TugHillMatt Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here is a good link to get caught up on the last 25 years of LES events. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=A Redfields biggest event: 142" https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=L Oh, yes. I have been spent many an hour perusing through these maps. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/ny/buffalo/KBUF/date/1976-10 Around mid month it got colder and stayed cold and snowy the entire winter. It's a very rare analog. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow Super interesting link to that season. I looked at the data for October and it appears it will line up with the way this month is forecast to play out. It started very warm that year for the first week then we fell off a cliff but averaged 40's and 50's the rest of the month. Looking at the next 15 days which takes us into the last week of October we will average the 40's and 50's the rest of the month. I am super interested to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 So I still can't download pics or snapshots but I implore you all to check out the GFS 00z model on tropical tidbits...it would have a full blown LES downwind of the lakes bullseye over tug and southern tier...and just for giggles 6z in same time frame shows the same...hour 196 to 224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Hurricane Michael is looking incredible right now. Almost a Cat 5 storm about to hit a very vulnerable beach side that has never seen a cat 4 storm in recorded history. It came out of no where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 So I still can't download pics or snapshots but I implore you all to check out the GFS 00z model on tropical tidbits...it would have a full blown LES downwind of the lakes bullseye over tug and southern tier...and just for giggles 6z in same time frame shows the same...hour 196 to 224 Hmmmm..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I feel real sorry for people along the northern coast of Florida along the Panhandle. Apalachicola is getting pummeled right now. Wherever that eastern eyeball passes over there's going to be catastrophic damage and I seriously think the back areas of the Gulf are going to be rearranged forever. It should hit as a Cat 4 but the latest adv has the pressure down to 929 which is the lowest recorded pressure ever within a Tropical System. It could reach a low Cat 5 with ease as well with waters off the immediate coast up near the upper 80's. I hope ppl took heed to the warnings and evacuations that were issued because if they stayed, forget about it.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/ny/buffalo/KBUF/date/1976-10 Around mid month it got colder and stayed cold and snowy the entire winter. It's a very rare analog. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow02-03' I don't think is that far off as well. My all time favorite Winter and I've been through some good ones but nothing like that one, at least up here, North of the Syracuse area. A constant barrage of synoptic systems with LES events in between systems. A dream of a pattern that lasted close to 6 weeks straight.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I feel real sorry for people along the northern coast of Florida along the Panhandle. Apalachicola is getting pummeled right now. Wherever that eastern eyeball passes over there's going to be catastrophic damage and I seriously think the back areas of the Gulf are going to be rearranged forever. It should hit as a Cat 4 but the latest adv has the pressure down to 929 which is the lowest recorded pressure ever within a Tropical System. It could reach a low Cat 5 with ease as well with waters off the immediate coast up near the upper 80's. I hope ppl took heed to the warnings and evacuations that were issued because if they stayed, forget about it. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I've never seen anything like it in all the years of following weather. From not being talked about to nearly Cat 5 landfall in northern GOM in a few days. People down there barely had any time to prepare. Going to be some insane devastation with the storm surge thats predicted in those low lying areas. Weather is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I feel real sorry for people along the northern coast of Florida along the Panhandle. Apalachicola is getting pummeled right now. Wherever that eastern eyeball passes over there's going to be catastrophic damage and I seriously think the back areas of the Gulf are going to be rearranged forever. It should hit as a Cat 4 but the latest adv has the pressure down to 929 which is the lowest recorded pressure ever within a Tropical System. It could reach a low Cat 5 with ease as well with waters off the immediate coast up near the upper 80's. I hope ppl took heed to the warnings and evacuations that were issued because if they stayed, forget about it. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Good point...this is starting to take an Andrew type look to it...rapid intensification just off shore...will be devastating for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I think there's an extremely good shot at seeing an early season event whether it be of the synoptic variety or a LES event. I'm absolutely loving the 3arly look of the season. This could be a wire to wire season. The brown stripe down the back of the woolley bear caterpillar is extremely thick this year, indicative of an extremely cold and snowy winter season, RLMAO!!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Pressure is now down to 923, WOW!!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 A rain wrapped tornado has to probably be the worst event to ever get caught in, No? I mean, you can't see the funnel of the storm and then the wind increases exponentially as the storm, within a storm, nears ones locatin. This is History we are witnessing as far as weather is concerned and I believe it's just the beginning of a very interesting Winter season. If this Winter is as extreme as this past Summer, then we are in for some season.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Michael is going to completely obliterate that disgusting monster of a Bermuda High that's been ever present it seems like.