wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 No room for error.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: No room for error.. That track would give WNY about 6 inches of snow...definitely as interesting to me as tomorrow morning is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Looks like the GTA would see around 1-3 inches of snow with that run with little mixing issues aside from immediate lakeshore. Sign me up for that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 12z gfs, 12z cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 U can see why the ggem looks like it does, in winter this would be a recipe for an ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 Top Analog for LES event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2009-2010&event=A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 12z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Give me 4” and I’ll be thrilled. Get to use the snowblower for the first time this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Started snowing big flakes here around 12:30 and continues. Trying to accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Started here as rain/snow but has since change over to all snow, obviously not expecting much if any accumulation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Gotta be honest the temp in Williamsville is still 33 and the radar and observations are showing moderate snow with the back edge of the precip almost upon us...not sure we ever see rain today and im curious about the warm wedge that's supposed to be here by 3 to 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Grass almost covered in Ontario, NY. Impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Ecm is east of 0z, looks similar to the ukmet, with surface Lp over nj into sne.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ecm is east of 0z, looks similar to the ukmet, with surface Lp over nj into sne.. Looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Parachutes falling from the sky, slowly accumulating on cold surfaces.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Amazing how different it is about 500 to 600 feet higher than you, wolfie. I sit at about 1200 to 1300 feet here, and am working towards an inch. With the way it is snowing now, it will pile up quickly. Only thing not covered is driveway and under pine trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Amplified upper troughing that progresses from the central through northeastern states Mon-Wed along with the circulation behind the leading East Coast storm system (leading to a period of breezy to windy conditions) will bring much below normal temperatures from the central U.S. into the East during that time frame. Some highs may be at least 15-25F below normal while anomalies for morning lows may be only a few degrees less extreme. Eastern U.S. storm evolution that includes a wavy warm front lifting northeast from the Gulf of Mexico will likely bring areas of heavy rainfall from parts of the Gulf Coast northeastward. Extent/axis of cold sector snowfall will be sensitive to storm track. Currently expect the Appalachians/western New England and points westward to see the best potential for any snow. Cold cyclonic low level flow will support periods of lake effect snow behind the system. Late in the week a clipper system may bring some moisture to parts of the Great Lakes region. As the upper pattern broadens somewhat the cold temperatures over the East should moderate late in the week but still remain below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Snow accumulating on all surfaces...trees look beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 Trends not looking good for the city and the LES band tonight/tomorrow, and the system next week looks to go further and further East with each run. 1-2" for Metro over the next 10 days looks likely. But it's November 9th and we're supposed to be around 50 still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 While I agree about the lake snows being all but dead for metro tomorrow the easterly track of the storm actually takes away any possibility of mixing or even rain at lower elevations Tuesday...AFD out of buffalo just mentioned that while the main storm will be hugging the coast it is the upper trough which will help drag the moisture back and create snow for Monday night and Tuesday...i still think Tuesday is 2 to 4 with a Genesee bonus of 5 in there but it's nit picky honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Thumping nicely right now where I am as well as sticking to all surfaces except that of concreteSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 When I left the crib it was thumping nicely, just got to Syracuse and it has flipped back over to rain. I think the snow that I'm seeing at the house versus what I'm seeing here is mainly intensity driven.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 18z??? If so just saw the snow forecast 10 to 1 ratio kbuf was 4" ksyr 10"...this has been incredibly consistent the last 24 hours. I'm liking what im seeing...also a bit surprised the WWA is still in effect for northern Erie as latest AFD states most potential for more than 4" is southern Erie and Northwestern Chautauqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 It would look better if the models didn't continuously warm us up lol They just don't want it to snow in the valley's or near L. Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Is that, to my untrained eye, a lake response already forming at the eastern end of Lake Erie and out over the eastern Niagara Peninsula??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It would look better if the models didn't continuously warm us up lol They just don't want it to snow in the valley's or near L. Ontario.. So its gonna snow everywhere to the NW of the system except from KROC to Oswego, lol! I'll believe that when I see that, actually happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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