dendrite Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: 74/64 for 2 days next week. Brutal. Heading home from work early today to put them back in. Looks more like all week, lots of 80s, and dews tickling 70° at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2018 Author Share Posted October 1, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Looks more like all week, lots of 80s, and dews tickling 70° at times. ACATT accounted for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: ACATT accounted for Of course we could tango with the sfc boundary like the gfs has too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 58 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks more like all week, lots of 80s, and dews tickling 70° at times. It does on this Euro run, now.. yeah... Folks were bangin' this drum and frankly, I found it irritating because it just wasn't a warm look until this run Which looking at this Euro depiction/evolution... yar, there is less 'over-top' higher pressure pearling out from southern Canada to off the Maritimes, a characteristic that absolutely would not allow a warm lower troposphere but yet one that everyone appeared to be less than aware of.. But, finally, now a model run to justify the grousing and/or celebrating, depending on one's point of view Although, I'd still caution, the models have been flip flopping between this flatter/less confluent --> weaker wedging high and farther N placement of the ambient boundary ... but considering the time range I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 After the end of next week, it does look like a pattern change. Maybe not to way BN, but we get rid of the big SE ridge for time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 How furnaced/likely is the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Exactly....somehow he's convinced himself that So New England is suppose to have hot and humid summers each year and cold and snowy winters each year. A combination of Huntsville and Houghton. LOL, It’s basically been the same thing for the past several years; it’s where the “Delusions in Seasons” expression came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: After the end of next week, it does look like a pattern change. Maybe not to way BN, but we get rid of the big SE ridge for time being. It's going to change eventually, Nino conditions gaining traction this week. That along with climo wavelength changes should start beating down the ridging later in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: 6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista That’s going to be something else come winter leading up to a storm. Are the 6z and 18z runs going to just as useful as the 00z and 12z when it comes to new data ingestion? I can’t even remember what the deal is with regards to the 6z and 18z GFS runs. Are they still considered “off runs” or was that all just some myth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Looks active late today and tonight. Should be convection across a lot of the area. Watch near and south of front as low level conditions may be favorable for a quicky spinny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 Oh those poor , poor uninstalleds up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks active late today and tonight. Should be convection across a lot of the area. Watch near and south of front as low level conditions may be favorable for a quicky spinny. Ginny up a spinny? Where will front get? Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginny up a spinny? Where will front get? Pike? Most of this will just be general tstms though. But, not bad for Oct. Front may get north of pike late today and evening. Not sure it goes as far north as guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Is next week still looking torched? If it verifies, probably sets us up for warmest Oct on record, which is disturbing considering all the other warmest months we've had this year. Really really disturbing. It's so easy to break warmth records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Is next week still looking torched? If it verifies, probably sets us up for warmest Oct on record, which is disturbing considering all the other warmest months we've had this year. Really really disturbing. It's so easy to break warmth records. Torched. That won't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: Is next week still looking torched? If it verifies, probably sets us up for warmest Oct on record, which is disturbing considering all the other warmest months we've had this year. Really really disturbing. It's so easy to break warmth records. I don't find it disturbing at all....enjoy the warm weather and don't Fret so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh those poor , poor uninstalleds up north Near 80F. How will I survive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Well, Its going to be temps of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 I'm still not entirely convinced ... The pattern in the larger synoptic scope and scale is clearly destined to be warmer than normal ... add adjectives at user discretion. However, ... ya know, today was supposed to be in the high seventies or higher for days in the models and here we are. Not two days before hand and suddenly ...oh, the boundary's destined to align through the region and collapse (typical..) to NYC, jamming us up with NE saturated mank. May as well be late April out there... Anyway, some 5 ...6 or 7 days back, the Euro had the boundary N, and everyone S of midriff VT/NH basking in warmth. The problem I have with all this is not the ridge ... The predictability for it is obviously a safe bet. The problem is the handling the flow over top - it's hard to visualize (for some perhaps...) but it's merely a present situation in the Euro or the like that they don't have an inversion/cool under cut depicted now. Moreover, we are verifying that error/plausible later correct right now, today - So we'll see I guess. It's really be secondarily aware of which way the "correction vectors" are pointing. We hare tending to correct warm mid-extended ranges cool, not the other way. If it were the latter, I might have more confidence. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Near 80F. How will I survive? LOL, we know. It sounds beautiful, but even so, swimming and AC are still fairly impractical up here in October. You can’t necessarily expect NZ tweeters and parrots to know that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: Near 80F. How will I survive? It'll feel amazing to have the windows open again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 The ACCAT that disappeared all summer and suddenly reappeared after a slight mild down are running rampant . Notice it’s mainly NNE ers too. Denying and fighting climate has changed right before them . #keepwishingforcoldinaseaofwarmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Well, Its going to be temps of yore. Locking in thermals on a 216 hr prog. Wish we could do that with such assurance when snowstorms show up in the LR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ACCAT that disappeared all summer and suddenly reappeared after a slight mild down are running rampant . Notice it’s mainly NNE ers too. Denying and fighting climate has changed right before them . #keepwishingforcoldinaseaofwarmth If the climate has changed (in a moment, in the twinkling of the eyes), then why complain. "Seasons in seasons" will now mean HHH May-October, Mild and damp November-April. Every year its the same thing. Embrace the change. Enjoy Permian II. Celebrate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Locking in thermals on a 216 hr prog. Wish we could do that with such assurance when snowstorms show up in the LR.You would be laughed at if this was showing even cold in that range as some would continue humping the WAR, Some remain in denial that fall has arrived especially when they may not see a frost until November where up here Frost/Freeze warnings have been surpassed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I don't find it disturbing at all....enjoy the warm weather and don't Fret so much. People need to accept that soon there will be no winters south of the pike, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: People need to accept that soon there will be no winters south of the pike, at all. May be even as soon as this winter as endless summer has been claimed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 First frosts have arrived past climo in one or 2 deep burbs in NNE. Snows are a coming. Put all summer attire away and keep the fires lit and heaters on. Skim ice by nightfall on ponds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ACCAT that disappeared all summer and suddenly reappeared after a slight mild down are running rampant . Notice it’s mainly NNE ers too. Denying and fighting climate has changed right before them . #keepwishingforcoldinaseaofwarmth Pump the brakes son. We’re only laughing at your suggestion that NNE needs their AC in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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