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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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This thing is downright scary, can see a little jog starting to the NNW

 

Did you mean NNE? At any rate, I made the mistake earlier of taking a jog as east of north motion. But in this case, I think an eastern component is no longer temporary.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

 

Did you mean NNE? At any rate, I made the mistake earlier of taking a jog as east of north motion. But in this case, I think an eastern component is no longer temporary.

Whoops, yeah.  Lack of sleep lol.  Last couple frames can see the eastern jog component.  Does that movement become consistent here the next few hours?  I think that is extremely critical.

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USAF just came through the NE Quad and it looks like winds are down about 5-10 knots compared to the NOAA flight around three hours ago. Pressures also seem to be holding steady in the mid 940s. 

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3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Just came through the NE Quad and it looks like winds are down about 5-10 knots compared to the NOAA flight around three hours ago. Pressures also seem to be holding steady in the mid 940s. 

They did find SFMR winds of ~120kts (nearly 140mph) though... 

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8 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Just came through the NE Quad and it looks like winds are down about 5-10 knots compared to the NOAA flight around three hours ago. Pressures also seem to be holding steady in the mid 940s. 

Still has 121kts SFMR which is very impressive

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 7:50Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 7:25:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.08N 86.54W
B. Center Fix Location: 154 statute miles (248 km) to the SSW (200°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,619m (8,593ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 20kts (From the ESE at 23mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 123kts (141.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NE (46°) of center fix at 7:23:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 124kts (From the SE at 142.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix at 7:22:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 7:28:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 298° at 109kts (From the WNW at 125.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 7:29:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)

R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) from the flight level center at 5:44:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SW (230°) from the flight level center

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Looks like a dropsonde inside the NE eyewall measured winds of 116kt (~130mph). Appears to be a gust though. 133kt at 933mb...

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NHC went with 140 mph 943 mb at 5 am. Amazed Michael is this strong even with the not being able to keep a closed SW eyewall (which you can see on radar). Strong convection continues to fire in the east eyewall and IR presentation continues to look good.

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6 hours ago, WeatherDA said:

Is there a chance of Michael further strengthening and seeing as a cat 5 prior to landfall or is the consensus saying that it will remain in the cat 3, possibly cat 4 range? 

LOL....you have your answer!!  I'd give it about a 15% chance at CAT 5. 

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Yikes!!!

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...5 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...RAINBANDS OF MICHAEL SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data has fallen to 937 mb
(27.67 inches).  NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Eye now coming into short range radar range. Good spiral banding into the eyewall (though weak on SW side). The IR presentation combined with radar and recon still imply an intensifying storm. IIRC this is the time when other northern Gulf Storms (i.e. Ivan, Dennis, Opal) were weakening. Probably have 8-9 hours until landfall?

 

RE: latest recon, guess the HWRF wasn't out to lunch with those <940 pressures after all.

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Last message from recon was a closed eye. 

 

Gotta hope for an ERC, this is not good at all for the Florida coast 

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TS wind gusts are now on shore in Apalachicola. Conditions are going to start going downhill rapidly. Radar presentation is very good, no "half a hurricane" look that you often see with N Gulf storms.

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Gulf of Mexico Tide Gauge at Apalachicola showing 4.5 ft surge. This is already the 4th highest stage here on record. Current record is 7.35 ft on 7/10/2005, associated with Hurcn Dennis.

 

image.png.b37ef9811445c6f54add234adacd02aa.png

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