Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Record snowfall in parts of Alberta, Canada. I read in the climate change forum about the extreme warmth in the Arctic. Seems as though it's colder than normal across the Canadian Plains. Perhaps they are connected.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4846725

 

 

Coworker of mine is from there. She showed me a pic from her parents' place yesterday. Looked like a solid foot. Winter is coming.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The contingent of folks who pi$$ and moan about Kev incessantly are far more inimical to the welfare of the forum than he ever will be.

Just in case people are not in the know:

in·im·i·cal
iˈnimək(ə)l/
adjective
 
  1. tending to obstruct or harm.
    "actions inimical to our interests"
    synonyms: harmful, injurious, detrimental, deleterious, prejudicial, damaging, hurtful, destructive, ruinous, pernicious; More
     
     
     
     
     
    • unfriendly; hostile.
      "an inimical alien power"
      synonyms: harmful, injurious, detrimental, deleterious, prejudicial, damaging, hurtful, destructive, ruinous, pernicious; More
    •  
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could be a sizable sensible weather change today into tomorrow, ...then back the other way...  Yo yo'in

But it's in the mid 80s in southern Lower Michigan right now and typically there's a 24-hour teleconnector for SNE ...  Then we roll yet another in an endless series of high pressures over-top into SE Canada for the next day and that'll whack 25 off ... 

In fact, the NAM is atrocious ... has thickness of 565 dm ..yet, holds the temp to 46 or so at Logan ?  I'm wondering where it's getting that much cold from.. Either way, if that sets up... that would have to be one of the most negatively sloped soundings ever

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Holy mosis what a deep bomb is being modeled to strike eastern Canada at high latitudes...  

Tip, the GFS might be showing signs of a change to colder than normal temperatures as a semblance of a +PNA is developing with an eastern CONUS trough developing with teleconnections of a -AO towards mid October

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

You long-time posters treat this forum like it's your little comedy open-mic night, with only some members regularly posting good information or responding to questions or guiding rather than patronizing. 

The reason silly questions are asked a lot is because they're not being answered fundamentally in the thread of convo that should be happening!

We do both, actually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

I visit way the board much less often than I used to simply because it's the same tiresome banter of hyperbolic posts, usually generated by DIT.  It's like listening to siblings bicker incessantly.   At some point, you leave the room.   My absence isn't a problem for the community as I rarely contribute beyond posting rain/snow totals, but perhaps there are members who visit less frequently, too, and that might mean a drop in ad revenue that helps keep the site running.

I'll remember that the next time I am utilizing an incessant chain of texts as a "forum" because the traffic leading up to major event has crashed the server-

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

People who gripe about too much banter or posts lacking substance have point if it's occurring in threads like this. We have a banter thread for a reason. 

Its about time to clean it up in prep for the winter when traffic really increases. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will do everything I can to lose my weenie tag and eventually add something to the forum. Sorry for being emotional. I love weather, and I love fall and winter, and when something you love doesn't seem like it's coming, it affects you. Sorry again. 

 

Looks like by the end of next week, we go into a more Autumn-like pattern. The torchiness modeled for Sunday-Wed looks pretty consistent...probably mid-upper 70s for 4 or 5 days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think it is going to be interesting to see how things go next week for temps. Clearly this week has been cooler than what the models predicted it was going to be.

I warned everyone it would be , too - 

It's also why I'm not completely sold on the 'extremeness' of the warm up for next week - warm up?  mmm, okay. 

The difference here is that there ridge is more coherent in the runs.  Agreed.   Also, there are cycles of model runs, ...sort of like last night's 00z, that show a bit more N placement of the front and less lower level invasion of high pressure undercutting said ridge.   Other cycles have shown more of that undercut.  ..back and forth.  But, back and forth is more of a warm signal than that which led this week, which showed warm heights, but the actual surface pressure pattern was clearly draping early season polar highs immediately adjacent our latitudes to the N. It wasn't being considered enough by anyone.

So, there's some plausibility there for next week's warm up that cannot be denied.  However, I wouldn't be surprised either if there are N and/or BD type fronts persecuting SNE with cold seclusion while the 'pattern' around is way above normal looking.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I warned everyone it would be , too - 

It's also why I'm not completely sold on the 'extremeness' of the warm up for next week - warm up?  mmm, okay. 

The difference here is that there ridge is more coherent in the runs.  Agreed.   Also, there are cycles of model runs, ...sort of like last night's 00z, that show a bit more N placement of the front and less lower level invasion of high pressure undercutting said ridge.   Other cycles have shown more of that.  So, there's some plausibility there that cannot be denied.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if there are N and/or BD type fronts persecuting SNE with cold seclusion while the 'pattern' is way above normal.  

 

Hey Tip,

As a n00b, when would these intuitions of yours start showing up on models? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...