rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Lots of consistency with the models for the Tuesday storm. It’s a perfect track for W and Central NY. The models always overdo the lake plain warming. If that track holds I’d expect a heavy, wet snow with accumulations in the 6-10” range from BUF to Rome. No exceptions. Hope it comes at nighttime. It’s gonna be a fun one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Man, just amazing consistency with next weeks system, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Looks like "showtime" tomorrow between 1pm-7pm before veering more northwesterly overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Ukmet has the perfect track, as it literally rides the coast, just to the East of the Spine of the Apps, from SW GA to NE Maine, in 24hrs. That event is gonna be a one two punch and the second may be a haymaker, and if it connects just right, it just may be the better of the 2, tbh, as -15C to -18C air causes complete havoc throughout the Great Lakes from Wednesday through Saturday. A steady/lined up flow of NW-WNW winds crossing bodies of water with surface temps still in their upper 40's, low 50's, in a few spots, lol. I seriously cant wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 That ULL crossing Southern MI should also enhance what LE that's already ongoing or even bring with it a dusting to an inch or 2 for all of W-CNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Right on schedule with the band starting to fire up. Still holding at 41 at KBUF... don’t see the transition starting any time too soon... . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Right on schedule with the band starting to fire up. Still holding at 41 at KBUF... don’t see the transition starting any time too soon... . 42.5 degrees here. Not a good feeling about this. Feel like the cold earlier held on a bit longer than forecasted but once the temp finally broke 33 degrees which it stayed until mid afternoon, it definitely warmed up quite a bit. Might have the band set up right over us but it's gonna be all liquid for at least the next 5-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 42.5 degrees here. Not a good feeling about this. Feel like the cold earlier held on a bit longer than forecasted but once the temp finally broke 33 degrees which it stayed until mid afternoon, it definitely warmed up quite a bit. Might have the band set up right over us but it's gonna be all liquid for at least the next 5-6 hours. At least its a nice strong reponse out of the gates. I think it will change to snow quicker than you think but actual accumulation will be slow with a very warm early season ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Why can't it set up right here when it's snow?!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 1:13 PM, southbuffalowx said: I'm not sure if you could consider that a true synoptic event. If it wasn't for the lakes, there would not have been much of a storm. Here's the event synopsis from the 2016 winter summary. A deep area of low pressure slowly traveled across southern Quebec over the weekend of the 19th and 20th. This system transported Atlantic moisture over the Eastern Great Lakes that fed abundant moisture into bands of lake effect snow that fell southeast of the Lower Great Lakes on a cold northwest flow. Nearly a foot of snow fell in spots southeast of Lake Erie, while more widespread amounts of a foot to a foot and a half fell from the Genesee Valley to the Northern Finger Lakes region. Across the southern Tug Hill region upwards to two feet of snow fell from this system. Here is the summary for the 2013 synoptic event I just mentioned. A synoptic low brought widespread snow late on the 26th and through Wednesday the 27th. This storm brought several inches of snow, with upwards of a half a foot of snow found across the Genesee Valley and Eastern Lake Ontario region, and near a foot across the hills well south of Buffalo. I meant to give you credit for this correction. I looked back in my weather journal and found this entry I made. Still an awesome storm... even though many of us seem to have forgotten about it, myself included. "A large lee side low formed over the plains this past week. This storm deepened into the first blizzard of the year over the upper plains. This storm then undercut a weak ridge and began to fill. A large and nearly subtropical low was stationary offshore of New Jersey. This large sub tropical low was slowly absorbed by the large dying winter storm crossing the lakes. Both storms finally phased in Eastern NY/Southern Quebec On Sunday the 20th. The storm rapidly deepened to 985mb before becoming stacked. An enormous and nearly endless supply of wrap around moisture was pulled around the storm with an amazing precip cutoff in WNY. This moisture combined with 850 temps of nearly -10 to -14 created intense and long lasting lake enhanced snows SE of the lakes. Boundary temps were questionable at the beginning of storm but eventually my backyard dropped into upper 20's under heaviest snow and accumulations quickly piled up. Buffalo received less than a half inch. Rochester recorded 14.8 inches even though it melted, compacted and settled tremendously so much that there was never really more than 6-8 inches on the ground. A Georgian bay connection was critical to priming the air for the western counties. Other places around the Eastern end of lake Ontario picked up from 2-5 feet of snow. This storm was considered one of the largest early season snow storms for our area in recorded history. Winds were also very strong and lasted for nearly 3 days. Gusts into the 40's and 50's were common." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Why can't it set up right here when it's snow?!? If that band keeps intensifying the way it appears to be right now, you might get some dynamic cooling in the heart of it and you'll get some snow/graupel. I probably should have chased this thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Why can't it set up right here when it's snow?!? Right! Some heavy duty cells rolling through. Winds are really picking up as well. Kinda surprised these haven’t put down any graupel yet... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 KABOOM! We have thunder! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: KABOOM! We have thunder! . Here too. Such a beautiful band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Not much change in the gfs. just a little west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 00Z NAM is all snow but there's a brief period of rn at the onset on Monday but its pretty much a 32F paste bomb, lol! 6-12" verbatim! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Good to hear because the gfs definitely has p-type issues and so does the Canadian lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 It's also 78-84 hr NAM so take it with a grain of salt, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 That band is already hugging the shore more than the models had earlier and is pretty organized...may briefly get disrupted in a couple of hours as the first trough passes but will re-organize early Saturday through much of the morning. It will likely lock in 10-15 miles south of where it is now early Saturday and should dump where that happens...hopefully that can affect some of you guys south of Buffalo. It should flip to snow within the next hour or two. Edit: based on dual pol the heart of the band is starting to flip now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Disappointing if it was just a few degrees colder we would be getting destroyed right now. Just had some more thunder and a lightning strike. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Models are in tremendous agreement wrt track but differ on thermal profiles.. Fv3 Continues to be in the snowy camp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Lock it in Wolfie, then LE for days, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Huge lightning bolt almost hit my house. Just dumping rain, so close to 4” per hour snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 It finally changed to wet snow, coming down heavily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Nam has a great handle on this band and it should be dropping South pretty quickly in the next hr or so. Actually it already is. Nam on point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 All SN on EURO for Mon-night-Tuesday then LE for a couple days. Will have WB soon but not till Dec 1st! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Not even a single flake here. Bummer. Band might make it back up to you BuffaloWeather but no way it makes it back up to me. Just gonna be a cold windy day here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 KBGM idea for tonight into Sunday. Guess I’m not getting the final lawn cut and leaves mulched up this weekend here just N of SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 U need to be a able to smell the taint lol I have a feeling this one is going to be a mess... KBUF We could see a few rain showers late Monday afternoon across the Niagara Frontier on the leading edge of the upper level trough, but the bulk of the precipitation will come Monday night and Tuesday. Initially precipitation will be rain, and may continue as rain through a good part of Monday night as a tight baroclinic boundary forms over NYS/New England. Temperatures at 850 hPa will likely rise to just above 0C late Monday and early Tuesday over our eastern zones, before much colder air of -10C at 850 hPa presses across the CWA behind the surface low. In all thermal profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow...that may linger as rain longest to the east Monday night before transitioning to all snow late Monday night and Tuesday. This synoptic snow looks a bit more impressive than the recent event of Friday. Will mention the possibility of accumulating snows of several inches in the HWO for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 I’m a bit surprised nobody is chasing that Erie band. It being Saturday and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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