BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 All good signs. @ayuud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We have a wicked 45 day period coming up which takes us right through the Holiday Season so I have no clue where some of those way pre-mature warm posts we're coming from, but I don't see any AN weather anytime soon across the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 0z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Here is the goofus.. Chasing convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 What a horrific model to be suffering from such massive convective feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It takes it ots then reforms it off the Jersey coast then heads ots again, What the heck?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 We should all have just over a foot by the end of the weekend here to the SE of LO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We have a wicked 45 day period coming up which takes us right through the Holiday Season so I have no clue where some of those way pre-mature warm posts we're coming from, but I don't see any AN weather anytime soon across the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Temp continues to rise and we're sitting at 43F and rising, as precip starts to fall and starts to saturate the column and evap cooling begins. Wetbulbs are even above freezing so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't like this whole set-up and wish the next 18hrs move quickly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Could be a messy morning commute, although it last for only a few hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Some eye candy to get you to sleep.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The current pattern is exactly why I wanted to move out of the Lake Plain (of Lake Michigan) and to a higher elevation. Too stressful playing the "how are lake temps going to ruin it" game. Lol That band tomorrow night is looking pretty good for those of you to the south. Looks like some lighter upslope snows here after the system goes through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 XL Parachutes are falling with a temp of 34F. Also a new headline for Oswego , Wayne and No. Cayuga Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 345 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...eastern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and western Oswego counties. * WHEN...From this evening through Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Gotta think that if these temp trends continue we are going to have a very BN month temperature wise for November...in fact I'd be willing to bet that from about the 15th of October to now has been very below average and there are only good signs ahead as previously posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Gotta think that if these temp trends continue we are going to have a very BN month temperature wise for November...in fact I'd be willing to bet that from about the 15th of October to now has been very below average and there are only good signs ahead as previously posted above. But below normal temps don't equate to snow. As BuffaloWeather posted these well below normal temps now with no good setups for lake effect for the metro in the foreseeable future is just killing all the lakes warmth so when we finally get a chance late in Nov or in Dec it's likely not going to be as good as it could have been had it not been so well below normal now. The lake is already in the upper 40s and could be close to 40 by the end of the month. I know it's still early but I'm not liking the chances at all for above normal snowfall for the Niagara Frontier at all. I think storms will stay mainly to our east and lake effect events will be predominantly WNW to NW for the next several weeks. Ski country and SE and E of L.O. looks to be in a good spot but around Buffalo we'll be lucky to see scattered dustings here and there through at least Thanksgiving, but I suppose that's not out of the ordinary this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 First 1' of the season, just measured and more to come tonight and Thur-Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 40 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: But below normal temps don't equate to snow. As BuffaloWeather posted these well below normal temps now with no good setups for lake effect for the metro in the foreseeable future is just killing all the lakes warmth so when we finally get a chance late in Nov or in Dec it's likely not going to be as good as it could have been had it not been so well below normal now. The lake is already in the upper 40s and could be close to 40 by the end of the month. I know it's still early but I'm not liking the chances at all for above normal snowfall for the Niagara Frontier at all. I think storms will stay mainly to our east and lake effect events will be predominantly WNW to NW for the next several weeks. Ski country and SE and E of L.O. looks to be in a good spot but around Buffalo we'll be lucky to see scattered dustings here and there through at least Thanksgiving, but I suppose that's not out of the ordinary this early in the season. Yeah im not worried at all. Plus 41 or 42 degrees lake temperature isn't end all especially when I believe sufficient cold air will be around for some time...it will all work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 About 3/4 inch of wet springlike snow at 7 AM. Still snowing steadily but the back edge of the snow is rapidly approaching from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I see his gripe because with a normal seasonal change, as the Jet strengthens and starts to move South, usually systems come in through the Mid-west then head for the Lakes, as the Jet is still too far North, for any real Cold air intrusions. As this occurs, systems pass by to our West, usually, and hence the SSW-SWerly flow which usually develops and smashes KBUF and the usual hot spots with a SW flow off Erie! This year is the exact polar opposite and I don't see a change anytime soon unfortunately. The Jet is diving Southward as if Its Winter time already with Arctic Intrusions never mind a bit o cold air that usually invades during November besides the anomalous years like the current one. I see nothing but NW-WNW-Werly flow events for the foreseeable future unfortunately but that doesn't mean anything, cause this can all change on a dime....... But I don't see that dime just yet! It's just hard to imagine KBUF not seeing a few feet of LE during any given Winter so....Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 As soon as the snow stops the air warms so the 1' that fell will be gone by mid-morning, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Open wave, marginal temps, quick moving. Did anyone get 3-6” the NWS was forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: The current pattern is exactly why I wanted to move out of the Lake Plain (of Lake Michigan) and to a higher elevation. Too stressful playing the "how are lake temps going to ruin it" game. Lol That band tomorrow night is looking pretty good for those of you to the south. Looks like some lighter upslope snows here after the system goes through. My next move. Talk about zero stress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Open wave, marginal temps, quick moving. Did anyone get 3-6” the NWS was forecasting? The CoCoRaHS reports coming in show higher elevations south of Syracuse got 2.5 to 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 For Fridays system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I do enjoy me some wet snow lol Finished with a storm total of 1.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 For the GTA this has been a waste of a pattern. At the beginning of this pattern I was pumped but now its nothing but strike out after strike out and friday looks identical to the past systems. 34F wet snow that barely accumulates if at all and disappears. A milder pattern is on the horizon but with the continuation of downward temps, it will be tough to notice. Just more temps in the upper 30s-upper 40s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I see his gripe because with a normal seasonal change, as the Jet strengthens and starts to move South, usually systems come in through the Mid-west then head for the Lakes, as the Jet is still too far North, for any real Cold air intrusions. As this occurs, systems pass by to our West, usually, and hence the SSW-SWerly flow which usually develops and smashes KBUF and the usual hot spots with a SW flow off Erie! This year is the exact polar opposite and I don't see a change anytime soon unfortunately. The Jet is diving Southward as if Its Winter time already with Arctic Intrusions never mind a bit o cold air that usually invades during November besides the anomalous years like the current one. I see nothing but NW-WNW-Werly flow events for the foreseeable future unfortunately but that doesn't mean anything, cause this can all change on a dime....... But I don't see that dime just yet! It's just hard to imagine KBUF not seeing a few feet of LE during any given Winter so....Time will tell. So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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