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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Michael

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GFS came east of 18z by a few miles, but the whole front was came pretty for east for a 6hr change 18hrs out.

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They're making the most of this pass.  Multiple eyewall punches.  163mph at 1100 feet.  Another good burst of convection like this things repeatedly been doing, yikes.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Best wind the recon has found while looping around is 130 kts flight level, 100 kts SFMR.

I doubt this has weakened that much. Maybe just not good readings. I think the intensity will hold till landfall or possibly slightly increase

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20 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS came east of 18z by a few miles, but the whole front was came pretty for east for a 6hr change 18hrs out.

Actually, about 30 miles to be exact — MORE than enough to matter. Now a direct hit on Mexico Beach. Also, passss MUCH closer to TLH which is not good at all. Actually this shift -  if accurate — is a rather big decelopment. 

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Best wind the recon has found while looping around is 130 kts flight level, 100 kts SFMR.

Are you sure it's looping the full eyewall? It looks like it's only looping one section due to wind direction. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I doubt this has weakened that much. Maybe just not good readings. I think the intensity will hold till landfall or possibly slightly increase

The convection is currently weakest in the east quad, where the recon plane is sampling, so that could have an impact.

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Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 2:26Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 28 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 2Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 26.9N 86.3W
Location: 247 statute miles (397 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -339m (-1,112 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
963mb (28.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 26.2°C (79°F) 150° (from the SSE) 90 knots (104 mph)
925mb 351m (1,152 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 175° (from the S) 142 knots (163 mph)
850mb 1,091m (3,579 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.8°C (69°F) 195° (from the SSW) 111 knots (128 mph)
700mb 2,761m (9,058 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) 13.4°C (56°F) 215° (from the SW) 121 knots (139 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 2:13Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.91N 86.34W
- Time: 2:13:46Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 27.05N 86.29W
- Time: 2:18:25Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 125 knots (144 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 117 knots (135 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 692mb to 962mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 115 knots (132 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
963mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 26.2°C (79°F)
850mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.8°C (69°F)
692mb 13.8°C (56.8°F) 13.1°C (56°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
963mb (Surface) 150° (from the SSE) 90 knots (104 mph)
961mb 150° (from the SSE) 92 knots (106 mph)
960mb 150° (from the SSE) 102 knots (117 mph)
959mb 150° (from the SSE) 109 knots (125 mph)
956mb 155° (from the SSE) 117 knots (135 mph)
941mb 165° (from the SSE) 122 knots (140 mph)
938mb 170° (from the S) 125 knots (144 mph)
933mb 175° (from the S) 137 knots (158 mph)
925mb 175° (from the S) 142 knots (163 mph)
918mb 180° (from the S) 130 knots (150 mph)
908mb 180° (from the S) 123 knots (142 mph)
881mb 190° (from the S) 125 knots (144 mph)
865mb 190° (from the S) 121 knots (139 mph)
859mb 195° (from the SSW) 112 knots (129 mph)
850mb 195° (from the SSW) 111 knots (128 mph)
692mb 220° (from the SW) 120 knots (138 mph)

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The convection is currently weakest in the east quad, where the recon plane is sampling, so that could have an impact.

I honestly think this is probably a development that favors the storm, since this has been where the convection has been strongest all day. Now the strongest convection is upshear? Not seeing how this bodes well.

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What do you guys think of the east side of the hurricane? It seems like convection is rapidly increasing on the east side of the eye, the eye itself is clearing off, but is that dry air to the east going to try and mess with the center of circulation?

 

goes16_ir_14L_201810100423.jpg?26.6273.5

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15 minutes ago, Freshgeek said:

What do you guys think of the east side of the hurricane? It seems like convection is rapidly increasing on the east side of the eye, the eye itself is clearing off, but is that dry air to the east going to try and mess with the center of circulation?

Yes... thin, but deep convection is just about to complete the ring.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yes.  Thin, but deep convection is just about to complete the ring.

Radar showing hot towers on the NE and SW eyewall and a complete ring.  This will easily go sub 930mb if that persists a couple hours.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Radar showing hot towers on the NE and SW eyewall and a complete ring.  This will easily go sub 930mb if that persists a couple hours.

Not sure this thing is going sub 930... unless we get another round of RI

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1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Not sure this thing is going sub 930... unless we get another round of RI

Despite my post just above, I agree. This is already a very strong system. The only way I see it pushing that kind of intensity is if the eyewall completely closes off and you get very strong convection to fire consistently. As good as this hurricane has looked, it has not been able to do that yet. 

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1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Not sure this thing is going sub 930... unless we get another round of RI

2 hrs of the current satellite presentation and it definitely will be.  Better hope something disrupts it.

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest HWRF gets the central pressure down to 925mb at 18z Wednesday. 

hwrf_ref_14L_6.png

Good God.  Maybe (likely?) too aggressive but it has a real shot at sub 940 mb/solid cat 4 imo.  

There's only about 12 hours left for an ERC to disrupt. Tick tock.

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Despite my post just above, I agree. This is already a very strong system. The only way I see it pushing that kind of intensity is if the eyewall completely closes off and you get very strong convection to fire consistently. As good as this hurricane has looked, it has not been able to do that yet. 

 

Agree that you need symmetrical convection to wrap the eye to get significantly stronger than what we have right now, which we already have a strong major hurricane besides. But cold -80°C tops are wrapping the eastern eyewall, so who knows. Michael may not be done.

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I just noticed there is a recent dropsonde from the circling recon plane that was not labeled as "eye", but it appears to be.  It says 949 mb with a 56 kt wind, so it may be about 944 mb now.

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Just now, Windspeed said:

 


Agree that you need symmetrical convection to wrap the eye to get significantly stronger than what we have right now, which we already have a strong major hurricane besides. But cold -80°C tops are wrapping the eye, so who knows. Michael may not be done.

 

Yeah, I'm really not sure. If there was ever a time to get that convection to wrap, this is it. It's just so fascinating. How often have we had a hurricane with a partial eyewall rapidly intensify and potentially make landfall as a category four? I don't think anyone knows what is going to happen. 

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