Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Yeah, I could see temps bottoming out in the "middle" of the night and going steady. I'm just thinking a 15-20° drop is more likely. I realize I'm only talking a few degrees at the low end but I think 12 is a little too conservative all things considered. You'll get a few degrees drop with sunset and with Dp's in the 20's it would be easy to drop a few more as the wind goes calm before bottoming out. Again ...if that happens.. I have seen these turn-around patterns a million times. Cold core comes through at noon to 1pm... and it's actually moving away en masse with a veering wind that same night. It'll cool off - of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Lurker boy is a massive weenie. Enjoy the mild period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: This air mass coming in is deep, with thicknesses plumbing to an unusually deep sub 525 dam in dale - which for mid October is pushing extremeness. BTV had a graphic showing the 5H trough depth was at record value for the recent 30-year climo period. Today may be the first sub-freezing High for Mansfield this season, so that's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lurker boy is a massive weenie. Enjoy the mild period. There’s one coming? Where’d this come from?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BTV had a graphic showing the 5H trough depth was at record value for the recent 30-year climo period. Today may be the first sub-freezing High for Mansfield this season, so that's a step in the right direction. I wonder if mount Washington falls below zero Wednesday night.. As of now the forecast is one degree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I wonder if mount Washington falls below zero Wednesday night.. As of now the forecast is one degree.. Yeah MWN is usually 10F colder than MMNV1 with the extra 2,000 vertical feet under normal lapse rates. It's going to be real cold on the summits that's for sure. Snowmaking weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 This is definitely cold for October. Our highs have been lowered to the mid-30s for the valley on Thursday. This is like climo temps on December 1st here. Thursday...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 My P&C is 32 for a high and 17 for a low for Thursday. Eek. Gorgeous sunset tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Just good to see mostly dry weather until the monster snows end of the month. Need to dry out in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Great song. Love JT. "Copperline", "Never Die Young" and "Sun on the Moon" are my jams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just good to see mostly dry weather until the monster snows end of the month. Need to dry out in the west. No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain. I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 7 hours ago, MetHerb said: Yeah, I could see temps bottoming out in the "middle" of the night and going steady. I'm just thinking a 15-20° drop is more likely. I realize I'm only talking a few degrees at the low end but I think 12 is a little too conservative all things considered. You'll get a few degrees drop with sunset and with Dp's in the 20's it would be easy to drop a few more as the wind goes calm before bottoming out. This doesn't appear to be a typical radiational set up, where you'll see big drops from your daytime temp. We're still cold to neutral advecting overnight, so the boundary layer may stay mixed. The one caveat is if the WAA aloft as return flow sets up can give us a quick sunrise surprise in temp drops. But for the bulk of the night it looks too mixed to really tumble off. 5 hours ago, Hoth said: Great song. Love JT. "Copperline", "Never Die Young" and "Sun on the Moon" are my jams. I'll second that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Might get some flakes tomorrow evening in spots as guidance shows some dying streamers trying to move in. Fropa arrives with a line of gusty shwrs possible in aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Yeah some big winds today and night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah some big winds today and night . Windsexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain. I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms. It’s been brutal, everyone agrees...but we’ve turned the corner, until Halloween 2.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain. I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms. This reminded me of the short story by him called "There Will Come Soft Rains". One of his more depressing ones. There is also "The Long Rain"...very depressing, as well as "All Summer in a Day"...hey...depressing! Have a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 All the ensembles are sniffing a cool to cold pattern to start November. 2002 had a warmup around the 2nd week but that was fairly short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, weathafella said: All the ensembles are sniffing a cool to cold pattern to start November. 2002 had a warmup around the 2nd week but that was fairly short lived. HOW LONG WILL THE WARMUP BE???? haha jk. I'm loving this Fall all of a sudden. I have a feeling we experience a frontloaded winter with most of the fun ending by mid-Jan, which to me is ideal. Let's see! Thanks for tolerating my emotional greenness, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 By Mid Jan???? Ok that would be a very very short lived winter if that were the case and I don't think we'd even be able to call it a Front-loaded winter if that were to happen. That would suck...hope you're wrong....which you probably are on that call. Perhaps a Jan thaw by mid Jan...but winter being over at that point...is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Not to many if any other then i guess you could say after that retro storm in 2010 that winter ended in Jan up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 That storm was in Feb...but sure in extreme cases that could happen and winter ends in Mid Jan like Lurker said. I'm not ready to go there that's for sure...that would be an extreme case for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Not to many if any other then i guess you could say after that retro storm in 2010 that winter ended in Jan up here. 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: That storm was in Feb...but sure in extreme cases that could happen and winter ends in Mid Jan like Lurker said. I'm not ready to go there that's for sure...that would be an extreme case for sure. It was in January....within a few days of New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 15 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain. I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Impressive transitory character to this new pattern ... On the rough it's like... 65 today; 40 if we're lucky tomorrow; 60 Friday/Sat; 40 Sunday ... up down up down... The northern stream tends to relax in the longer term, at which point the thickness tapestry from the NP-Lakes -OV ..NE has shed some 10 to 15 dm and no means to recover ... leaving a much more Novembery look - this whole period symbolically was a rasp to erode the last vestiges of the warm season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Impressive transitory character to this new pattern ... On the rough it's like... 65 today; 40 if we're lucky tomorrow; 60 Friday/Sat; 40 Sunday ... up down up down... The northern stream tends to relax in the longer term, at which point the thickness tapestry from the NP-Lakes -OV ..NE has shed some 10 to 15 dm and no means to recover ... leaving a much more Novembery look - this whole period symbolically was a rasp to erode the last vestiges of the warm season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: HOW LONG WILL THE WARMUP BE???? haha jk. I'm loving this Fall all of a sudden. I have a feeling we experience a frontloaded winter with most of the fun ending by mid-Jan, which to me is ideal. Let's see! Thanks for tolerating my emotional greenness, everyone! Winter will start Dec 21 and end Mar 20....don’t you worry little boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: It was in January....within a few days of New Years. Oh then I don't remember that one??? I thought he was talking about the one that came in from the East Northeast in Feb, where most in New England had rain and NYC had two feet, as well as other places in the Mid Atlantic, which was part of the Snowmageddon deal that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh then I don't remember that one??? I thought he was talking about the one that came in from the East Northeast in Feb, where most in New England had rain and NYC had two feet, as well as other places in the Mid Atlantic, which was part of the Snowmageddon deal that year. Not sure how much CT was affected by the New Years event. May not have made it that far south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not sure how much CT was affected by the New Years event. May not have made it that far south and west. Yeah we snowed in NE CT. It’s a good spot. Far enough north and east to rarely miss snows from an Eastern New England event . Just not a jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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