wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 It won't be a block buster but at least snow will be in the air, i'd be happy with a few inches with more opportunity for snow next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Just like the other cold shots and lake effect opportunities so far this fall, this one is looking less exciting with every discussion. Agreed, unless we're getting overly enthused about a mediocre mid fall weather pattern, which may very well be the case. Unless we see where this trough for next week set's up, then we really cant pin-point any real sensible weather cause the pattern is in transition in which models are notorious for either bringing the cold to quick or too slow, so. From these eyes, the pattern is quite ripe for something significant to pop, especially early next week, but where seems to be the question, I DO NOT believe the NWS with their LP track freom Erie across LO into the St Law valley then a transfer. So esentially their expecting the primary to hang on for a very long time before transferring most of its energy earlier to the developing coastal, like down across the Delmarva, and this can be because of the still somewhat northerly positioned Jet Stream that's still in the process of dropping with natural seasonal changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 It’s November 7th guys...average high today is still 50 degrees here. We don’t live in northern Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Yeah this weeks LE potential went from good to so-so to straight horrific, lol, not that it was all that great to begin with but it got better for KBUF which may be the winner for this early dwindling event. I was at lest confident at one point we'd at least have snow in the air Saturday but now I'm starting to question that as well, but North of me around WOlfie and MAtt it still looks decent, and by decent I mean 2-4" if lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s November 7th guys...average high today is still 50 degrees here. We don’t live in northern Canada. True, said this before! Perhaps we're expecting too much for this time of yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Average high/low today: BUF: 51.1/ 36.5 Syracuse: 52.1/ 36.7 I mean we need 10-20 degree below normal temps to even get snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: True, said this before! Perhaps we're expecting too much for this time of yr. I mean the potential is there. The cold air will 100% be there, synoptic support will be there, shear is an issue. But if this comes to fruition you guys will be happy. The 3 lake super connection is starting to show up next Tues/Weds. That band would produce 2-4"+ per hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I mean the potential is there. The cold air will 100% be there, synoptic support will be there, shear is an issue. But if this comes to fruition you guys will be happy. The 3 lake super connection is starting to show up next Tues/Weds. That band would produce 2-4"+ per hour. This cant happen, lol, because the heaviest part of the band is literally right over my house, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Hey, we have had mostly 30s and 40s for highs the past 3 weeks with rain almost every day....just eager to see something other than Seattle weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Cave towards the euro? looks that way, at least on the canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 whats the next frame look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Tropical tidbits shows all rain, wb has a ton of sleet/snow, so yeah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I don't care what any model says, if that slp is to our SE by 200+ miles, we snow, simple as that! Winds would of gone N-NW by now and would usher in very cold air as well so IDK what these models are catching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 How would it still be raining in KPIT with that surface depiction, NO WAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I think this maps looks like the best representation with what I think may happen wit next weeks system. Primary gets to about SW WV then pops a secondary down near the outer banks and comes right up the coast. We'll see how this wrks out during the coming days. The models are in no sort of agreement at all wrt next weeks system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 FV3 Pretty much unchanged.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 FV3 Pretty much unchanged..What an awesome track this would be if f in the middle of Winter, wow, but I think we see quite a few of these this yr, for sure. STJ will be rockin and rollin as well this yr, so theres quite a few ways we can see active weather around these parts this yrs.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 And just like that the snow potential for BUF goes POOF! 12k tries to get it close to the metro but the 3k keeps it well south... oh well... nice discussion from NWS on the reasoning behind the model spread.The upper level trough will slowly move eastward and across ourregion through Saturday. This sets the stage for the firstsignificant lake effect snows of the season. Model guidance is inpoor agreement, with a wide spread in the track and strength of thislow leading to uncertainty in the wind direction. The modeldisagreement is likely due to the close proximity of a closed, ornearly closed, 500 mb low which is often challenging for modelguidance to accurately predict. The most noteworthy model differenceis the NAM which forecasts southwesterly winds which would suggest agreater potential for snow in the Buffalo metro area Friday nightinto Saturday. Although it is possible this will verify, the overallmodel consensus suggests it is less likely to verify. It is morelikely that the steadiest snows will be across the traditional snowbelts south of the Buffalo metro area, and east of Lake Ontarioalong the Tug Hill Plateau.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 A general 3"-5" expected for sat along ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 8-12" across Boston Hills. That would be worthy of some headlines. Early season events always go a little further north than expected so we might have a decent shot here for a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 The models ALWAYS undersell the warmer lakes and how the bend to the band can send lake snows further north than modeled...happens every year and every year it is forgotten about!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The models ALWAYS undersell the warmer lakes and how the bend to the band can send lake snows further north than modeled...happens every year and every year it is forgotten about!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Sign me up for the nam lol It would be a little more feasible in the heart of winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Sign me up for the nam lol It would be a little more feasible in the heart of winter.. That would be a nice front end thump. BUF did change the snow forecast maps to just include tomorrow. Several inches area wide. What model or program do they use to produce those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: That would be a nice front end thump. BUF did change the snow forecast maps to just include tomorrow. Several inches area wide. What model or program do they use to produce those maps? Tropical Tidbits Forecast GIF on the bottom right of the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 All 3 stations In House models show the band hitting Buffalo for at least a few hours. Definitely a tough forecast. Going to be a nowcast event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now