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That happens all the time though. We get cold fronts here where it goes from 70s to 20s in a few hours with lake effect bands coming behind it dumping feet of snow. What happened today is extremely rare. I didn't think you could get a supercell like what happened over West Seneca and snow in the same day. It has to only happened a handful of times. 

It was in July bro, that will NEVER happen here, NEVER, but!perhaps you didnt see the July part.

 

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We have had on and off flakes for the majority of the overnight/morning hours,  may be able to squeak out a coating or so tomorrow morning with a transient band that will be swinging through the area..

 

A continued shift of the area of high pressure to the east tonight
will allow the low level flow to back to west then southwest. A
period of better lake fetch, particularly on Lake Ontario may
be favorable enough to reinvigorate the lake effect
precipitation as this backing transition takes place, although
relatively low inversion heights and weak warm air advection
will likely greatly limit the intensity of this activity. Most
areas will see low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid
30s.

 

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4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

It was in July bro, that will NEVER happen here, NEVER, but!perhaps you didnt see the July part.

 

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Oh I missed that, yeah that is pretty insane actually! I know Denver gets some pretty crazy snowstorms in early winter and late spring, especially at higher elevations. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The next month continues to look below normal. Maybe that 76-77 analog is on to something. ^_^

WK34temp.gif

Again alot of great indicators pointing to really good possibilities of BN temps in the east. IF this 3 to 4 week outlook verifies there's no doubt in my mind that someone in our CWA will see the first significant LES event.

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Again alot of great indicators pointing to really good possibilities of BN temps in the east. IF this 3 to 4 week outlook verifies there's no doubt in my mind that someone in our CWA will see the first significant LES event.

That definitely looks to be the case, but kind of sucks were wasting so much of the lakes energy on 40s and cloudy. Lakes will be well below normal by the time it matters. 

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0z Canadian 
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144-168.thumb.gif.eeaff6d8bd0dfde0a9214aa4d6815152.gif
0z Gfs
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh156-180.thumb.gif.88a60ca83746cda6a5fbd3b562254d77.gif
That's perfect for the GFS at this lead time! I hope it stays this way for days.

Just figures that a healthy band forms right over us here in CNY, just as the temps started to go up, lol. Man what horrific luck. I shouldn't even be lookin for snow yet as its before Halloween for crying out loud. To to early man, I need to wake up.

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17 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

That system starts out tropical then transitions to extra tropical? It’s down to 974 mb over Norfolk, VA before weakening. Just what eastern South and North Carolina doesn’t need!

From kbuf this morning 

 

Saturday night into Sunday features increasing chances for showers
and rain. The source of this rain per global models looks to be
Hurricane Willa in the eastern Pacific basin. The remnants of Willa
are forecast to work east across the southern CONUS through the week
then emerge somewhere east of the Carolinas or Florida before
lifting north along the East Coast as a deepening extratropical
cyclone. Being 6-7 days out, the models show some timing differences
with the 12z EC being fastest with moisture arrival across New
York followed by the GEM while the GFS keeps the system to our east
with a potential for little to no rain from it. This will be
interesting to watch evolve in future models runs. Otherwise, temps
are forecast to run about 5 degrees below normal on Sunday
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On 10/20/2018 at 11:48 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

That happens all the time though. We get cold fronts here where it goes from 70s to 20s in a few hours with lake effect bands coming behind it dumping feet of snow. What happened today is extremely rare. I didn't think you could get a supercell like what happened over West Seneca and snow in the same day. It has to only happened a handful of times. 

I would like to see the radar loops from when this "tornado" happened.  If the parent cell from this storm came off the lake I have to assume this was just some amped up waterspout as lake induced instability was likely cranking out a ton of spouts over the lake.  This cell just happened to maintain some rotation once inland an dropped this hyrbid spout. This certainly wasnt a standard 50K foot tall supercell.

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On 10/20/2018 at 12:59 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

What is the FV3 version of the GFS? 

https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

Anyone know the accuracy of it compared to the normal GFS?

Its skill scores are slightly higher than the existing gfs. It also doesn't over-intensify hurricanes, which of course the current one does. 

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34 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I would like to see the radar loops from when this "tornado" happened.  If the parent cell from this storm came off the lake I have to assume this was just some amped up waterspout as lake induced instability was likely cranking out a ton of spouts over the lake.  This cell just happened to maintain some rotation once inland an dropped this hyrbid spout. This certainly wasnt a standard 50K foot tall supercell.

That's what I was thinking but then heard an EF1 hit Canada. So it definitely happens?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311644883_A_Unique_Cold-Season_Supercell_Produces_an_EF1_'Snownado'

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is that percentage abnormally high? 90%+ or around the norm?

Yep. Its anomaly correlation so no percentage. It goes down in the summer and up in the winter. Predictability is worse in the summer because of weaker systems and shorter wave lengths. I can't seem to find the year to year improvement plot. 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yep. Its anomaly correlation so no percentage. It goes down in the summer and up in the winter. Predictability is worse in the summer because of weaker systems and shorter wave lengths. I can't seem to find the year to year improvement plot. 

That's really interesting, I figured it would be the opposite. 

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