WxNoob Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lock it in! (I wish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Ha! I was just about to post that, Tim! As to your question earlier, no, I don’t come around here unless there’s snow in the forecast. My obsession is strictly with the white stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Most likely overdone. But like the idea of 5 to 8 area wide. Border line wsw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 You notice about 5 10 years ago they used to issue Wwa for 2 to 4 inches and wsw for 6 or more. Funny how they changes that. As winters are on average are getting snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 parallel GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 High bust potential on NW edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Sref plumes. Yup that time of year already. Buf avg of 5 Roc avg of 8 Syr avg of 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GGEM still a good hit.. I agree dave someone going to get screwed lol I'll prob get shafted just NW of a mega band .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Anyone looked at DGZ vs UVV? This looks ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 KBGM ****e snow growth at 30 h. Still snow but low ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 KROC...not the best snow growth profile but not horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I knew you’d come through. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Honestly, that was a great 0z suite of runs. Most of us got a boost in QPF. Ensembles look good too. This storm is looking quite a bit more impressive. I’m wondering if BUF will upgrade to warnings, especially Gennessee valley and East. Wayne county looks real nice Tim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Honestly, that was a great 0z suite of runs. Most of us got a boost in QPF. Ensembles look good too. This storm is looking quite a bit more impressive. I’m wondering if BUF will upgrade to warnings, especially Gennessee valley and East. Wayne county looks real nice Tim! They sure did. Woke up way too early because my internal clock said it was time to check the new nws discussion...and model runs...and the forum... Oh, the excitement of the first region-wide snow storm. We now enter the season of sleepless nights...especially where I live! Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Warnings should be from Genesee county on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Not that it matters but Mike Cejka from channel 4 here in Buffalo has 3-5" for Niagara County, then 2-4" for Buffalo (Northern Erie) and for Genesee County which makes no sense what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 This has become a very exciting start to the winter (were still 36 days away from the solstice) and all the indications are pointing to a blockbuster winter that could be talked about with some of the top analogs like 77 or 03...looks good for a white Thanksgiving for most and that hasn't been the case for years. Game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Not that it matters but Mike Cejka from channel 4 here in Buffalo has 3-5" for Niagara County, then 2-4" for Buffalo (Northern Erie) and for Genesee County which makes no sense what so ever. I've noticed a precipitous drop in the forecasting on WIVB in the past few years, to the point where I question more than I believe. The model showed a clear 4.1 at KBUF and yet he goes lower even though he mentions it will remain all snow and there's been a bump in QPF... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I've noticed a precipitous drop in the forecasting on WIVB in the past few years, to the point where I question more than I believe. The model showed a clear 4.1 at KBUF and yet he goes lower even though he mentions it will remain all snow and there's been a bump in QPF... Likely because Don Paul left. Still like Mike Cejka he has a very great on air personality but I agree some of the forecasting on WIVB is head scratching. Channel 7 actually has the best team of mets I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: This has become a very exciting start to the winter (were still 36 days away from the solstice) and all the indications are pointing to a blockbuster winter that could be talked about with some of the top analogs like 77 or 03...looks good for a white Thanksgiving for most and that hasn't been the case for years. Game on. We had 20" of snow on 11/21-22/2016 and 14" on ground Thanksgiving that year, which was the 24th IMBY. I think all of us in CNY had similar numbers. That was by far the snowiest Thanksgiving since I've been here, 15 years. This may come in 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 This could be good news for Matt, going to be a close call here with bl temps 34/35.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6z models definitely took a beat SE with totals. NW zone was always gonna be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wow that expanded considerably from yesterday's probabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Dave I live up here in oswego..you think I should be worried about the lack of moisture being where weare located is in the nw edge of this storm..I'm worried about the precipitation cutoff..your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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