Coldtober model and pattern disco

[powderfreak]

Congrats Dendrite tomorrow, ha.  

Going to be a stripe of quite the heavy heavies somewhere in CNE.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Congrats Dendrite tomorrow, ha.  

Going to be a stripe of quite the heavy heavies somewhere in CNE.

If I see a qpf distribution like that this winter I'm taking my toaster in my tub.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, tamarack said:

Failed to drop below 60 this morning.  My latest 60+ minimum is Sept. 26, with 61 both last year and in 2007 (both had 84 max, too), and with the BD moving thru WVL as we speak, that mark will stand.

You aren't wrong. ORH has had 8 October events with measurable snow since 2000

That's 3 more than at my place.  I guess in October, elevation trumps latitude. 

We broke our record from 2015 with our latest 70 min on Oct 10 this year.  Also had 42 days with a dew point of 75+ which is twice our previous record- ridiculous!

 

[Cold Miser]

19 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Saturday could deliver first flakes to hills in SNE if Nam is right 

That is impossible during the month of heat and humidity.

[ORH_wxman]

19 hours ago, tamarack said:

 

You aren't wrong. ORH has had 8 October events with measurable snow since 2000

That's 3 more than at my place.  I guess in October, elevation trumps latitude. 

Some of it is pure fluke. Like I think both October 23, 2002 and October 23, 2003 were too far south for your area. You probably would have had snow in those since the lower areas around FIT also got snow in those. I think at least the first 2009 event on 10/15-16/09 was also too far south for you. Not sure if you managed anything on 10/18/09 either. I think you whiffed on that too...that was the infamous Patriots October snowstorm...they were playing the Titans at home and they were getting golfball sized parachutes early in the game that dropped a quick 2-3 inches. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of it is pure fluke. Like I think both October 23, 2002 and October 23, 2003 were too far south for your area. You probably would have had snow in those since the lower areas around FIT also got snow in those. I think at least the first 2009 event on 10/15-16/09 was also too far south for you. Not sure if you managed anything on 10/18/09 either. I think you whiffed on that too...that was the infamous Patriots October snowstorm...they were playing the Titans at home and they were getting golfball sized parachutes early in the game that dropped a quick 2-3 inches. 

The amazing October 2011 storm will probably always hold the record for October snowstorms.  For us down here, the one the next year in the first week of November, that delivered 8", was our earliest big snow event.  It was Sandy related.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of it is pure fluke. Like I think both October 23, 2002 and October 23, 2003 were too far south for your area. You probably would have had snow in those since the lower areas around FIT also got snow in those. I think at least the first 2009 event on 10/15-16/09 was also too far south for you. Not sure if you managed anything on 10/18/09 either. I think you whiffed on that too...that was the infamous Patriots October snowstorm...they were playing the Titans at home and they were getting golfball sized parachutes early in the game that dropped a quick 2-3 inches. 

Agreed on the fluke.  My place was just a bit too far NE for Octobomb's best.  I measured 4.5" while Farmington had 8.0", their largest Oct snowstorm on record.  Down at GYX they had 13" and Hartford, in the Sumner hills NW of LEW, had 14".  Hartford is quite snowy - avg 107", nearly 20% higher than my place or Farmington.  However, the GYX total, at elevation a couple yards below mine and 100' lower than Farmington, shows the flukiness.  My 5 October measurables, chronologically:

6.3"  29-30/2000   Just 2.1" at GYX
4.5"  29-30/2011
1.4"  25-26/2005
0.9"  30/2010
0.6"  23/2003
The subsequent winters averaged 96% of my 20-year average, even with the 137.1" in 00-01.   2010-11 was a frustrating winter ending with a nice dump on April Fools.  2003-04 was pretty much done with decent snow by 12/15, though the 2 big storms that month were topnotch.  The other 2 were ratters.  Not a fan of the predictive tendencies of Oct snow.

[LurkerBoy]

Looks like this Oct may end up finishing around normal. What a wild world of weather.

[Whineminster]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of it is pure fluke. Like I think both October 23, 2002 and October 23, 2003 were too far south for your area. You probably would have had snow in those since the lower areas around FIT also got snow in those. I think at least the first 2009 event on 10/15-16/09 was also too far south for you. Not sure if you managed anything on 10/18/09 either. I think you whiffed on that too...that was the infamous Patriots October snowstorm...they were playing the Titans at home and they were getting golfball sized parachutes early in the game that dropped a quick 2-3 inches. 

Is that where they blew the titans out by like 40 points?

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Is that where they blew the titans out by like 40 points?

59-0

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of it is pure fluke. Like I think both October 23, 2002 and October 23, 2003 were too far south for your area. You probably would have had snow in those since the lower areas around FIT also got snow in those. I think at least the first 2009 event on 10/15-16/09 was also too far south for you. Not sure if you managed anything on 10/18/09 either. I think you whiffed on that too...that was the infamous Patriots October snowstorm...they were playing the Titans at home and they were getting golfball sized parachutes early in the game that dropped a quick 2-3 inches. 

One of my all time favorite games attended. I remember calling BOX to let them know the transition in real time as I transitioned to less sober. 

33 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Is that where they blew the titans out by like 40 points?

59-0 

I mean if there was ever a game to get nude at.

[tamarack]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

59-0

Brady started slowly, then tossed 5 TDs in the 2nd Q.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles are pretty chilly for 11-15...so if NNE mountains don't produce any snow before then, I certainly think they will have more shots...can't rule out first flakes in the SNE favored spots too with that long wave look. 