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Pressure down to 919 now and it looks like the Western eyeball looks stronger than the eastern side with cloud tops approaching hing uncharted territory, lol. Just an incredible storm system and a testament that the end of this world, IMO, will be of the Natural variety!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Pressure down to 919 now and it looks like the Western eyeball looks stronger than the eastern side with cloud tops approaching hing uncharted territory, lol. Just an incredible storm system and a testament that the end of this world, IMO, will be of the Natural variety! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Witnessing history today. Take it all in. Can't wait to get out of work to watch all the webcams/chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Michael is going to completely obliterate that disgusting monster of a Bermuda High that's been ever present it seems like. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk That was my exact statement a few days ago!!! This storm will give us the break we needed to get our weather back to more normal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Today was the last 80 degree we'll see until next May-June some time, hopefully, and thank the good Lord above because enough is enough now with this disgusting warmth that just doesnt't wanna let go. Its grip remains in tact.across the area. At least for the next 12-+18hrs or so, lol. Then some abrupt changes will occur after Michael passes through to our immediate S&E and displaces the SE Ridge in an abrupt manner as we go from 70-80's to 40-50's with lows in the upper 20's lower 30's so to me, that's an abrupt change, and it just gets better from there. Latest 12z GFS, after Michael passes through, brings in trough after trough after trough along with an apparent PNA Ridge. Don't really know how long something like that will last but if we want any kind of sustained cold and snow with excessive lake effect snow events, or potential events at least, some kind of favorable telleconnection combo needs to be present. If the ATL cooperates with the PAC then we're golden but if it goes the other way then all bets are off, but I dont see any indication of that right now. Cold pools in both oceans are in favorablepositions as well as our ENSO position with lots of ConvectionEStbof the DL already. Cold.water off the Baja helps the cause as well so I think we look real good for at least an early blast from good ol man Winter and Iant wait. I have the AC running on Oct 10 here in Syracuse NY, go figure, with yelps approaching the mid 80's almost eclipsing the old record. Close but no cigar.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 9 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: 02-03' I don't think is that far off as well. My all time favorite Winter and I've been through some good ones but nothing like that one, at least up here, North of the Syracuse area. A constant barrage of synoptic systems with LES events in between systems. A dream of a pattern that lasted close to 6 weeks straight. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk And, unfortunately, BUF NWS doesn't have the summary for that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 First flakes of the season in the PNC in the hills south of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Share Posted October 12, 2018 My body almost went into shock walking outside this morning. Definitely going to take some time getting used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Share Posted October 12, 2018 There will be the potential for accumulating snow in higher elevations off the tug and southern tier by next weekend. (Dusting-2") Possible first flakes for lower elevations next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Finally a change to more autumn weather! Looking forward to seeing how severe this cold season will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 So did anyone else see this on the GFS-fv3? Absolutely nuts to see that level of cold on a weather model before Halloween. Hopefully we don't see too much cold, because it'll drain the lakes of their warmth so early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1st threat of flakes even here at lower elevations..Albeit a small one at that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 I'm starting to think we might be seeing the beginning of some pattern recognition...while it would be foolish to think we will just stay western Ridge eastern trough for the next 5 month's, there are quite a few signals pointing to this being the mean pattern for winter. Eastern QBO, modoki El Nino, SAI advance in N. America and solar mins...at the very least im liking what im seeing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 Whiteface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 So it appears that next weekend, mainly Sunday to Monday looks quite possibly to see accumulating snowfall from lake effect downwind from Erie and Ontario. The last 4 runs of the GFS including 6z this morning show -6 to -10 850mb air which would correlate to temps in the 30's at lower elevations during the daylight hours and temps flirting with freezing or below in the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 So it appears that next weekend, mainly Sunday to Monday looks quite possibly to see accumulating snowfall from lake effect downwind from Erie and Ontario. The last 4 runs of the GFS including 6z this morning show -6 to -10 850mb air which would correlate to temps in the 30's at lower elevations during the daylight hours and temps flirting with freezing or below in the highest elevations. Yeah we all know what the GFS shows 8 days out, but somehow between now and about day 4, it'll flip flop, especially considering the volatility that already exists within the models due to the natural change of seasons so I wouldnt buy into and one run or 3 for that matter, unless the GFS has been performing above average which is usually never the case, unfortunately. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 The Tug Hill region is getting hit pretty hard with +RN with embedded Thunder at times.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 New Euro seasonal is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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