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Upstate/Eastern New York


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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Should be a decent storm for everyone. Perhaps with the exception of our far western friends. I liked the NWS for an area wide watch. Seems they aren’t as keen on this storm. 

Im getting a bit excited to be tracking this now. Any event over 2 inches brings Toronto and the wider GTA to a standstill, and as of right now this event is showing 2-4 inches for most of the GTA. In the minds of most of the population this will go down as a winter storm if it can deliver what the models are showing 

 

To give you an example. My commute from Hamilton to Mississauga is about 40 minutes, if the snow starts earlier tomorrow (before PM rush hour) my commute could easily turn into a 2-3 hour mess on the local highways. Happens every single time 

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GTA is in a tough spot for big accumulations. Very little lake effect and for whatever reason, the synoptic storms hit Ontario and shunt east. 

It would drive me absolutely nutz. 

But you guys have an economy we are all jealous of. My house, in Rochester, is worth about 90k; in Toronto, it’d be worth 250 or so. 

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GTA is in a tough spot for big accumulations. Very little lake effect and for whatever reason, the synoptic storms hit Ontario and shunt east. 

It would drive me absolutely nutz. 

But you guys have an economy we are all jealous of. My house, in Rochester, is worth about 90k; in Toronto, it’d be worth 250 or so. 

A friend of mine in San Diego said the house I'm getting here would be worth a million there. Pretty crazy. 

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35 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im getting a bit excited to be tracking this now. Any event over 2 inches brings Toronto and the wider GTA to a standstill, and as of right now this event is showing 2-4 inches for most of the GTA. In the minds of most of the population this will go down as a winter storm if it can deliver what the models are showing 

 

To give you an example. My commute from Hamilton to Mississauga is about 40 minutes, if the snow starts earlier tomorrow (before PM rush hour) my commute could easily turn into a 2-3 hour mess on the local highways. Happens every single time 

Brutal, if it hits Toronto that would be about double the commute? 

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27 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

All of the model outputs that are being posted need to be cut in half or even 1/3 if past experience is any indication of the future.  2-4 seems reasonable area wide.  

 

I'm trying to figure out what will be the screwjob cause this time.  Sun angle?  BL temps? Omega mismatched with SGZ, weak/late slp development, NWP mis-model?  So many choices.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Brutal, if it hits Toronto that would be about double the commute? 

Ya, we already have one of the worst commute times in North America so adding any snow makes it a disaster out there. Not to go off topic that much but theres been discussion that the province makes snow tires mandatory. Quebec does this, I havent dived deeper into the data to see if it reduces accidents but I would imagine it does. A lot of the GTA drivers never leave the immediate city so they drive with all seasons. Last night with only a dusting of snow from Georgian Bay there were dozens of accidents on the local highways. 

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1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, we already have one of the worst commute times in North America so adding any snow makes it a disaster out there. Not to go off topic that much but theres been discussion that the province makes snow tires mandatory. Quebec does this, I havent dived deeper into the data to see if it reduces accidents but I would imagine it does. A lot of the GTA drivers never leave the immediate city so they drive with all seasons. Last night with only a dusting of snow from Georgian Bay there were dozens of accidents on the local highways. 

Passing a law/regulation to require snow tires seems unnecessary (and expensive).  A good set of all season radials (that aren't near end of life) is usually good enough to drive in most winter weather, in most vehicles, particularly since the advent of front wheel drive and All/4 WD.  Back in the days of rear wheel drive, things were definitely more "entertaining" driving in snow (or watching others attempt to).  Excessive speed and inattention are what cause most accidents whether in snow or really any conditions - there's just less margin for error on snowy/wet surfaces.  And yeah, having traveled by car to Toronto for conferences a few times, I can vouch for GTA's impressive gridlock!

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22 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, we already have one of the worst commute times in North America so adding any snow makes it a disaster out there. Not to go off topic that much but theres been discussion that the province makes snow tires mandatory. Quebec does this, I havent dived deeper into the data to see if it reduces accidents but I would imagine it does. A lot of the GTA drivers never leave the immediate city so they drive with all seasons. Last night with only a dusting of snow from Georgian Bay there were dozens of accidents on the local highways. 

My wife and I went to a Yankee/Blue Jay game in Toronto last July. We ended up being an inning late to the game (missed an Aaron Judge homer)because the last 5 miles took us an hour. What kind of job do the road crews do keeping the roads cleared of snow?  Maybe we’re spoiled because the crews here generally do a good job considering how much snow we get. 

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My last few trips to Toronto I decided I couldn't take the traffic any more.

The solution I found is take the QEW to just outside Hamilton, park at the Aldershot GO station and take the train to Union Station.

Blissful compared to the drive.  Sit on the train and read in relative peace.

 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
101 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

NYZ017-018-151815-
/O.CAN.KBGM.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.A.0006.181115T1500Z-181116T1800Z/
Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-
Including the cities of Auburn and Syracuse
101 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations from
  Thursday morning through early Friday afternoon of as much as 7
  or 8 inches possible. Any additional lake effect snow showers
  will only amount to an inch or two at most this afternoon.

* WHERE...Onondaga and Southern Cayuga Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute
  Thursday and Friday.
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I really love the look of this Satellite View and it looks like to me that guidance is a bit ahead of the system, meaning the system looks a bit further West than first anticipated.  If that's in fact the case, then we should expect a bit of a westward jog at 00Z or even 18Z, if all the data has been ingested.

image.thumb.png.3d483e1cec1d004cb1e3d236053e8764.png

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16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I really love the look of this Satellite View and it looks like to me that guidance is a bit ahead of the system, meaning the system looks a bit further West than first anticipated.  If that's in fact the case, then we should expect a bit of a westward jog at 00Z or even 18Z, if all the data has been ingested.

image.thumb.png.3d483e1cec1d004cb1e3d236053e8764.png

Isn’t that a baroclinic leaf?

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Yes sir, thats whats expected to pass through so that's the area to watch to see its behavior, movement, banding potential and intensity of precip within the leaf.  There may be a brief period of sleet the further north one is but from about KSYR on North this is primarilly a completely frozen event but places like KITH, KBGM and Cortland have the potential of at least 6" of snow and 1" of ice, OUCH!!

BAROCLINIC LEAF. A baroclinic leaf is the name given to a synoptic cloud formation that resembles the shape of a leaf. It is the lifting exerted from the low pressure system and the warm and cold fronts that produces this cloud pattern. When air is lifted to the point of saturation, then clouds will develop.

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