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We will struggle to make it out of the 30's on Sunday and Monday..

Quote

Through this time period we will transition from slight ridging
aloft, to a long wave trough of low pressure, one that will bring
the coldest air of the season thus far to our region.

Friday night and into Saturday a downward trend to the temperatures
will take place as a shortwave passes across the region. For now, it
looks like this feature will not tap into deeper moisture from the
south, and the biggest impact will be a turn to colder temperatures
and rain showers mixing with snow. Lake moisture will enhance these
rain showers Saturday to the east and northeast of the Eastern Great
Lakes. By Saturday night temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will drop to
around -6 to -8C, cold enough to allow for lake effect precipitation
to develop. As another shortwave deepens the trough over the Eastern
Great Lakes, our flow of cold air will remain WNW and lake effect
showers/snow will focus upon the western So. Tier and along the
southern Lake Ontario shoreline/Finger Lakes region. By Sunday
morning as the core of the cold air passes, most of the CWA will
have a chance for some wet snow flakes. Highs both weekend days will
only be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s...or about 10 to 15 degrees
below normal.

 Source

 

 

51ABDA52-DD2B-4B13-AE71-D9A0552BE898.jpeg

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Could this be the first month since April that we finish below average in the mean? Yes there were quite a few warm to even hot days the first week of the month with temperatures some 20+ degrees above normal in some of those days, however , if days like Wednesday and a good chunk of next week beginning Sunday materialize we could be looking at temps some 20 degrees below normal...will be close for the month.

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26 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Could this be the first month since April that we finish below average in the mean? Yes there were quite a few warm to even hot days the first week of the month with temperatures some 20+ degrees above normal in some of those days, however , if days like Wednesday and a good chunk of next week beginning Sunday materialize we could be looking at temps some 20 degrees below normal...will be close for the month.

Could be, but I think November ends up above normal. Wish it was reversed.

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I'm riding the 02-03' analog as if my life depended on it, lol. It's nearly a spitting image in the means wrt where we are now and where we're headed. Cold last half of October only to be greeted by a warmer but near seasonal early to mid- November then the hammer comes down and crushes us right through the holidays and beyond! Wire to wire rarely ever happens. Can it happen, yes but highly unlikely. We all forget winter doesn't officially start till Dec 1st for Mets and 21st for the public.

Wind is really bad as I've lost power twice now. A third time will end it. Man is it howling out there right now though. The NWS mentioned gales behind front but nothing even close to what's happening.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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gfs_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif

 

With these 850's down to near -10C 06z Thurs through about 18z, with a mean flow out of the NW veering with time into the WNW, there should be some kind of frozen precip around the area, especially at higher elevations, The lake plain should see some action as well with those kinds of temps.  The Tug is likely looking at their first trace to 2" like I said a couple days ago as temps have actually trended a bit lower than they were first progged a couple days ago.  This weekend there's even a better shot at accumulations for primarilly the Tug, as a deep trough drops out of the upper mid west through the area with highs approaching 522dm and that's definitely abnormally low for this time of year for sure.  Too bad there's no real moisture there to interact with these shots of below normal air, the first of the season but certainly not the last.

 

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Saw my first snowflakes of the season this morning here on the Tug.
My wife and I were coming home from a short ttrip to the Berkshires. When we got to Utica, it was in the mid 40s with drizzle. On the other side of Rome, in Taberg, it was raining and upper 30s. Snowflakes started mixing in once we got to Florence and continued up here in Redfield with temps in the mid 30s.

 

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I know, it so far into fantasyland Disney wants to trademark it, but the hours between 300 and 364 on the GFS all day have been hinting at a deep storm that brings on the coldest air of the young season by Halloween. Why I think this is something to watch is at the very same timeframe the NAO goes negative and PNA positive as BuffaloWeather pointed out earlier. The 18z does show a cold blast where the 540 line reaches well into the south near Georgia and a decent snowfall behind a wrapped up low that gets hung up in eastern Canada. The model run itself is speculative at best but I believe it's the premise of what is trying to be shown that matters. 

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11 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I know, it so far into fantasyland Disney wants to trademark it, but the hours between 300 and 364 on the GFS all day have been hinting at a deep storm that brings on the coldest air of the young season by Halloween. Why I think this is something to watch is at the very same timeframe the NAO goes negative and PNA positive as BuffaloWeather pointed out earlier. The 18z does show a cold blast where the 540 line reaches well into the south near Georgia and a decent snowfall behind a wrapped up low that gets hung up in eastern Canada. The model run itself is speculative at best but I believe it's the premise of what is trying to be shown that matters. 

Yeah, there is a big signal around Halloween with that blocking. Looks like a retrograde low. Still way to far out though. 

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