WxWatcher007 Posted October 5, 2018 Pretty surprised we don't have more talk about this, especially considering that all the major operational guidance has shown some level of development. Still broad and disorganized, but nothing like tracking a good ole Central American Gyre. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. 1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad area of low pressure is centered near the coast of Honduras. This system is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from Central America east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward the northwest and north. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America, and these rains should then spread over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Avila 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2018 Lots of other weather going on right now with crashy the cold front and a fairly substantial precipitation event setting up across the Southern Plains this weekend and early next week. I didn't realize it had even been upgraded to a cherry. I guess the QPF map will be filled with a couple different color-filled maximums over the next week. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2018 ECMWF hints at multiple rounds of Caribbean cyclogenesis in the coming two weeks. First the system that moves into the GOM and then late next weekend another W. Caribbean system. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncforecaster89 Posted October 6, 2018 I have been aware of this disturbance, myself, but in its current broad and very disorganized state, there's not much to say...without a more defined and consolidated low. For instance, the possibility exists that the current low being tracked may not be the one that ultimately develops into a TC (i.e. another area of vorticity could spin down to the surface under an area of deep convection within the gyre). As such, I have always taken a more conservative approach to TC observation and forecasting than many of my peers, who often times were/are in a rush to be "first"...when patience was/is more prudent. Edit: Wanted to clarify that the second paragraph is not, in any way, directed to WxWatcher or anyone else on this board. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6, 2018 1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said: I have been aware of this disturbance, myself, but in its current broad and very disorganized state, there's not much to say...without a more defined and consolidated low. For instance, the possibility exists that the current low being tracked may not be the one that ultimately develops into a TC (i.e. another area of vorticity could spin down to the surface under an area of deep convection within the gyre). As such, I have always taken a more conservative approach to TC observation and forecasting than many of my peers, who often times were/are in a rush to be "first"...when patience was/is more prudent. Edit: Wanted to clarify that the second paragraph is not, in any way, directed to WxWatcher or anyone else on this board. Yeah. CAGs are always really interesting to follow to me. Not the highest of ceilings generally, but because of the uncertainty of what may pop you can certainly learn a lot about tropical cyclone genesis. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted October 6, 2018 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. 1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low pressure is centered about 80 miles north of the coast of Honduras, however, the system is somewhat elongated and does not yet have a closed circulation. Heavier showers and thunderstorms have been developing near and to the east of the low's center during the past several hours, and extensive cloudiness and showers extend elsewhere across the western Caribbean Sea eastward over the Greater Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Berg Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2018 I'm shocked there isn't alot of talk The models are getting really interesting with this storm. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TPAwx Posted October 6, 2018 Euro 12z ensembles Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6, 2018 NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vice-Regent Posted October 6, 2018 Very nice. This could be a potent landfaller. The stars are aligning for such an event. Obviously sympathies go out for those in the affected path. Hopefully it hits a sparsely populated portion of the Gulf Coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6, 2018 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection is becoming better organized. While the system is currently not well enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current indications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Based on the need for warnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen. Although the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the system should strengthen through the forecast period, the global models indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h. In addition, the strongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is likely to slow development. Based on this, the intensity forecast is in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then shows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is forecast to diminish. The intensity forecast is closest to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. For the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally northward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over the central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a faster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over the northern Gulf coast in about 96 h. After landfall, the system is likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track guidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario. However, it should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track spread in the guidance at the 96-h point. The forecast track lies just to the west of the various consensus models. Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen: 1. This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 Gradually getting more organized. Should have a depression soon. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 HWRF goes a little crazy There is a significant model spread in speed, which could be a factor in how strong it is able to get. The above HWRF is already closing in on the coast Wednesday morning, while the 12z ECMWF was much slower. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted October 7, 2018 00z euro 954mb at 96hrs, looks like it's going between Panama city and Appalachacola. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2018 Noticing a significant strengthening trend on the globals between modeled NE turn and landfall. The 00z ECMWF making Michael a major hurricane got my attention. As several have pointed out including Cowan in his video update last night, the system is fighting upper level shear due to strong westerly flow above 400 mb thanks to an elongated upper trough that stretches into the western Atlantic. This flow is getting pinched off however as a new and advancing strong surface-to-upper trough with cold front moves out of the western CONUS into the GOM. Favorable divergent flow above the 300 mb layer should establish over Michael by tomorrow evening into Tuesday. However, as Michael continues NNW or N in the 700 to 500 mb steering column, 500 to 300 mb SW flow may keep it in check as mid level shear may undercut the mid level circulation and disrupt strong intensfication. What has to be watched closely is how fast the entire steering column and Michael turns into aligned SW flow as this will decrease mid level shear undercutting the cloud canopy and allow better vertical stacking within the cyclone. Simply put, the faster Michael turns NE, the faster significant intensification can occur and the greater the chance for Michael to become a strong hurricane prior to landfall. A nice northerly outflow channel/jet should already have established by this turn and SSTs are still sufficient as Michael will be moving faster than for any significant upwelling to be an issue. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TPAwx Posted October 7, 2018 7 hours ago, Amped said: 00z euro 954mb at 96hrs, looks like it's going between Panama city and Appalachacola. Intensity up on most of the models, and a larger cluster of Euro members show a NE bend. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 Didn't get into the VWS stuff that you just posted, Windspeed, but totally agree. Posted this in the MA thread. Obviously the post below has a northeast focus. Don't read into it as if I'm calling for a TS from DC to BOS 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I always perk up more when we talk about Caribbean and homebrew action and here we are. The guidance had been hinting at this potential for weeks, (good job for those of us that pointed it out ) and now it looks like we have a TD that is gradually organizing. One thing that is very impressive this morning is the convection. That is a very strong envelope of convection for a TD. We'll see if that persists, but I think thats a signal for a system that should continue to at least gradually intensify despite the current shear. The key early question: What's the ceiling? Usually with something that develops from a Central American Gyre (CAG), the ceiling is pretty low, as systems develop from a sprawling area of disturbed wx and it takes a lot to consolidate into a "pretty" and mature tropical cyclone. However, we've seen some named storms from a CAG evolve into hurricanes, with Nate being a prime example from just a year ago. It has been interesting to see the guidance bullish on development the past few days, and that continues today with the last few runs of the GFS and the 00z European run looking even more impressive with significant intensification over the next few days. Let's start by looking at the environment first. 1. SSTs/TCHP Both look pretty good (I substituted my usual TCHP plot with the 26 C depth plot because of trouble with the website) and with a decent forward speed and projected track it looks like future Michael will avoid the cold eddies you see below. No real issues here. 2. Wind Shear Wind shear looks to be one of the potential limiting factors. Right now, the forecast is for the ribbon of shear to the north of future Michael to continue to shift north, leaving light to moderate shear in the path of the system. One thing we have to watch for, just as with Gordon and Florence, is if there is a level of subtly in the upper wind profile that ends up aiding ventilation or hindering the consolidation of a core. As I often say, we need to see a strong inner core before we can get on board with forecasting significant to rapid intensification. The globals right now are bullish on a favorable upper wind profile and the NHC has taken note. We're going to have to watch in real time to see what happens. 