BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I think we have the best sub-forum on this site so that's awesome as were not watched like dogs, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Except in summer when I talk to myself for 3-4 months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I said 1-3" for Buffalo and that was being generous, not sure who expected more. I didn’t, I guessed 2.8” for KBUF yesterday and said I think a mix will be a problem. I was just shocked to see plain rain honestly. Looking at radar from the Northeast it’s pretty crazy to see it’s snowing to the north, south, east, and west of us and we’re in our own little bubble of slightly above freezing temperatures aloft causing our misfortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 BW be honest that 1 to 3 was QPF driven in your accumulation forecast because no one had this much warn air getting this entrenched into the system...wer3 going to see between .5 and .7 QPF on the Niagara frontier and half of that is being washed down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Probably see only an inch or two up until 11/12 and then 1”+ an hr for the majority of the overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I said 3" for KBUF as well but was hoping for more, oh well. Every system has a surprise up its sleeve, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I think we see at least a couple hrs of rates approaching 2"/hr but those types rates in synoptic systems are hard to come by, but they happen, even more so downstate, during intense Nor'easters. Those are exciting to say the least.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Gonna be heading out soon for a few just to get gas. It's really just an excuse, cause the wife hates when I drive in heavy snow, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW be honest that 1 to 3 was QPF driven in your accumulation forecast because no one had this much warn air getting this entrenched into the system...wer3 going to see between .5 and .7 QPF on the Niagara frontier and half of that is being washed down the drain. I said thermals would be an issue and they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW be honest that 1 to 3 was QPF driven in your accumulation forecast because no one had this much warn air getting this entrenched into the system...wer3 going to see between .5 and .7 QPF on the Niagara frontier and half of that is being washed down the drain. No forecast called for PLAIN rain especially not for this long.It’s 7:15 and still just plain rain outside with no sign of a changeover in correlation coefficient... I didn’t think we’d see as much QPF as we are but figured we mix a little bit but not this much. I could be wrong but I don’t see how we changeover before 10pm at this point if not later and by then we’ll have wasted a majority of our QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 6:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect rain for Buffalo after they get little to nothing from this storm due to thermal profile issues. I'm going 1-3" for the Buffalo and surrounding suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Lmao fair enough Kreskin...but Aayuud is right in saying that rain really wasn't in the cast...FWIW it is changing back to sleet am and snow in Williamsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 What’s it doing around BUF for everyone? Just left work on the east side Broadway Bailey area and it was moderate freezing rain I actually had to scrape quite a bit of ice off my truck windows... Got home to South Buffalo and it was sleet pellets no sign of freezing rain... Talk about being board line temps for p type. Guess my overachiever call is gonna FLOP!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: What’s it doing around BUF for everyone? Just left work on the east side Broadway Bailey area and it was moderate freezing rain I actually had to scrape quite a bit of ice off my truck windows... Got home to South Buffalo and it was sleet pellets no sign of freezing rain... Talk about being board line temps for p type. Guess my overachiever call is gonna FLOP! . Plain rain and temperature is UP to 33.2 degrees in WS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Beautiful fluffy snow here in central Otsego County, falling at a moderate rate. Eyeballing about 1.5 inches so far on the patio. I like our chances for jackpotting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Trying so hard to snow here. Big flakes battling with viscous little pingers for supremacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 It'll be over to snow by 9PM, thats my call fir KBUF and you'll still see 1-3" so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Still sleet mix in Roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Driving now, conditions aren't too bad and it looks like it just started to get a bit more heavier than what it's been doing the last hour or so but it's definitely accumulating on all surfaces and fast. All roads are completely covered pretty much everywhere and from the looks of the radar it looks like it's just going to get heavier and steadier as the night progresses. I think the amounts. The National Weather Service and most of us predicted for the Syracuse area and surrounding suburbs 6 to 10 in and I think that may pen out pretty good so all in all we'll see what happensSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 But the one thing that it is, is downright cold with a temp of 26 would do points still in the low twenties so we'll probably wet bulb right down to like I said 23 24 degrees I would say.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 wheres all my cny friends? what you guys thinking for storm totals? im up here in oswego, ny and its all snow up here...snowing at a pretty good clip..a good dusting on the ground as we speak..maybe a 1/2 currently..how about you guys?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 cny-lesfreak!! where do you see the heavier bands within the 6-10inch map setting up shop?? im looking for the localized 10+ and i didnt know if the models were showing a consistency with a certain band showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I didn’t even have time to get my snowboards out in the yard yet as I’ve still been wrangling leaves. Guess I’ll just have to wing it when it’s comes to measurements. Speaking of leaves, the plows are going to be plowing huge piles of leaves all over tonight. It’s going to be a giant mess come tomorrow. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Hour later, still pouring rain. Temp has risen to 33.3. C.C. shows no sign of the mix line moving anywhere near us and whatever little snow/sleet we did have (less than 1”) is being washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 KBGM ups the ante, while WNY soaks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4-5" here so far. Snow has let up a bit, but was coming down pretty good with large flakes in past hour. 28.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Alright... weekend lake effect potential for KBUF... over/under 1”? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Steady snow here...probably 1/2-3/4” per hr rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Looks like snow is over for NYC metro and LI, rain pressing north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Alright... weekend lake effect potential for KBUF... over/under 1”? . This pattern came too soon. The lake will be well below average and Buffalo will have a 2-3 week window to cash in on a big LES event in December before the lake freezes. The El Niño is also strengthening rapidly which will likely lead to an early spring. I might be wrong on my snowfall call for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Looks like snow is over for NYC metro and LI, rain pressing north now. My wife’s other office is on Long Island. Her co worker left the office at 4:30 and got home at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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