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles are pretty chilly for 11-15...so if NNE mountains don't produce any snow before then, I certainly think they will have more shots...can't rule out first flakes in the SNE favored spots too with that long wave look. 

We lock in.  See you in April.  (I wish)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good to see the war change locations to Iceland/N ATL in the LR. Wouldn’t mind that ATL look in winter with a PNA. 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good to see the war change locations to Iceland/N ATL in the LR. Wouldn’t mind that ATL look in winter with a PNA. 

There may not be much evidence of it now ... LR operational tenors/blends, or the teleconnectors...

But such was also the case when the heat broke last February. A week of high 60s with two days mid stride of 70s to low 80s... and a week later a -NAO movement popped up in the tele's and went onto to an interesting March for eastern N/A...

It may not, but this ridge pattern reminds me, in structure, of that Feb deal and always has.  The thing is, ... terminating WAA patterns at high latitudes is often a precursor of negative polarward indexes so this ridge breaking down, plus a delivery (to mention...) of Michael's bundle ..one wouldn't be nutty to wonder if some sort of blocking evolves.  Transient ...not speaking of the whole winter... but maybe the last 10 days of the month

[alex]

First chance of snow in our P&C Friday night!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, alex said:

First chance of snow in our P&C Friday night!

Pretty much on the nose seasonally.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles are pretty chilly for 11-15...so if NNE mountains don't produce any snow before then, I certainly think they will have more shots...can't rule out first flakes in the SNE favored spots too with that long wave look. 

Next weekend, Elevations of NNE may have its first shot i think.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

One of my all time favorite games attended. I remember calling BOX to let them know the transition in real time as I transitioned to less sober. 

59-0 

I mean if there was ever a game to get nude at.

Oh man. I’m nude thinking about those conditions.

[Ginx snewx]

What happened hereNumerous Trees and wires down in Milford, Bellingam, Mendon, Northbridge, Mass. Looking for any reports and pictures from this area. #mawx

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like a chilly weekend coming up. Pats game could be pretty cold 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pretty much on the nose seasonally.

Yeah, my Facebook feed keeps reminding me of years past with snow photos from the mountain.  Mid-October is likely the average first snows for the picnic table...accumulating snow, not just flakes.  Then again all it takes is a good orographic snow squall or two to put down a couple inches quickly.  That seems to be how it happens, not in a synoptic type event.

[J.Spin]

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, my Facebook feed keeps reminding me of years past with snow photos from the mountain.  Mid-October is likely the average first snows for the picnic table...accumulating snow, not just flakes.  Then again all it takes is a good orographic snow squall or two to put down a couple inches quickly.  That seems to be how it happens, not in a synoptic type event.

The orographics around here definitely help those first snows to happen earlier and more frequently – the chance of October snow on Mansfield seems to run at about 90%, and it’s common to have multiple snow events each October, not just one (for example, Oct 2017 had three, Oct 2016 had two, Oct 2015 had two, Oct 2014 had four, etc.)

I know you’d commented that seeing mention of flakes in the forecast didn’t mean much, but what I’m seeing in our point forecast is definitely more than the usual first hints – starting Monday night, flakes are in our valley forecast for the next six periods, right through Thursday.  We’ll see if that changes of course, but typically we’ll get mention of snow just in the mountain forecasts, and we’ll get those first flakes in the mountain valleys thanks to squalls combining with orographics helping to bring the snow levels way down along the spine.

I haven’t looked into the Mansfield data to pull out the numbers, but for here in the valley our mean date for first frozen/trace is October 20^th, and for accumulation it’s October 27^th.  The mean first accumulating snow for Mansfield is probably in that mid-October range like you suggest.

[ineedsnow]

Signals starting to pop up for a pretty big storm in about 12 to 14 days.. GEFS really like it.. way out but worth watching I guess..

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

What happened hereNumerous Trees and wires down in Milford, Bellingam, Mendon, Northbridge, Mass. Looking for any reports and pictures from this area. #mawx

I was looking at RadarScope around 3:45 or so.  Heavy rain in my area, but an interesting signature in that area around that time.  No warning boxes were up.

Squall perhaps

[ORH_wxman]

May need to watch for a few rogue mangled flakes tomorrow morning around WaWa, Monads and Berkshires. I'll bet Mitch prob sees some in S VT at 2400+ feet. 12z NAM soundings have wetbulb 0 heights hovering near 925mb....that's going to produce some flakes above 2k if the precip is there. Lapse rates are steep so the SGZ is well saturated.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

May need to watch for a few rogue mangled flakes tomorrow morning around WaWa, Monads and Berkshires. I'll bet Mitch prob sees some in S VT at 2400+ feet. 12z NAM soundings have wetbulb 0 heights hovering near 925mb....that's going to produce some flakes above 2k if the precip is there. Lapse rates are steep so the SGZ is well saturated.

We mentioned this a few days ago 

[Weatherexpert]

TORCHtober? Not sure if I would go all the way to call it a torch but it has been warmer than the usual although climate change has brought about a different fall.

for any of you affected by hurricane Michael (either mentally or physically). Please message me your phone number of add me on facebook and I can provide you with survival instructions as well as ways to protect your home. Additionally, Michael will be deflected out to sea. So it is not a major event but may bring back ptsd for some.

as far as this week looks like rain may be subsiding next week, humidity cooling off... 

[CoastalWx]

Defintely a much more Nino look in longer range. Classic cold season cyclogenesis looks (doesn’t have to mean snow).