3. Moisture Just a quick look here. Looking at the latest GFS, there looks to be dry air lurking in the Gulf as the system moves north. We're going to have to watch how that impacts the core and western extent of the rain, as any dry air entrainment will have an impact on development given the small window for intensification. For these kind of systems I definitely want to be on the eastern side unless we're talking about PRE possibilities which would extend heavy rain much further north/west than usual. Overall, I think this has a really good chance of becoming a hurricane, and if shear/dry air can be kept at bay, I could see a period of intensification that gets this to a low end category 2. Seeing the guidance so bullish on development is a cause for pause. We'll have a better idea of potential once the HH get in the system to sample the core today and especially tomorrow. Overall Track The steering pattern is pretty simple. The massive high pressure begins to slide east, which steers Michael north. Trough comes from the west and instead of a stall like Florence, this has a much better chance of following climo...movement north to NNE to NE as it picks up speed inland. Obviously, slight differences in timing and speed will determine how far north this gets. I think there's certainly potential to see this further north and inland and rain (less bullish on wind) impacts up the east coast. It's very interesting that the NHC has this moving fast enough to remain a 50mph TS right off the coast of VA. The Euro is slower and much further south, which is also a possibility. Definitely something worth watching. This isn't like many of the other systems we've tracked in the past that were unfavored to impact the region from the start. This is how the MA and NE often get remnant action. With the speed of the system, a favorable track and trough interaction could create a more interesting sensible wx impact. At any rate, this could be the last hurrah before we leap into the postseason. Happy tracking. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NavarreDon Posted October 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Didn't get into the VWS stuff that you just posted, Windspeed, but totally agree. Posted this in the MA thread. Obviously the post below has a northeast focus. Don't read into it as if I'm calling for a TS from DC to BOS Thanks for posting. Obviously model error is an issue this early in the game but, they seem to be edging E with a potential landfall. That being said I'm watching closely from Navarre. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NavarreDon said: Thanks for posting. Obviously model error is an issue this early in the game but, they seem to be edging E with a potential landfall. That being said I'm watching closely from Navarre. Yeah, I feel like there should be a disclaimer every time saying that intensity forecasting is hard, and models are better with track once we have a well defined center. The latest global runs are concerning. Things are still a bit disorganized based on microwave and IR imagery. Although the steering flow looks straightforward, it's always the slight shifts in timing, etc. that impact track and who gets the center. I'd definitely be watching from your spot. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at a possibly conservative 30 kt. The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive HWRF and HCCA models. The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days, with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for both the along and cross track spread of the guidance. Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen: 1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 19.2N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TPAwx Posted October 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Thanks for posting. Obviously model error is an issue this early in the game but, they seem to be edging E with a potential landfall. That being said I'm watching closely from Navarre. Good luck up there. There’s nothing at this time in the steering pattern that raises real concern for Tampa/St Pete, but I have family further north near the Homosassa area. Nonetheless, I’m doing the gas and Publix runs today. Should be TS status by the 5 or 11 PM NHC update and that will get the public’s attention all along the coast. Will be interesting to see how/if this breaks up the red tide around here and south. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7, 2018 Leaning at the current time towards it being stronger than currently forecast and also probably not hooking as hard at landfall. I would expect again we will see a delay in the incoming trof or not see it come close at all as the trend has been the last month anytime we see a modeled plains trof making eastward progress. The landfall point may be close but the system may move more N or NNE after landfall. The intensity hunch is just what we’ve seen the last few years in the Gulf. In the absence of any marked shear like a Hermine these things rarely don’t reach at least cat 2 status in there 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted October 7, 2018 GFS is too far east in th short range. CMC and EURO are further west, and the center now appears to be close to the Yucatan coast based on visisble imagery. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 Recon en route. 12z GFS still bullish on intensification. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted October 7, 2018 000 WTNT64 KNHC 071653 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael. SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown Special update from the NHC 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 They could have just waited for recon lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2018 They could have just waited for recon lol True but the data is already there for the upgrade. I think the issue is close proximity to shoreline and strong easterly surface flow already occurring over Cozumel. Needing this named so boating interests there take it seriously. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: True but the data is already there for the upgrade. I think the issue is close proximity to shoreline and strong easterly surface flow already occurring over Cozumel. Needing this named so boating interests there take it seriously. Yeah, I was mostly kidding. This has been a long recon flight to Michael. I’m ready to see how organized the inner structure is. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7, 2018 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted October 7, 2018 Euro is way east at 72hrs, so is the UKMET. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites