BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 Band is going to be really strong for a time Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Today was definitely a transition day here. Temperature dropping during the day with occasional grauple showers. Hoping for a couple inches of synoptic snowfall tomorrow, and then more from lake effect. Looks like you Buffalo folks are going to get in on the.snow bands. Enjoy! You guys will have well over a foot by next weekend up there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Band is going to be really strong for a time Saturday Was just going to post that the 00z 3km NAM moved the band much further north then the 18z run. Pretty big difference in sensible impacts for the southtowns from one run to another. Top 18z, bottom 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You guys will have well over a foot by next weekend up there. Next week is looking fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Rgem now in range.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Unfortunately i'm thinking this is going to be a transition band, GFS has been pretty steady at wsw-wnw-nw.. This is also shown well on the Nam products and probably the rgem extrapolated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 39 minutes ago, OHweather said: The lake effect Friday night through Saturday night is intriguing, though wind direction may not be great for some of you. With the synoptic precip Friday morning temp profiles are close to supporting snow...there will be some dynamic cooling as lift is pretty good and the precip will be moderate, so the higher terrain in NE OH and NW PA will probably try to flip to snow for an hour or two...it may be enough to try to start lightly coating grassy surfaces and such...lakeshore probably just sees rain. NW OH a bit colder and better timing so will probably be some grassy accums there to start Friday. For the lake effect over the weekend, it's honestly more impressive than I initially thought parameter wise, but some questions about the duration and wind direction make it hard to be confident about a lot of snow falling in any given spot. My impression based on the parameters alone is that someone will hit the 6"/12 hour or 8"/24 hour warning criteria, but a band will need to lock in somewhere for that to happen. The band will start taking shape late Friday evening as winds line up out of the WSW. With an approaching upper-low and extreme instability developing, it will likely be intense...it may graze the Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie lakeshore for a time, but at some point between 1 AM and 5 AM Saturday will lift out over the lake and come inland south of BUF as winds go more SW. The band will likely be mixed before midnight, but after midnight as 850mb temps crash to -10 to -12C by daybreak the band will be all snow/graupel down to the shoreline given its likely intensity. Winds lock in for a few hours Saturday morning, which could allow the band to slow enough to drop substantial amounts on parts of SW NY along the lakeshore and inland into the southern Buffalo suburbs. Instability will be extreme, with equilibrium heights of near 20k feet thanks to hilarious lake-to-500mb differentials of -45C (approaching -48C briefly). Wind speeds will be strong, but when the band is completely parallel to the long axis of the lake that should allow it to be organized enough. Given the instability, large-scale lift with the upper-low, full-lake fetch and strong convergence the band into SW NY will have a lot of lightning and likely contain very high rates...despite the wet snow, over 2" per hour will be possible. Even though the duration is only a few hours, the possibility exists for up to a foot in SW NY if the band locks in Saturday morning. This could graze northeastern Erie County but I suspect if it locks in it does so just up the shore from Erie proper...though they could get grazed for a time late Friday night/early Saturday and see some snow. The band will swing into most of the primary NW PA and NE OH Snowbelt Saturday afternoon as a surface trough pushes through and brings the winds around to the WNW over the lake. It probably won't sit over the lakeshore for more than an hour or two as the wind shift is fairly sharp and abrupt, but given the likely instability and forcing it could drop a quick inch or two of snow/graupel near the shore. As for how far south the band can push and what kind of amounts it can drop inland, winds on land don’t really back from WSW as the surface high starts building in quickly Saturday evening. With WNW winds over the lake the band can probably get down to about Downtown and then push east across NE Cuyahoga and into northern Geauga, north of 322. It should get into central and southern Ashtabula as well as most of Erie County, but likely struggles to push into Crawford PA. It may maintain this southern extent for a few hours before drifting back north Saturday evening. The upper support quickly departs late Saturday afternoon and the inversion height lowers substantially, so the band intensity will likely be more moderate when it reaches its southernmost point…it could drop a light/slushy accum on the Cuyahoga lakeshore from Downtown points NE and perhaps a quick 1-3” inland in a few hours. Overnight Saturday night instability does remain sufficient as the ridge builds in and slowly backs winds over land and pushes the lake effect back up the shoreline. With lightening wind speeds and lake to 850mb diffs remaining easily over 20C through the night, it