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Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland
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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was for next week mainly . We’ll see how it plays out.

Not trying to be a stalker here....and I’m not trying to bust your chops, but this post is not true, and a twist of the facts. 

Last week at this time...you posted about how low to mid 80’s and beastly dews/heat for these days we are in now, was coming.  That has not verified.  And when Some of us said we didn’t believe it would get near the levels you were touting, you got a lil put out, and posted tweets of METS saying it would be so, and talked about endless summer.  

The only point here is...just admit that your call for this week was not correct...and the models from last week that you were going by, were overblown...that’s all. 

 

And i agree...we’ll see how next week plays out, but this week flopped for beastly heat.  And it wouldn’t surprise me if next week isn’t as impressive as it once looked...but we’ll see??? 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Not trying to be a stalker here....and I’m not trying to bust your chops, but this post is not true, and a twist of the facts. 

Last week at this time...you posted about how low to mid 80’s and beastly dews/heat for these days we are in now, was coming.  That has not verified.  And when Some of us said we didn’t believe it would get near the levels you were touting, you got a lil put out, and posted tweets of METS saying it would be so, and talked about endless summer.  

The only point here is...just admit that your call for this week was not correct...and the models from last week that you were going by, were overblown...that’s all. 

Many places could be at +10 to +12 by mid-month. That's as off the charts as you could get. 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man , next week trended even warmer and longer with the warmth and humidity on overnight runs

I don't know where you're getting the longer part from.  It still looks like a switch to cooler weather the 13/14th, although the GFS is showing a 17.7°C 850 on the 13th.  That's followed by a -6.3°C on the 17th.  We'll see how it plays out.  We've been here before. 

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5 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I don't know where you're getting the longer part from.  It still looks like a switch to cooler weather the 13/14th, although the GFS is showing a 17.7°C 850 on the 13th.  That's followed by a -6.3°C on the 17th.  We'll see how it plays out.  We've been here before. 

I said next week. Also .. check out EPS

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Many places could be at +10 to +12 by mid-month. That's as off the charts as you could get. 

I’ll believe it when I see it...just like this week was supposed to be mid 80’s...Fail on that one. And as Metherb said...due to overnights being milder..not daytime highs.  I’ll take the under on those +10 and +12 departures by the end of next week!

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Definitely feels like fall this morning with mid 40s and some wind.

Yeah we just hit 33F, sneaky chill this morning.  Tomorrow should be a hard freeze.

The bottom dropped out quickly early this morning.  There's a PWS next to MVL that was 50F at mightnight and 33F by 6:30am.  That's the largest drop I can find.  The one closest to me was 47F to 33F.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Near or around 80 for 2-3 days....maybe warmer where you are Lurker??  Enjoy it, it's going to be nice.  End of next week it cools down again.  

The end is near. One more war push then it’s fall. That is, until it returns in Dec when we watch the midwest get buried while we do yardwork. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we just hit 33F, sneaky chill this morning.  Tomorrow should be a hard freeze.

The bottom dropped out quickly early this morning.  There's a PWS next to MVL that was 50F at mightnight and 33F by 6:30am.  That's the largest drop I can find.  The one closest to me was 47F to 33F.

I land at BTV at noon. Think I’ll be shivering in my shorts when I get off the plane? :shiver:

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Looking ahead to next week, Warm front looks to struggle to get here, We may tickle a day or two in the 70's , But that looks about it.

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a Freeze Warning,
which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* Temperatures...Near 30.

* Timing...Overnight Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Impacts...Freezing conditions will kill sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.
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47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In SNH?

Well I'm technically in the southern half. It'll be near normal for the first 7 days up here. CON-south maybe a little warmer. Nothing too cold or too hot for this time of year.

Hopefully next week is warmer and sunnier. MEX is kinda meh for up here. Get that sfc boundary way up into QB please.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KLCI   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/05/2018  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  62| 40  66| 52  71| 54  63| 52  64| 60  70| 54  66| 55  67 40 59
 TMP  49| 43  58| 58  62| 55  56| 56  59| 63  62| 57  58| 57  57      
 DPT  35| 38  47| 56  60| 50  49| 51  55| 58  56| 54  52| 50  48      
 CLD  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL      
 WND   7|  2   8|  6   6|  5   5|  5   6|  4   7|  8   6|  4   8      
 P12   0|  2   8| 15  33| 23  25| 55  50| 42  40| 45  36| 20  18999999
 P24    |      8|     37|     25|     77|     56|     68|     27   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  1   1|  1    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      2|      1|       |             
 T12   5|  1   2|  4   5|  0   0|  3   2| 11  12|  4   6|  2   1      
 T24    | 10    |  4    |  7    |  3    | 12    | 15    |  9          
 PZP   1|  0   0|  2   0|  0   1|  0   0|  2   2|  4   0|  0   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  0   0      
 PRS   1|  0   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   1|  0   1|  2   1|  1   0      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
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