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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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NWS doesn't issue a forecast, they issue a probability map, which anyone with a brain can do, on a seasonal basis so I wouldnt exactly call it a forecast. When its Normal, that actually means theres an equal chance for below to above normal temps, lol.

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22 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Sorry but this is False. The winter of 14-15 (-4.8) was actually colder at KBUF then 13-14 (-4.0) was. Also last year was also below normal albeit slightly but we still finished at 0.7 below average for the winter and had it not been for the 6th warmest February on record (mostly because of an incredible record breaking 2 week stretch) we would have finished further below normal. I’m not saying that we’re below average often, and with global warming it definitley seems that things are on the positive anomaly side than the negative one, but to say the winter of 13-14 was the only below average winter is wrong. I too believe with a weak nino we will see average to slightly below average temperatures but could easily see that change if El Niño becomes stronger than forecast or we get stuck on the wrong end of a stubborn teleconnection. 

I use Dec-March timeframe for winter usually not Dec-Feb, maybe that's where I'm coming from. Either way only one below average year in the last 8. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/coopdata

 

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The fact that NOAA only uses ENSO for winter forecasts seems ridiculous to me. They are weather professionals, yet seem to ignore the many different factors that affect a season.

It's weird because even if you use Ninos, they are predicting a weak one which usually results in below normal temps across NE. 

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Anyone on Facebook I recommend you following Kevin Williams... TV met in ROC he does daily Facebook live segments and really goes geek deep into some topics. Lately he has been showing the various international long range winter models and dissecting them... Today he touched on the NOAA outlook and said they favor the warm biased models and he thinks its directly the result of the first half of October showing well below average snowfall in Siberia. He doesn’t buy the solution fully verifying... Anyways some great material to watch/listen too...


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27 minutes ago, tim123 said:

That guy is great. One of best in the nation. He was let go from channel 10 for not buying into global warming narative

Any proof that was the reason he was let go? I highly doubt he got let go for that reason. 

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