rochesterdave Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This next system could be a repeat of this one. I really hope we don’t have another winter were every model has a blockbuster 5 days out only to lose it at the 48 hr. GTA, I feel your pain. The analogues look decent still. IDK. Quickly losing hope on the Friday thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Long range NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Next one will be colder my friend.. Strong high pressure sitting right over the NE slowly retreating.. I worry most about precip making it here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Wolf once that pond freezes I'm bringing over my hockey team to play. We will set up some lights, some boards made with snowbanks, crack a few beers. Live the dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Though nowhere close to the main part of the storm I would take that snow map in a heart beat. 3-5 inches of snow in the GTA is borderline winter storm worthy. Current forecast is for a dusting here so not getting my hopes up yet. Also unlike CNY, far WNY and Southern Ontario will be about 32F for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Little bump north on kbuf snow map, slight increase as well..I was expecting nada, now maybe score a couple inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Northern Monroe now gets into the action. I’ll believe it when I see it; that area is the most difficult region to forecast in NY. Wouldnt be shocked to see flags extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 All these precip maps mean nothing, especially the LE ones. I'll believe the 8" forecasted when I see it OTG, otherwise its hoopla! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: All these precip maps mean nothing, especially the LE ones. I'll believe the 8" forecasted when I see it OTG, otherwise its hoopla! I don't take LES maps too seriously. At least around our area. Its more of a general idea on location and intensity/duration. Too fickle and too many things can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Northern Monroe now gets into the action. I’ll believe it when I see it; that area is the most difficult region to forecast in NY. Wouldnt be shocked to see flags extended. I wouldn't worry about NE Monroe getting in on this upcoming event, as I'm worrying about my area and I'm smack dead in the middle of the 8" area and I'm still skeptical, seriously! I don't believe anything when it comes to forecasting snow from any Lake for that matter. It does what it wants always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Could be a messy morning commute, although it last for only a few hours..Gotta say, this was on point this morning, wow, that's impressive to say the least.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 What the front of the crib looked like this morning but that's all gone now, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We know it's never correct but a man can dream right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 .WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 15 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Western Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Monroe county, mainly north of the Thruway. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Third time this changed just today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Third time this changed just today lol They also changed the WSW wording to Northern Wayne (vs. Eastern)...gives me some hope for Ontario! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Roc has a advisory north if thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We know it's never correct but a man can dream right? lol Which model is that cuz I sure as hell hope it's wrong! Smack dab in the middle of a minimum, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 All of a sudden it becomes a southern Tug Hill event, that would be some funny stuff!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 11:32 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I mean the potential is there. The cold air will 100% be there, synoptic support will be there, shear is an issue. But if this comes to fruition you guys will be happy. The 3 lake super connection is starting to show up next Tues/Weds. That band would produce 2-4"+ per hour. Models consistent with this band. Post from week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, vortmax said: They also changed the WSW wording to Northern Wayne (vs. Eastern)...gives me some hope for Ontario! I guess the more they put out, one of them has to come to fruition no, I mean how stupid , seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The power of lake effect: Upstate NY will be one of snowiest US spots this week Syracuse, N.Y. -- Snow is expected to fall from New Mexico to Maine over the next two days, but almost nowhere as heavily as in Upstate New York. Thanks to lake effect snow from the Great Lakes, Upstate New York and Michigan's Upper Peninsula could see close to a foot of snow in isolated areas through 7 p.m. Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service. Most areas over the 2,300-mile swath of snowfall will get an inch or two. That long stretch of snow is caused by cold polar air dipping as far south as Texas and bumping into a warmer air mass that's pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. "What you're looking at here is the boundary zone of warm air moving north from the Gulf and cold air moving south from Canada," said Mark Wysocki, New York state climatologist. "You can see how that boundary stretches from the southern plains to the Great Lakes." Another system, a coastal storm that is moving along the East Coast today, will interact with that boundary of cold and warm air. As that coastal storm moves off Cape Cod Tuesday night, it will pull cold air across the Great Lakes, generating lake effect snow in Michigan and New York. Where the heaviest snow ends up depends upon the wind direction, Wysocki said. The National Weather Service is predicting winds from the northwest, so the heaviest snow in Upstate New York would be in Central New York. But even slight changes in wind direction could push that snow to the north or south, Wysocki said. "It could be from Tully up to Fulton and Oswego," he said. "It's what we call a forecaster's nightmare." Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I guess the more they put out, one of them has to come to fruition no, I mean how stupid , seriously! So you would rather them continue to run a bad forecast rather than update it? I love the fact that they are continually updating these forecasts as new data is digested into the models. You guys have way too high of standards when it comes to the NWS. They are guys just like us with virtually the same data doing the best they can. I hope they update their forecasts every minute to keep things as fresh as possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Their trying to pinpoint where the heaviest snow is gonna fall within this band that's supposed to form right, so why not wait till it forms to update the forecast? how about if its in Central Oswego cty? So I guess they'll change it again if that does happen right? That was kind of my pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Their trying to pinpoint where the heaviest snow is gonna fall within this band that's supposed to form right, so why not wait till it forms to update the forecast? how about if its in Central Oswego cty? So I guess they'll change it again if that does happen right? That was kind of my pt. Because people have jobs, travel, hospitals, construction, etc... that depend on the forecasters expertise in predicting the weather. Forecasters allow us to plan for the weather. You cannot wait until the event is happening to put out a forecast. A guy at my dads work in West Seneca in Nov. 2014 left his employer to pick up his wife from her employer. He got on the thruway, went off the road and died due to his car behind buried and C02 poisoning. Weather is serious business, they try their best to get it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Their trying to pinpoint where the heaviest snow is gonna fall within this band that's supposed to form right, so why not wait till it forms to update the forecast? how about if its in Central Oswego cty? So I guess they'll change it again if that does happen right? That was kind of my pt. And thats exactly what they should do. Gone are the days when they put out a forecast twice a day and rode it regardless of what happens. Nowcast Nowcast Nowcast. The internet is a great medium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 your right, I guess the days of 2 updates daily are over! I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Sometimes they never updated and it drove me up a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The main event through Wednesday will be the development of a multi-lake connection snow band that affects areas SE of Lake Ontario. This band may have a tough time getting started this evening, but confidence is high enough for a strong single lake band or two separate bands moving across the region by late tonight into Wednesday morning. A single band would be focused squarely on an area from Northern or NE Wayne County east to Western Oswego. All high res models pinpoint this area with peak intensity between ~06-12Z Wednesday, which is often a period of intensification due to shoreline convergence and/or land breezes. There is some disagreement to how stationary the band will be though. If it wanders, then amounts may be more spread out and a little lower than forecast. But with peak lake effect season underway, plus a good triple lake connection signal, will place amounts on the higher side with 3-6 hours of up to 2" snow rates. Some models suggest two separate bands moving through the region overnight while others create a single band. With the former, parts of Monroe county could see some bursts of snow, so have placed the Rochester area into an Advisory. If a single band results, then areas east of Rochester will have higher amounts. HREF amounts are a little on the light side compared to the current forecast due to some differences between the HRW NMMB member and the NAM Nest being a little out of sync with the HRW NSSL and ARW. The duration of this event should be relatively short which should keep amounts from getting out of control. Still, expect a narrow swath of around a foot of snow with the usual variability and localized higher/lower amounts. Storm totals within the band may approach a narrow peak of 15" bulls-eyed somewhere from about Wolcott to Fulton and/or Phoenix, with far less 10-20 miles away from the peak. Areas on the north side of the band, from about Mexico to Parish should see only a few inches. Areas to the west toward Rochester should see upwards of about 5" with amounts decreasing to the south and/or southwest toward the Thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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