rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 For the synoptic event, pretty much all the models are consistent in showing a warm layer holding firm over Monroe and Wayne. I think , with that track, it snows; but, at some point I’ve gotta stop arguing with the model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m a bit surprised nobody is chasing that Erie band. It being Saturday and all. I would be but have to work this morning. If it’s still there this afternoon I’ll be going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Pretty much why the GFS show a mix of rain and snow, personally i dont care about surface temps, ill leav that up to the nam... Gfs does sneak 925 above freezing for a short period of time as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Portion of the 90 is being shut down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Such a beautiful band, getting light snow here but 1-2”*+ an hour in that band south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 My Co worker lives in Springville and is stuck on the 219, blizzard conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 All the regulars getting it good. Fun time to in Springville or Dayton. Boston Hill Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 219 closed from Springville to Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 KBUF need to get the interns away from the forecast stations now that Winters back. What were they thinking with such paltry totals in the hills South? What did they have like 3-5" in that area. Stuff like this must frustrate the ****e out of the Mets in that Buffalo office, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: For the synoptic event, pretty much all the models are consistent in showing a warm layer holding firm over Monroe and Wayne. I think , with that track, it snows; but, at some point I’ve gotta stop arguing with the model consistency. At some point you should also change that Avatar, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 LO wind shift evident now, mid-Lake flying SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Expecting to see our sunny morning fade into some scattered snow showers soon as the winds are shifting now. The wind has been roaring today too with good mixing from all the sunshine. King city radar looking good even with synoptic moisture drying up. https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Our first event of the season has begun! Good luck to all who are affected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Hey all. Every year I get some sort of access to euro snow maps. Last year it was free for a while. I can’t find any free access- every year I forget a lot of my most used sources. Any good recommendations? First good storm I’ll change the avatar! Not until then! Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Is the snow up North heavy Wolfie as it looks kinda cellular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BUFFALO NY 434 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018 NYC011-049-075-102211- /O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0001.181110T2134Z-181110T2215Z/ 434 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018 Cayuga County-Lewis County-Oswego County- The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Southwestern Lewis County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 515 PM EST. * At 434 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from 20 miles northwest of Oswego to 7 miles north of Redfield, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 37. Locations impacted include... Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket and Mexico Point State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Snow totals south of Buffalo today. Cattaraugus County Perrysburg 13.8" 155 PM 11/10 Wyoming County Sheldon 12.0" 100 PM 11/10 Chautauqua County Forestville 11.5" 200 PM 11/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Springville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 I'll tell you what, I'm definitely not going to do what I just did, this winter, that's for damn sure. Basically just sat in front of my laptop just waiting for this intense single band to drop South out of Northern and Central Oswego County to the Southern part where I am, and I'm sure we all witnessed what happened to that band, as it dropped. What an absolute disgrace, seriously though. Just totally fell apart as it came ashore. It's not like it lost any significant variables as to why it fell apart so quickly,, so WTF made it fall apart like it did? I was like it hit a brick wall, as the greens and yellows turned into blues and browns, lol. It super early in the season, I know, so I'll stop now, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm sure we all witnessed what happened to that band, as it dropped. What an absolute disgrace, seriously though. Just totally fell apart as it came ashore. It's not like it lost any significant variables as to why it fell apart so quickly,, so WTF made it fall apart like it did? I was like it hit a brick wall, as the greens and yellows turned into blues and browns, lol. Mid level shear, well forecasted. Frustrating, but that’s the game, and it’s not like you won’t get plenty of chances over the next four and a half months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'll tell you what, I'm definitely not going to do what I just did, this winter, that's for damn sure. Basically just sat in front of my laptop just waiting for this intense single band to drop South out of Northern and Central Oswego County to the Southern part where I am, and I'm sure we all witnessed what happened to that band, as it dropped. What an absolute disgrace, seriously though. Just totally fell apart as it came ashore. It's not like it lost any significant variables as to why it fell apart so quickly,, so WTF made it fall apart like it did? I was like it hit a brick wall, as the greens and yellows turned into blues and browns, lol. It super early in the season, I know, so I'll stop now, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Next week you’ll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Shear, I seriously doubt it, but Im curious who forecasted it? Show me where, link, cause I didn't read that, but it doesn't really matter, like I already said, its the 10th of Nov and I can wait! KBGM 345 PM Update...Latest GOES-East WV shows a broad upper level trough firmly in place across the Northeast US. MRMS radar loop shows snow showers/flurries diminishing across most of central NY and NE PA...but a band of steady lake effect snow is now developing off of Lake Ontario and spreading across the Tug Hill Plateau. This band will shift south toward the NY Thruway corridor during the evening hours, bringing a period of light to moderate snow/blowing snow. 850mb temperatures continue to drop, now down to around -10 to -12C. Gusty WNW winds are still expected to peak during the early evening hours, and the wind advisory which is in effect through 10pm still looks good. Will also continue the winter weather advisory for lake effect snow across Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties starting later this afternoon through tonight. Northern Oneida county looks marginal for advisory amounts (1-3 inches), but the strong winds will create areas of blowing snow here this evening. Across the rest of the winter weather advisory area the flow veers to around 300 degrees or so this evening into tonight, and a well developed lake effect snow band is progged to set up from near Baldwinsville-- Syracuse--Cazenovia--Hamilton area by late evening...continuing into the overnight. Could easily see 2-5 inches, with locally higher amounts by the time the snow taper and ends Sunday morning, in the advisory area. Winds remain gusty into this evening, but slowly decrease overnight. Overnight lows will be cold, in the 20s to near 30. More details on the lake effect off of Ontario below: As flow veers a bit tonight, the Canadian Regional model which often does a great job with lake effect, along with higher resolution mesoscale models suggest an upstream lake-to-lake connection from Georgian Bay becoming established for a time overnight (after 10pm) as the primary Lake Ontario band sinks south towards northern Onondaga-Madison-southern Oneida counties. However, moisture depth will also be lowering which will have the dendritic growth zone temperatures at the top instead of the middle of the cloud layer. Thus while high end lake effect snow is not expected, it should be good enough for a narrow stripe of 3 to 5 inches or so including Baldwinsville- Cicero-north side of Syracuse- Canastota-Vernon- Waterville- Sauquoit areas. If the band can stay stationary, locally higher amounts are not out of the question (6-7"). This along with gusty winds/blowing snow, especially this evening as the band drops, compelled a Winter Weather Advisory to also be issued for Onondaga-Madison- Southern Oneida late afternoon through tonight. Not expecting much more than an inch or so of snow accumulation in the Utica metro area, as the band moves through quickly, then remains just south overnight. Atmosphere dried out, simple as that, shown well on WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 2 inches from the synoptic snow yesterday....3 inches this afternoon as the band went through. Band was moving pretty quickly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Next week you’ll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: 2 inches from the synoptic snow yesterday....3 inches this afternoon as the band went through. Band was moving pretty quickly. First taste of the tug. Just wait until your first real LES event, I’m excited for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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