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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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It may actually be more violent in its current state.  Some of the 2 or 3 drops right in a convective burst around the eyewall showed some very strong winds just above the surface, high Cat 4 low Cat 5.  I would imagine if they had a magic sonde that could follow the burst around a lot of those winds would work there way down, albeit in a small area for only a short time, but a short time would be all it would take at landfall.  The persistent meso vortices in these bursts and the jump in lightning when they occur, they almost act like super super cells.

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I am actually surprised by the placement of coldest tops in the SW CDO at the moment. But noticeably more concerning is the clearly defined convective band wrapping around the eye.

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5 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

This thing just exploded on infrared. -80+ cloud tops surrounding most of the eye. Eastern side of Michael is back with a vengeance 

Didn't take long. maybe 30-45 minutes to go from looking like a black and white cookie to almost perfectly textbook.

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9 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Pinhole eye. Watch out. This thing is really taking off 

Coincidentally and ironically pretty much at the same time you wrote that I was thinking that the most unlikely thing to happen with Michael is for it to develop a pinhole eye (just a random thought). I consider a pinhole to be smaller and of course stable so this is in jest.

Any shots of that intense lightning on IR?

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I hope this isnt consider banter, but is there any real reason the NHC pulled waaaay back on their windspeed probabilities along the coast ans inland as well as estimated surge on the 11 update?

Trough enhanced TCs are incredibly difficult to forecast for upper end intensity. I mentioned earlier that factors have to come into alignment and be even more supportive than in a normal ridge vs low shear environment. What you have is hyper-instability vs encroachment of mid level flow into circulation. All you can do is go with model intensity guidance; but clearly if instability and divergence aloft wins out, you're going to have a TC that outperforms that guidance. Think of Charley. But more often than not, wind shear wins. It's incredibly unfair to criticize even the best forecasters against such.

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Also of note in the USAF's first pass (NW to SE) is the wind and pressure gradient surrounding the has become much tighter. Curious to see if we're going to get a surprise when they come in from the northeast. SFMR values didn't get above 106 knots. Still waiting on dropsonde information. 

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Hey, so I'm new here.  But I discovered the site during Florence and am very interested in what Michael will do as I am in the Panhandle. 

I've been watching the track, and I realize the turn NNE isn't expected until it gets closer to 28 or even 28.5N. All the models have consolidated for a PCB or Mexico Beach landfall, but what's your gut on whether or not this turns late and brings it closer to Destin? It seems to be defying a lot of odds here and the Western side of the storm looks the most impressive on the latest IR. Will that help it resist the frontal boundary at all? It appears on the water vapor imagery, that the leading edge of the front is just crashing into it and not doing much to push it.  

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4 minutes ago, JakeFusion said:

All the models have consolidated for a PCB or Mexico Beach landfall, but what's your gut on whether or not this turns late and brings it closer to Destin?

I doubt the center will track any farther west than Panama City.

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It was open on the SW side for a short period.

There are going to continue to be temporary breaks in the SW eyewall due to impeding mid level encroachment. Recon has to report the empirical data they observe, period. But clearly there are fills already showing up on long range base radar.

 

Newsflash: An eyewall doesn't have to be 360° perfect to be intense.

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