wouldn’t surprise me if a moderate band or two does reorganize from parts of Lake County and perhaps the chimney of Geauga northeast across northern/central Ashtabula County and northern/central Erie County PA, perhaps into Chautauqua County NY as well later in the night. This band won’t be as intense, but will have light winds and good convergence so should be organized and likely won’t move quickly, so it could drop another 2-6” overnight Saturday night into early Sunday where it sets up. Overall the potential for heaviest snow will be Saturday morning in SW NY and perhaps extreme NE Erie County, and I’m thinking a quick 6-12” with that where the band sets up…shouldn’t have issues accumulating along the lake given temps aloft and the expected intensity. Expecting a quick 1-4” across the primary Snowbelt as the band swings south Saturday afternoon/early evening before lifting back north…in Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties this is likely confined to along/north of 322 as it looks now. I expect another few inches in the northern Snowbelt overnight Saturday night into early Sunday as bands re-organize and slowly drift north as the surface ridge builds in and as enough instability hangs on. Forgive the crude map, I never had a chance to make a nicer base that included NW PA and up to Buffalo last winter and don't right now either. I will likely adjust this Friday at some point since I'm off and we're getting another monsoonal here tomorrow afternoon/evening, to nail down the SW NY band better and take another look at the Saturday night amounts/placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Unfortunately, winds are extremely transitional throughout the period, with maybe a few places cashing in on over a foot and that would be the traditional belts in Oswego cty and the Southtowns of KBUF. Next week however looks fabulous from this far out but that can change either way but one thing that for sure, is its gonna get cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 You know I think it was BW that said how our local Mets weren't that good anymore...well I have to agree even more. I just watched WIVB 4 in buffalo and for next tues-Wed he has 37 and 40 degrees...i have looked at 1 model that shows temps that warm during that timeframe next week...oh and FWIW the 6z GFS has WNY and CNY getting pounded by next Tuesdays storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 WWA posted!URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Buffalo NY353 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018NYZ010-011-091700-/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0060.181110T0800Z-181110T1800Z/Northern Erie-Genesee-Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia353 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. Generally along and south of a Buffalo to Batavia line.* WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be reduced in falling and blowing snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 If that system for next week comes even close to coming to fruition, the way the 06Z shows it, we'll have 2-3' otg, by next weekend, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Starting real early and wasting no time either, but I fear a thaw is already reeling its ugly head, come mid-Dec but maybe not so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Bit concerned if we do realize the higher end of the 3-5” closer to the city we might have some tree issues. The winds the other day cleaned off many trees but there are still numerous trees here that are still rather full.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Wow, that's just nuts as we have bare trees everywhere, weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Moderate snow transit and wehrle...sticking to everything but roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Moderate snow transit and wehrle...sticking to everything but roads. I was checking out webcams of the Buffalo area. Looks like some nice-sized flakes coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Nice start here already and pounding snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 54 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Wow, that's just nuts as we have bare trees everywhere, weird! Normally hang onto our leaves a couple weeks later here. Guessing it’s warming influence of the lake. Pay for it in the spring though with a bit later leaf out when lake keeps us cooler. Snow is falling pretty good here with a nice coating on shrubs and rooftops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Wow, that's just nuts as we have bare trees everywhere, weird!Urban areas tend to hold onto leaves longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 Was snowing here all morning and was sticking to grass. NWS talks about 2" per hour. Won't take long to get half a foot with those rates. ERIE ehind the cold front we`ll see some of the chilliest air of the young winter season with 850 hPa temperatures dropping to around -11C over Lake Erie by Saturday morning...and -8C over Lake Ontario. This will increase lake induced equilibrium levels northward of 15K feet by Saturday morning. With the base of the upper level trough over Michigan tonight, the flow of cold air will initially be southwest at the surface. This will bring lake bands of initially rain along the Lake Erie coastline and inland across the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills. Lake effect rain should quickly transition over the snow through the night within the strong cold air advection. Winter