CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Riding that 02-03 analog as if it's a matter of life and deathSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 First eye candy of the season, enjoy it, will be gone soon lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: First eye candy of the season, enjoy it, will be gone soon lol Funny thing is while it probably is a unicorn run, the prevailing theme during that timeframe has been to bring in th southern jet with a LP system somewhere in the northeast that drags down the coldest air of the season...if it's not the scenario shown it could very well be the first LES event in the first part of November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 What is the FV3 version of the GFS? https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3 Anyone know the accuracy of it compared to the normal GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Wind is crazy tonight! House is rattling! Gusts to 47mph last hour at KBUF! Gusting over 40 for 4 straight hours now... Nice seeing the lake response firing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 Definitely some potential at end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Top of the 219 in Colden an inch plus of graupel accumulated on the roadway. Passed two cars in the ditch. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Man that sw that's going to move through later on this evening and the overnight hours looks pretty vigorous on satellite as well as some of the radar returns I'm seeing out in WNY. Surprised there hasn't been a little more traffic on this thread but I guess the bark could be much bigger than the bite sometimes but it sure looks like heavy rain in many locations. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Northern stream dominant on the 12z euro for day 8/9.. A storm to follow nonetheless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 5:00 and still in the upper 50s doubt any Frozen precip falls anywhere near the lake plain tonightSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Northern stream dominant on the 12z euro for day 8/9.. A storm to follow nonetheless.. I'll take the compromise between the both of themSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Tell you one thing, the temperature difference between the two models is just weird from 8 days out.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Crazy storms this afternoon! Possible tornado!? Check out this wind damage in West Seneca... Large portion of an apartment building roof was ripped off! Several trees downed in the neighborhood as well... . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 A confirmed tornado in west Seneca today. Devin near you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 WOW!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 A confirmed tornado in west Seneca today. Devin near you? That’s right near where I grew up. It’s the subdivision behind Ninos Pizza right along the WS OP boarder... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s right near where I grew up. It’s the subdivision behind Ninos Pizza right along the WS OP boarder... . Yep 2.5 miles due south of me. Pretty crazy stuff for a October. Did have some gusty winds, lots of thunder and lightning, and quite a bit of graupel and hail according to my nest cam. I was actually in Hamburg all day though buying a new vehicle so unfortunately I wasn't able to catch any action first hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 Snow and a tornado in one day. Didn’t think that was possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Not a bad day today near ‘Cuse. Not to mention ‘Cuse victory. Solid fall weather although mostly cloudy and no rain other than an early sprinkle. Forecasts were definately more pessimistic than reality. Hopefully same on Sunday, just chillier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Snow and a tornado in one day. Didn’t think that was possible.Anything is possible when it comes to Weather, and I mean anything. I was living in Fort Collins in 1998 and I can remember it like it happened yesterday. It was a warm July, yes July afternoon, and I can't remember the exact temp it got to that particular afternoon, but safe to say, it got pretty warm. When we got to the bar, for happy hr that day, it was about 5:30 and like I said it was Sunny and warm when we got there, but all hell broke loose at about 11. I never in my life seen anything like what I seen nor experienced that night in Colorado, or shall I say, what I saw that night. When we left the bar, I was in shorts, as was everyone else including the women we were hanging with. When we stepped outside it was absolutely pouring snow with about 2" OTG already. I've never seen it go from 78F-82F down to 32 with heavy snow in matter of a few hrs let's say but altitude can easily do it. When that cold front came through, which I later found out was the culprit for the anomalous weather we were experiencing that night in early July, everything changed and quick, because when we left it was like a shock to my system, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Not a bad day today near ‘Cuse. Not to mention ‘Cuse victory. Solid fall weather although mostly cloudy and no rain other than an early sprinkle. Forecasts were definately more pessimistic than reality. Hopefully same on Sunday, just chillier.Yes they were, as the temps were not expected to get to where they got so that was a surprise, that's why I don't think we're gonna see anything other than a few pessimistic flurries, come tomorrow, well I dont think anyway.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Anything is possible when it comes to Weather, and I mean anything. I was living in Fort Collins in 1998 and I can remember it like it happened yesterday. It was a warm July, yes July afternoon, and I can't remember the exact temp it got to that particular afternoon, but safe to say, it got pretty warm. When we got to the bar, for happy hr that day, it was about 5:30 and like I said it was Sunny and warm when we got there, but all hell broke loose at about 11. I never in my life seen anything like what I seen nor experienced that night in Colorado, or shall I say, what I saw that night. When we left the bar, I was in shorts, as was everyone else including the women we were hanging with. When we stepped outside it was absolutely pouring snow with about 2" OTG already. I've never seen it go from 78F-82F down to 32 with heavy snow in matter of a few hrs let's say but altitude can easily do it. When that cold front came through, which I later found out was the culprit for the anomalous weather we were experiencing that night in early July, everything changed and quick, because when we left it was like a shock to my system, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk That happens all the time though. We get cold fronts here where it goes from 70s to 20s in a few hours with lake effect bands coming behind it dumping feet of snow. What happened today is extremely rare. I didn't think you could get a supercell like what happened over West Seneca and snow in the same day. It has to only happened a handful of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Still sitting at 43F so I doubt we see anything here, where I am, about 20 miles inland from the shore. A stary night out there tonight as theres not a cloud in the sky, well at least at the moment there isn't. It also feels extremely dry as the CF pushed through so I'm feeling quite pessimistic about seeing any precip at all, nevermind whether its frozen or not. We have to get the moisture in here first.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Apparently NWS is saying this tornado was previously a waterspout that came though Buffalo Harbor, lifted up for 10 minutes but maintained rotation and touched back down again. Last year we had a lot of these funnel clouds move over land and get spotted. But this is the first time I think I’ve ever heard of one setting back down. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Apparently NWS is saying this tornado was previously a waterspout that came though Buffalo Harbor, lifted up for 10 minutes but maintained rotation and touched back down again. Last year we had a lot of these funnel clouds move over land and get spotted. But this is the first time I think I’ve ever heard of one setting back down. . Yeah waterspouts are common this time of year, but tornados. I don't ever remember a Tornado with temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Yeah they happen quite often off Lake Ontario as well, but I never heard of one actually forming over water, dissipating then reforming back over land is that what they're saying happened, if so that definitely doesn't happen too often.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Just need it a little more west lol Good run for the center of the state up into northern NE.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Just need it a little more west lol Good run for the center of the state up into northern NE..Wow, it seems as though both models seem to be keying in on the same time frame which from this lead time is quite unusual to say the least. I'm almost certain the GFS will lose it when we get between 4-6 day lead time. If this does come to fruition, this might have to go into the books as one of the earliest. I think it'll make it at least into the top 10. If these two models look this way come Wed, then ill jump on the train otherwise I'll be a bystander for now. Anyway, started as IP/SN mix but it looks like its gonna switch over pretty quickly as it looks like there's a band setting up on a NNW trajectory right over my house. Yeah I know, not a conducive wind flow, but don't laugh, as I've seen a band connected to James Bay once, on this trajectory, and Lake Effect King can vouch for me on that one, cause we couldnt believe what we were seeing, lol. It looked pretty awesome on both the water vapor loop and the visible sat image as it was quite evident on both.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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