wolfie09 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Chilly night ahead, frost advisory issued.. ..FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Frost Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday. * LOCATIONS...Oswego County. Locations well inland from lake Ontario. * TEMPERATURE...In the mid 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 For some reason I can't load the snapshot but the 12z GFS at hour 240 to 264 looked mighty nice for first true cold air, transient, but cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5, 2018 Author Share Posted October 5, 2018 Car read 44 on the way to work today. Body was a little bit in shock when I walked outside this morning. Next Sunday/Monday looks pretty cold, could be our first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5, 2018 Author Share Posted October 5, 2018 ECMWF Euro monthlies are all cold December through March. Cold is not extreme but no warm months are shown after October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 This will be one of the coldest and snowiest winter seasons in a long time. A definite memorable one is on tap, for sure. To much in our favor for it to go the other way. I hope I dont eat crow in March but I've eatennitmany times already, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Anyone want to take a very early guess at seasonal totals for upstate major locations? here’s my guesses KBUF: 89.1” KROC: 106.7” KSYR: 128.9” KART: 114.2” KALB: 45.0” KBGM: 68.3” KITH: 58.9” KJHW: 103.4” KIAG: 72.5” KFZY: 186.6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Kroc 124.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 12 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Anyone want to take a very early guess at seasonal totals for upstate major locations? here’s my guesses KBUF: 89.1” KROC: 106.7” KSYR: 128.9” KART: 114.2” KALB: 45.0” KBGM: 68.3” KITH: 58.9” KJHW: 103.4” KIAG: 72.5” KFZY: 186.6” Whatever the normals are, I'm going 5-10% higher for this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Prepping for winter? Haha Its been a little dry as of late, looking good for some needed rain this week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Prepping for winter? Haha Its been a little dry as of late, looking good for some needed rain this week.. Dry as of late? It has been raining LOTS the past couple weeks...at least here to your east. The first half of July was super dry...but since then it has been rain rain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Some big time training storms are coming through tonight. Constant thunder and lightning right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Some big time training storms are coming through tonight. Constant thunder and lightning right now. I just had a lighting alert on my phone saw that radar... WOW impressive. You look like your gonna get crushed those storms are coming right down the tracks... If those do train could be some flooding issue in your area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 These storms are rocking it out tonight. Impressive thunder and lightning here and I’m no where near the main line of storms.FFW for southern Erie county. Still a lot of rain to come though.... could be 3-4” totals possible by end of the night. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Almost reminds me of the flooding that hit Gowanda about 7 or 8 years ago after storms trained that area to the tune of about 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Northern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 230 AM EDT. * At 1028 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Dunkirk, Fredonia, Springville, Westfield, Gowanda, Silver Creek, North Collins, Ashford Hollow, Chaffee and Lake Erie State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Friday to Tuesday next week looks pretty cold. Definite first flakes for higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Couple little rogue cells poppin tonight. Lots of lightning out over the lake. Saw this little hail spike on the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Im kinda shocked this thread isn't at least discussing the prospects for the first flakes this weekend over the tug and interior western southern tier. And Monday-Wednesday timeframe looks to bring an actual cold airmass with 40's for highs if the GFS has been correct the past 8 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Im kinda shocked this thread isn't at least discussing the prospects for the first flakes this weekend over the tug and interior western southern tier. And Monday-Wednesday timeframe looks to bring an actual cold airmass with 40's for highs if the GFS has been correct the past 8 runs or so. Looks meh. Maybe highest hilltops over the Southern Tier (over 2k') and some of the dacks catch a few mangeled flakes but for the other 99.5 % of us we'll see just plain old rain with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. Will certainly feel like fall though, and definitely a step in the right direction. It sure beats mid 80s while trying to pick out a pumpkin... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I know it's in fantasy land but the GFS is really showing true cold air at the end of the 00z run that would leave no doubt about what form precip would be in. And that's after the chilly air this weekend into early next week...i think this hurricane has really done all of us a solid and pushed the Bermuda high back where it belongs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Colors really starting to blossom here, went up to Watertown the other day to some awesome colors, caught me off guard lol I may have to take my first trip to the Adirondacks to see beauty at its best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 14 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Im kinda shocked this thread isn't at least discussing the prospects for the first flakes this weekend over the tug and interior western southern tier. And Monday-Wednesday timeframe looks to bring an actual cold airmass with 40's for highs if the GFS has been correct the past 8 runs or so. Still very early in the season. First flakes aren't all that exciting in October. First measurable snow is whole different story. This board will light up once we get into Mid November if there are legit chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Still very early in the season. First flakes aren't all that exciting in October. First measurable snow is whole different story. This board will light up once we get into Mid November if there are legit chances. It usually lights up with first lake effect event. I always get excited for first flakes but tough to not enjoy the weather out right now. Took the dog for a walk last night and still felt like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Colors really starting to blossom here, went up to Watertown the other day to some awesome colors, caught me off guard lol I may have to take my first trip to the Adirondacks to see beauty at its best.. I’d say for my part of CNY this year is a fail for foliage. More than 50% of the leaves already down and colors have been underwhelming to say the least. Mostly muted yellows and browns. Im not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 The remainder of October looks below normal. Many in our forum will see flakes before the month is over. I wish this cool down was mid month next month. Due to climo it's really hard to get good snow in October. Need everything to work out perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 I'm actually most excited for Matt up in the Tug. Unless I'm mistaken, he hasn't seen an Eastern lake effect snow band going full force. Hopefully we get a nice 12" per hour band going off the tug sometime this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 BuffaloWeather...you have said on numerous occasions that the one winter season that you keep coming back to in the analogs is 76-77. If im not mistaken didn't that year start cold in mid October and just go full force winter right through mid February? I'm not suggesting that is what is going to happen here as that is a once in a lifetime winter, but, I do wonder if we may get into a pattern evolution that may take the form of what our winter on a whole will look like...your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 8 hours ago, cny rider said: I’d say for my part of CNY this year is a fail for foliage. More than 50% of the leaves already down and colors have been underwhelming to say the least. Mostly muted yellows and browns. Im not sure why. I have noticed that as well. I was wondering if it was normal for the area. 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm actually most excited for Matt up in the Tug. Unless I'm mistaken, he hasn't seen an Eastern lake effect snow band going full force. Hopefully we get a nice 12" per hour band going off the tug sometime this winter. Thanks! I have never experienced a band off of Lake Ontario. I am starting to get excited with snow shower possibilities showing up for next week. My boss here said that he has seen 2 feet of snow on October 24th before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I have noticed that as well. I was wondering if it was normal for the area. Thanks! I have never experienced a band off of Lake Ontario. I am starting to get excited with snow shower possibilities showing up for next week. My boss here said that he has seen 2 feet of snow on October 24th before. Here is a good link to get caught up on the last 25 years of LES events. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=A Redfields biggest event: 142" https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=L 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: BuffaloWeather...you have said on numerous occasions that the one winter season that you keep coming back to in the analogs is 76-77. If im not mistaken didn't that year start cold in mid October and just go full force winter right through mid February? I'm not suggesting that is what is going to happen here as that is a once in a lifetime winter, but, I do wonder if we may get into a pattern evolution that may take the form of what our winter on a whole will look like...your thoughts? https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/ny/buffalo/KBUF/date/1976-10 Around mid month it got colder and stayed cold and snowy the entire winter. It's a very rare analog. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now