wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I don't think WNY (West of ROC) sees more than 2" from this...NAM is wrong and everything will be east. You guys may actually be in a better spot (far enough east to get better moisture and just far enough west to be cold enough to keep it mostly snow). My call now is BUF 1", ROC 2", SYR 4". After next weekend pattern looks to flip and whole country looks to flood with pacific air. Could be till December after this before we see more legit chances at snow. With only 0.7" of snow (all of which falling on Friday) we could be ending November with next to nothing in the snow department. Pretty cruddy after what looked like it could be a promising start a couple days ago but I guess that's why our average high is still nearly 50 and BUFs average first 1" isn't until NOV 18th. Wake me up when November ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I don't think WNY (West of ROC) sees more than 2" from this...NAM is wrong and everything will be east. You guys may actually be in a better spot (far enough east to get better moisture and just far enough west to be cold enough to keep it mostly snow). My call now is BUF 1", ROC 2", SYR 4". After next weekend pattern looks to flip and whole country looks to flood with pacific air. Could be till December after this before we see more legit chances at snow. With only 0.7" of snow (all of which falling on Friday) we could be ending November with next to nothing in the snow department. Pretty cruddy after what looked like it could be a promising start a couple days ago but I guess that's why our average high is still nearly 50 and BUFs average first 1" isn't until NOV 18th. Wake me up when November ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 RGEM and HRDPS both much better looking. We’re still talking only 3-6”, but much better runs. NWS certainly not impressed with valley accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Week 3 will be warm as we head into a warm MJO phase and go zonal with Pacific air. However, I like the look for the turn of the month into December when it really matters. The 3rd twitter link I posted is IMO the most important to a good winter. Almost every winter outlook I've seen predicts above normal snowfall/below normal temps. I think the coldest month will be February. I'm still at where I was back in Sep/Oct. +5-10% snowfall and near to slightly below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: RGEM and HRDPS both much better looking. We’re still talking only 3-6”, but much better runs. NWS certainly not impressed with valley accumulations. I was thinking the same thing. They just muddled over any potential even up here on the Tug...and then downplayed Friday's event as well. BGM's discussion has a completely different tone, and more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I think a lot has to do with the lake plain, kbgm cwa sits farther “inland “ away from the lake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Not expecting much either way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Euro hasn't budged from its most Westerly Solution! Throw everything else out, except the Euro and Nam especially when their in lock step with one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Why is everyone dismissing the NAM so close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 1000-1005 MB, it never fully occludes. Its just a weak open wave riding along the frontal zone that never brings in any cold air. Rates will be low, ground is still warm, and it's going to be wet snow if any does fall as snow. It's nothing for anyone under 1k feet. It does hit overnight for most areas, so there is that potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Its Nov 11th, why is everyone expecting snowmageddon in mid Nov, lol? its not gonna stick around long, if at all, so screw it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 It loses most of its Energy so it ends up 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 The RGEM 18z paints a big time snowfall for all of W and C NY. This one might still have a trick or two up it’s sleeves. Every other model in the 1-6” range. I don’t care if it sticks around. It’s my best chance at our first inch. It’s always exciting. Any more than that is cake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 It does appear that as we approached this storm thermal profiles trended warmer than forecast just 48 hours ago. It does appear likely that it will just be sloppy and a bit slushy at lower levels through Tuesday afternoon when the cold air deepens. Might squeak and inch or two Tuesday evening but I think that's up in the air as well. Looks like November will be below normal when all is said and done but without any great accumulating snows at the lower levels to write home about. Bring on December!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 So whats the chances? haha I do like the HP out in front.. Active week ahead.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Mesoscale coming in with warning amounts for the elevations of WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Liking the look of the indices towards the end of the month...definitely trending in the right direction as we head towards meteorological winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Our big event this week will be from the LE, Tuesday afternoon and night through Wed, that's the time frame I'm keying in on,TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 KBUF Temperatures at 850 hPa will bottom out to around -15C Tuesday night across both lakes...which will increase lake induced equilibrium levels to around 12-14K feet. Deep moisture through the snow growth zone will produce light to moderate bands of snow downwind of Lake Erie, across the Boston Hills and western So. Tier where several inches of snow are likely. Across Lake Ontario, where better convergence along the long axis of the Lake will be found and an upstream connection to Georgian Bay, moderate to heavy snow is possible near Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego counties. The band of snow may meander some, and any changes in upstream wind flow could alter overall snow totals...thus at this time we will continue to mention the prospect for accumulating snows...potentially around a half a foot...SE of Lake Ontario in the HWO. If the band does not shift as much as the upper level trough passes overhead...then greater snow accumulation is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Little bit of improvement on the projected snowfall with 2”-3” “inching” its way towards me and obviously more towards Matt.. Temperatures and critical thicknesses will be marginally cold enough to support snow. Model consensus suggests that once precipitation starts and evaporation cools the air column, it will be cold enough to support snow in most locations. As a result, precipitation will start as a rain or snow mix, but then change over to snow. Warmer air aloft may change precipitation back to rain across southern and eastern portions of the cwa late in the night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Time for some ice hockey? Haha Not yet but it's been cold enough to start freezing over my pond.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Kbuf for the following event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Little bit of improvement on the projected snowfall with 2”-3” “inching” its way towards me and obviously more towards Matt.. Temperatures and critical thicknesses will be marginally cold enough to support snow. Model consensus suggests that once precipitation starts and evaporation cools the air column, it will be cold enough to support snow in most locations. As a result, precipitation will start as a rain or snow mix, but then change over to snow. Warmer air aloft may change precipitation back to rain across southern and eastern portions of the cwa late in the night. I am right on the 4 inch line. Almost all of the 12Z runs are showing 3 to 6 inches of snow for this area. Roads had to be plowed Friday and Saturday nights...already building snow "banks" (mini...Lol) along sides of roads. My guess is they will be much bigger by this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Tug Hill Matt is gonna be pretty popular around here. It’s going to be great to have eyes on the ground up in that region. I might become insanely jealous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Lets see how this one turns out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lets see how this one turns out lol Probably just like tomorrow's system...an illusion that Copperfield would be proud of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tug Hill Matt is gonna be pretty popular around here. It’s going to be great to have eyes on the ground up in that region. I might become insanely jealous. I have been trying to post pictures from my phone, but every image seems to be too many bytes. Don't know how to change that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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