weather advisories will start tonight to account for lake effect snow. The steep inversion heights, combined with fairly strong convergent lift in the lower levels and deep moisture into the base of the snow dendritic growth zone should take a broad band of snow over the western Southern Tier and consolidate it on a SW flow towards the Buffalo southtowns, and possibly as far north as the city of Buffalo and the airport by late in the night. As the band consolidates it could produce snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour...for which a winter weather advisories will be extended as far north as northern Erie and Genesee Valley...where in a brief window starting late tonight a band of moderate snow is possible. Reduced visibilities in both falling and blowing snow and gusty winds will slow travel within the band of snow. Saturday will be winter-like with cold and windy daytime conditions along with some lake effect snow. There is likely to be a well organized lake effect band off Lake Erie early Saturday morning. A southwesterly flow just ahead of an approaching upper level trough will tap into synoptic moisture and ample lake induced instability. The well organized band should be both brief and mobile which will limit snowfall totals and keep amounts in the advisory range. Expect the band to be near the Buffalo metro area daybreak Saturday, but to push quickly southward during the morning when winds shift to the northwest with the passage of the surface trough. Snowfall rates of 2 inches an hour can be expected with this band. ONTARIO Lake effect snow will become better organized northeast of Lake Ontario mid to late morning, with modest accumulations there. Meanwhile the trough will continue to move across the rest of the area during the day Saturday, with this helping to pick up and transport lake moisture further inland. This will result modest snow accumulation just east of the lakes, with brief burst of snow further inland and away from the lakes. Expect lake effect snows to be poorly organized late afternoon and into Saturday evening due to drier air and strong winds and mixing behind the front. In addition to the snow, Saturday will be a windy day. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph can be expected, which will potentially require a wind advisory. Winds will be most persistent downwind of the lakes. Daytime temperatures will only be in the 30s. A northwesterly flow will focus lake effect snows east and southeast of the lakes Saturday night. Moisture from Lake Huron and diminishing winds should allow lake snows to briefly become better organized late Saturday night, especially off Lake Ontario where it will be colder aloft. This will support minor additional accumulations. On Sunday, the mid-level flow will become more zonal, with warming air aloft and lowering equilibrium levels will cause lake effect snows to diminish. Snow should taper off Sunday afternoon off Lake Erie and Sunday night off Lake Ontario. Lake effect clouds will linger, but the vast majority of the region should be dry Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Wow, that's just nuts as we have bare trees everywhere, weird! We haven’t had a hard freeze yet here and from what I recall seeing we have only had one frost so far which was last week. Had a really good hour of snow gave everything a good coating but the rate has slowed down and the costing is melting fast. Nice welcome to the snow season for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 The lake is gonna do what the lake wants to do tonight. It should be exciting to track this with the uncertainty... on the same hand I’m holding onto some amount of disappointment just in case this thing doesn’t make it up to us in the metro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Normally hang onto our leaves a couple weeks later here. Guessing it’s warming influence of the lake. Pay for it in the spring though with a bit later leaf out when lake keeps us cooler. Snow is falling pretty good here with a nice coating on shrubs and rooftops. 23 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Urban areas tend to hold onto leaves longer. . Urban areas and near bodies of water don't get the early deep freezes that cause leaves to wither and fall off faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: The lake is gonna do what the lake wants to do tonight. It should be exciting to track this with the uncertainty... on the same hand I’m holding onto some amount of disappointment just in case this thing doesn’t make it up to us in the metro... I think where you live is a slam dunk for 3 to 6...where I live in Williamsville a couple at best is my hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 FWIW the euro and Canadian are on the warmish side for Tuesday storm, good track but verbatim a mix .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: FWIW the euro and Canadian are on the warmish side for Tuesday storm, good track but verbatim a mix .. I don't have the privilege of seeing the euro...is that mix in CNY or all NY??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Euro brings the LP through Eastern NY, which normally would be preferred..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Some precip falls before the mid levels warm, verbatim probably snow to rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Not sure i buy the ggem and its warm wedge through cny lol Ill take my chance with that track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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