - 909 mb (arguably was mid-ERC at landfall, has been reanalyzed at weak cat 5)

1992 Andrew - 922mb (and intensifying)

1919 Keys (near miss) - 927mb (and likely peaking)

1960 Donna - 930mb (but weakening after Keys landfall, likely due to ERC, and significantly weaker at mainland landfall)

1961 Carla - 931mb (but likely mid-ERC at landfall)

1989 Hugo - 934mb

 

You do the math if we're in the high 920s and peaking at landfall.  Very, very rare, and very very serious.  Only saving grace is that, like Carla, this has picked out a relatively empty stretch of coast to hit.

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15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This is an unusual case for sure. This storm has shared characteristics more common in some WPac typhoons since it spawned down in the Caribbean.

Definitely going to be an interesting case study if nothing else.

It looks like the greatly reduced vertical shear in that region is a result of being under the record 500 mb ridging near the East Coast this year. 

ts_al_gmx_VSHD.gif.28684ac8183965f489bf6dbe23056c12.gif

 

 

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