dta1984 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sorry we don’t like Ohio folks stealing the juice from our lake. Still not sure how we’re on different sides of the same lake and you’re not in our sub-forum. Cleveland and the belts should be with us and the southern potion of Ohio should be with the Tennessee/Kentucky crew or even Pittsburgh. Haha!! You Buffalo area guys definitely get that fetch though! Ya I do agree about the sub forum split, we are kind of on our own island over there. Thanks , appreciate it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Latest from kbuf A strong upper level jet and mid-level forcing will amount to widespread rain and snow across the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Cold air advection will spread across the region Friday night and any rain will be transition to snow with some light accumulations possible. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday night. 850 mb temperatures will fall steadily into the weekend, with anomalously cold air being sent down into the Great Lakes region behind Fridays low pressure wave. Widespread lake effect snow in the typical west-northwest flow belts is highly likely. Details of how much and exactly where that falls is uncertain at this stage. Blowing snow could also be an issue, especially close to the lakeshores. Winter weather headlines will likely be needed as we get closer to the event, therefore will maintain mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Lake snows will diminish Sunday into Sunday night as a surface ridge moves in from the Ohio Valley. Chances for precipitation look to ramp up again Monday into Tuesday as another deep trough is set to take hold in the central CONUS early next week. Any details related to synoptic snow are uncertain given the nature of the shortwave energy that would be driving it. Beyond this period, there is growing confidence that a much colder air mass will settle across the lower Great Lakes during the mid to end part of next week, resulting in the potential for significant lake snows as models supporting 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -15C to -18C range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 CPC analogs. CPC analog has been screaming November 76 the past few days... Also hitting on mid Nov 2000 which was a solid lake effect period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to think Tuesday night Wednesday will give the entire CWA the first accumulating snowfall of the young season. Looks to be a hybrid of Lake enhanced and synoptic transitioning to lake effect Wednesday night in the traditional snowbelts downwind of the lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 37 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Starting to think Tuesday night Wednesday will give the entire CWA the first accumulating snowfall of the young season. Looks to be a hybrid of Lake enhanced and synoptic transitioning to lake effect Wednesday night in the traditional snowbelts downwind of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Stop it or I won't be able to sleep...for the next 3 nights!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Stop it or I won't be able to sleep...for the next 3 nights!!! It doesn't last long, winds quickly go NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It doesn't last long, winds quickly go NW. No matter!!! This is all gravy anyways!!! To be 3 weeks from met winter and 6 weeks from the winter solstice I'll take it!!! No one expects it to last but just the thrill being back is cool enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Definitely all gravy. This is my first winter away from the Lakes. I used to live right on the lakeshore just outside Toronto. Now I live up on the Niagara Escarpment about 220M or 720 feet higher. I've asked a few local meteorologists what to expect and they mentioned a lot more snow compared to those right along the lake (Hamilton DT, Grimsby, St.Catherines) Though not by much, i am also closer to you guys when tracking snowstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This isn't normal cold. This is a piece of the PV hitting our area in normal November. We will be running 20 degrees below normal. The coldest anomalies across the entire planet will literally be right here next week. What an awesome cross-polar flow regime setting up for at least a week and perhaps beyond. I also agree that, thats extremely significant cold shot for this time of year, even for around here. Rarely do we see such cold air brought in by WNW-NW flow as its usually brought in by W-WSW winds which adds to the reason of such anomalously extreme LES storms, that happen during the month of November, in and around KBUF. Sure it can happen as it is now, but its quite anomalous, but I'll take it. The 00Z GFS has just shot after shot of synoptic love and with all this cold around, with the mean trough situated where it is, means a constant W-NWnwerly flow for days but I'd bet money the winds veer enough during this shot of cold that both Watertown and Buffalo get in on the fun. If not that way, then definitely synoptically! What a pattern though. Just imagine if it was a week before Christmas, now that would be nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Any 00Z Euro Weatherbell love Wolfie or whoever else has a sub. mine don't kick in till Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 In range of the good ol BTV now! Sets up a real nice looking band over BUF... Goes all snow by 4am and still on the south side of the metro at 7am. Might only be a couple hours but let the hype commence!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 6NAM output 6”+ at BUF.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 6NAM output 6”+ at BUF... . 06z NAM looks very similar edit: did not realize the first image you posted was 06z nam, my apologies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I know it's pretty hard to see and pretty coarse but the BTV WRF has a bullseye over the southtowns of over 1.5" liquid equivalent and that's not even the whole thing as the band is still over the southtowns at the end of the run. This is likely way overdone but the potential for an accumulating (possibly significant) snow event for the southtowns is looking like more of a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I know it's pretty hard to see and pretty coarse but the BTV WRF has a bullseye over the southtowns of over 1.5" liquid equivalent and that's not even the whole thing as the band is still over the southtowns at the end of the run. This is likely way overdone but the potential for an accumulating (possibly significant) snow event for the southtowns is looking like more of a possibility. I think what is important here is both models are getting into their sweet spot of forecasting...this shows up tomorrow and the snowblower will need to be run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think what is important here is both models are getting into their sweet spot of forecasting...this shows up tomorrow and the snowblower will need to be run. Latest 06z BTV wrf has well over 2” of QPF just south of Buffalo through Saturday afternoon... this is definitley way overdone but I would not be surprised to see some heavy wet snow with lots of graupel and thunder/lightning Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Latest 06z BTV wrf has well over 2” of QPF just south of Buffalo through Saturday afternoon... this is definitley way overdone but I would not be surprised to see some heavy wet snow with lots of graupel and thunder/lightning Saturday morning. That’s a transition zone special! Should be waking up to a winter wonderland Saturday morning! Hype level is a solid 9 out of 10 right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s a transition zone special! Should be waking up to a winter wonderland Saturday morning! Hype level is a solid 9 out of 10 right now! The heart of that band is Amherst to south buffalo with the Lackawanna south buffalo are with the bullseye...if this is realized 6 to 12 is likely with local amounts if up to 2 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The heart of that band is Amherst to south buffalo with the Lackawanna south buffalo are with the bullseye...if this is realized 6 to 12 is likely with local amounts if up to 2 feet Some of that is rain, and that is also the Burlington WRF model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 On Saturday...the bands of lake effect snow should briefly intensify as the cold air will deepen to -10 to -12c (H85 temps). Point soundings suggest that the cap will rise to nearly 15k ft over Lake Ontario and a respectable 12k ft or so over Lake Erie. The only debatable parameter will be the amount of synoptic moisture that the lake will have to enhance. Guidance has not been impressed with the amount of environmental moisture...but there should still be enough in the vcnty of Lake Ontario to support a `healthy` lake snow band. Given the hgt of the cap and -10c isotherm...stronger convection in the Ontario band could support lightning. Will not add heavy snow or lightning to the forecast just yet...as confidence is not quite there yet...mainly due to the possible lack of synoptic moisture. Otherwise...it will be brisk and chilly across the region with winds of 20 to 30 mph being the norm. Given that temps will be in the mid 30s for the bulk of the day...this would translate into wind chills in the teens and 20s. Stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Euro showed a pretty big hit for WNY and the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 12NAM still a lock! Solid 6-12” warning level event for the metro on the table! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 The BUF lake effect feels like it’s just about on time. Don’t you guys always get one or two in November? ROC will have to wait for the synoptic help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Valid till sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Valid to sat morning Those totals seem way different than the other 2 models...well guess it's an early battle for model supremacy!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Lock it in? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Nice snowstorm for tue on the canadian.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Come on NAM and CMC. A back to back 6-12” lake effect and 6-12” synoptic storm this early would be epic! One can dream, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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