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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Sign me up for the nam lol It would be a little more feasible in the heart of winter..

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh30-39.gif

That would be a nice front end thump. BUF did change the snow forecast maps to just include tomorrow. Several inches area wide. What model or program do they use to produce those maps?

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

That would be a nice front end thump. BUF did change the snow forecast maps to just include tomorrow. Several inches area wide. What model or program do they use to produce those maps?

Tropical Tidbits Forecast GIF on the bottom right of the page. 

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12z NAM both 12k and 4K get the band up to the heart of the Southtowns for a while. With the early season bias of bands coming further north than forecasted I could see this just about making it to downtown. If I had to make a call I’d go with 1” downtown. 2-4” in the immediate Southtowns and 4-8” in the further Southtowns like Hamburg and OP then 8-12” over the Boston Hills. 

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

12z NAM both 12k and 4K get the band up to the heart of the Southtowns for a while. With the early season bias of bands coming further north than forecasted I could see this just about making it to downtown. If I had to make a call I’d go with 1” downtown. 2-4” in the immediate Southtowns and 4-8” in the further Southtowns like Hamburg and OP then 8-12” over the Boston Hills. 

Even the low res GFS is showing it setup across central Erie.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7.png

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I'm shooting further...the lake event last December went 10 to 15 miles further north due to the warm lake waters and this is early November...im seeing a wide area of 2-4" from amherst to south buffalo where gradually we'll see 3 to 6 and then 4 to 8 as we get to hamburg o.o area.

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Wow, are the Globals trying to come to some track consensus 5 days out?  That would definitely up the ante for something at least minimally significant as far as accumulations go, then the backlash of LES begins in earnest, on a WNW flow with temps nearing -15 to-18C at times, for a couple days would no doubt yield some decent totals for pretty much thew whole South Shore of the Lake. Tug always gets hit no matter the wind flow so no need to mention, lol.  Waiting patiently for the Euro to arrive with a similar track and temp profile.

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I do gotta say though that I do not believe we're getting anywhere near 3-4" tomorrow into Saturday mostly due to the BL profile and the surface temps reaching the mid-upper 30's so I don't see where the NWS is getting 3-4" from.

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30 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I do gotta say though that I do not believe we're getting anywhere near 3-4" tomorrow into Saturday mostly due to the BL profile and the surface temps reaching the mid-upper 30's so I don't see where the NWS is getting 3-4" from.

KBUF clown maps almost always overstated near us for Tug LES setups.  Cut totals in half. Maybe a slushy 1 or 2".  Next Tuesday looks like mainly rain/mmix here in low elevations and Mohawk Valley. Probably a slopfest that amounts to not much here.  Still very early in season.

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IDK, maybe their on to something for tomorrow because soundings look good for a super quick, thumping of snow for a 6-8hr period tomorrow afternoon into the night time hours.

Hr 45

gfs_2018110800_045_43.25--76.25.png

hr 48

gfs_2018110800_048_43.25--76.25.png

That second frame is not a snow sounding for lower elevations but the Tug at that time will be taking a pounding, then the LE kicks in tomorrow evening through the night for the Tug.  Nice little early event to track but next weeks is the one to watch for our area, the immediate CNY area that is.

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

NWS has jumped on the LES train for the metro!!!  They do say only 1 to 2 inches north of buffalo but the key is that the meso models are also agreeing on thus shift...starting to get excited

Yep new AFD says band from northtowns into Southtowns with 1-2” in northtowns and 3-6” across Southtowns. Should be nice just to see real flakes flying again. Anything to cover the grass and I’m a happy camper. 

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Winter arrives in early/mid November

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 2pm. High near 42. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Friday Night
Rain showers before 1am, then rain and snow showers between 1am and 3am, then snow showers after 3am. Low around 31. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 24 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 36. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Veterans Day
A chance of snow showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A chance of snow showers, mixing with rain after 10am, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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