WxNoob Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Syr: 6 Bgm: 9 Ith: 7.5 Elm: 8.5 Jackpot somewhere between Scranton and Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Kbuf 4.5" Roc 5.7" Syr. 8.2 Bgm 11.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 BUF 3.5" ROC 4" FUL 5" SYR 6" BGM 9" SCR 10" WTR 2" ITH 12" YYZ 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 219 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch expected. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media. && This means we're gonna get pegged, no doubt an overachiever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Looks like KSYR will be way above the norm, if tomorrow's system comes to pass, and we get 8-10" or whatever. Avg for Nov is 9.6" so we'll pass that with ease, so this may be a first below norm month for both temps/snow in a while I believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 KBGM discussion: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 325 PM Update...A complex, early winter storm is still on track to affect our forecast area by late tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning. Thermal profiles, and temporal changes of the airmasses passing through parts of our forecast area are the main challenges to this forecast leading to considerable uncertainty in precipitation type and snow/sleet and ice accumulations. The most confident areas for changeover to sleet and freezing rain remain over our southern zones as the warm conveyor wraps into the deepening cyclone. After an initial burst of warm advection snow, the changing precip types will tend to limit accumulations from the Wyoming Valley to the Poconos and Catskills. Further north and west...model blends do suggest some warm air intruding aloft, but also suggest that dynamic cooling will overcome the advective properties of this system as it pulls away on Friday morning. We expect that much of CNY, particularly the Finger Lakes Region to southern Tug Hill, will remain mainly snow with varying intensity. The heaviest snowfall could come later Thursday night into early Friday morning. Snow amount solutions are all over the place depending on the warm layer and resulting snow-liquid ratios that fluctuate throughout the entire event. The Canadian GEM and ECMWF models would blitz our area under warning criteria snow, and then some. The warm intrusion on the NAM is stronger and further north, while the GFS is holding the precip shield closest to the coastal low. Given this uncertainty, we have continued the Watch as previously issued, and expanded it throughout the rest of CNY and the northern Tier PA. Ensemble precip-type probabilities are also of little help to pinpoint the scenario at this time. Continuing to highlight the potential, but not certainty, of excessive snow accumulations is prudent at this time. What is reasonably confident to say is that we will see a wintry storm system affecting our area Thursday into Friday with areas of slippery and hazardous travel almost a guarantee. Later forecasts will be adjusted to pin down the snow accumulations. Temperatures colder than normal, but rising toward 40 again on Friday. Any lingering precipitation through Friday night will be scattered in nature and mainly focused on the downwind lake effect tracks from Lake Ontario. Right now, the lake generated instability does not seem to be enough for significant snows into Friday evening. This may settle out for the weekend as the air chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 BUF 5” ROC 6” SYR 7” Ithaca 8” Scranton 2” Fulton 8” Penn Yan 10” the zone of heaviest snow can still move NW affecting the thruway corridor? Or sleet could kill us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 48 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: BUF 3.5" ROC 4" FUL 5" SYR 6" BGM 9" SCR 10" WTR 2" ITH 12" YYZ- 2.8" YHM-3.8" BUF-4.8" ROC- 5.3" SYR-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: YYZ- 2.8" YHM-3.8" BUF-4.8" ROC- 5.3" SYR-9" YYZ 3", I forgot to include Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 We have a nice little contest going for this event, nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: YYZ 3", I forgot to include Toronto Toronto/GTA is in a weird geographical spot for the boards. Not enough Canadian members to create our own subforum, so kind of split between this one and great lakes. Though climate wise and weather impact wise, have a lot more in common with Upstate/Eastern NY since GTA is only 60 miles from WNY and hundreds of miles from Detroit, Chicago, Minneapolis, Missouri ect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Forgot YYZ too, I apologize! YYZ : 1.2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I can't believe they didnt include Niagara for continuity sake. Thats just being petty now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Watch Niagara Cty jacks cause of some weird lake convergence band on a North Wind, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 They should get 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Rgem is moist.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem is moist.. To say the least, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 It stinks to know we will have a favorable wind direction after this storm only for it to rain lol Could be a decent amount of it as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It stinks to know we will have a favorable wind direction after this storm only for it to rain lol Could be a decent amount of it as well.. Lake effect rain for Buffalo after they get little to nothing from this storm due to thermal profile issues. I'm going 1-3" for the Buffalo and surrounding suburbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect rain for Buffalo after they get little to nothing from this storm due to thermal profile issues. I'm going 1-3" for the Buffalo and surrounding suburbs. Why so low? And if im not mistaken doesntvthat above map show heavy LES over buffalo??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Lake effect rain for Buffalo after they get little to nothing from this storm due to thermal profile issues. I'm going 1-3" for the Buffalo and surrounding suburbs. Could be interesting... all the meso have surface temps 32-35... if we end up getting a snowpack from this storm maybe it can nudge temps just low enough for snow vs rain. Either way looks to be a short lived swing through and push on shore setup... Still the active pattern continues!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Feel this one will end up being an overachiever...BUF 7.2”ROC 8.9”SYR 10.5”Love the added juice idea from the NE flow.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Congrats to all who picked up some snow so far this week. This is the time of year I knew I would be second guessing our recent move. We moved from the Cheek/Amherst border, west of the airport, to a couple miles north to Snyder. Probably lost about 10" of seasonal accumulation in just that amount of move! It was definitely a consideration to move south to get into the snow belt, but at the end of the day I couldn't justify the extra commute time for both me and my wife. It's also a much easier decision in the summer when my thoughts are squarely on sun, paddle boarding, and golf...not lake effect snow. All good though - love the house and the neighborhood. I'll just have to keep honing my chasing skills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The reason the canadian models are so snowy is they track the LP farther west, going to be interesting to see which way models go at 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The reason the canadian models are so snowy is they track the LP farther west, going to be interesting to see which way models go at 0z.. Further west is because of a stronger LP and thus it creating its own cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 20 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Congrats to all who picked up some snow so far this week. This is the time of year I knew I would be second guessing our recent move. We moved from the Cheek/Amherst border, west of the airport, to a couple miles north to Snyder. Probably lost about 10" of seasonal accumulation in just that amount of move! It was definitely a consideration to move south to get into the snow belt, but at the end of the day I couldn't justify the extra commute time for both me and my wife. It's also a much easier decision in the summer when my thoughts are squarely on sun, paddle boarding, and golf...not lake effect snow. All good though - love the house and the neighborhood. I'll just have to keep honing my chasing skills! I graduated from Cleveland Hill and lived right next to Snyder. Where do you work? I can get anywhere from the city to Cheektowaga from here in 15-20 mins. I'll have a place soon big enough for the chasers to setup shop! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Whenever there is a east coast system I usually always bump it 50 to 75 miles west of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 This isn’t a true Miller type storm. It’s more a baroclinic zone with a wave and over riding. I wouldn’t expect a big NW deformation zone. I don’t see any big sign of any enhancement off a NE wind. But time will tell, I’d love to see the Canadian models come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 HRRR is pretty far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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