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October 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Man the overnight low at ORD is going to be obscene for October (might not drop below like 73), but it will go for naught since it won't hold all day.

ORD dropped to 70 at 7:00 AM, now up to 72 before the plunge begins tonight. 

The max/min yesterday was 85/70, crazy for October 9. The low of 70 set a new max low temp for the date, and the 2nd latest 70+ min on record. 

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That Friday system that was talked about earlier looks like it could be just cold enough to potentially mix in some snow, especially if the ECMWF and NAM are right (they drop freezing levels around 1500 feet).  Still some differences with northward extent of precip, but some places in the IA/IL/IN area might see their first flakes.

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3 hours ago, XfireLOW said:

...and even more contrast further nw with 18" of snowfall in eastern ND.

Very impressive. :snowing:

39 with a wind chill of 30 atm, which is the coldest of the season so far.  Should have a hard time getting out of the 40s, which will be about 35 degrees cooler than Mon-Tue.  

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LOT afd on tomorrow

Of note with this precipitation and the antecedent dry air is
potential for strong evaporative top down cooling shown on the
12km NAM and 3km NAMNest soundings, with a brief period of wet
snow mixing in not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
However, with other guidance warmer and the stronger evaporative
cooling tied to likely heavier precip rates, kept p-type as all
light rain. Regarding high temperatures, they should be in the
lower to mid 40s area wide given the chilly air mass and overcast.

Castro
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56 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Really hoping this blast of fall air can accelerate the fall foliage around here, everything is still pretty green. 

 

NAM had tried to illustrate the possibility of our first snowflakes tomorrow. Lol. Either way frost warning tonight, we are getting closer folks.

I'd rather it be warm but I'm rooting for snow tomorrow... I can only remember one time where I went less than 6 months between last snow and first snow.  This would make it since my last flakes came on April 19.

Looks like the northern edge of the precip shield will be somewhere around here, and as the LOT afd mentioned, it may take steadier precip rates to mix/change to snow.  Although sfc temps are warm, the models have 925 mb temps just below 0C so I think this has a reasonable chance of happening especially where the precip intensity is a little better.

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46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd rather it be warm but I'm rooting for snow tomorrow... I can only remember one time where I went less than 6 months between last snow and first snow.  This would make it since my last flakes came on April 19.

Looks like the northern edge of the precip shield will be somewhere around here, and as the LOT afd mentioned, it may take steadier precip rates to mix/change to snow.  Although sfc temps are warm, the models have 925 mb temps just below 0C so I think this has a reasonable chance of happening especially where the precip intensity is a little better.

I’m ready for cooler weather, but the first snowflakes might be a little early lol. Although, I do remember sometime in the 3rd week of October 2013 we had flakes flying in the air. Really looking back 2013 was just an incredible weather year. So many extreme events. 

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Watching the trends on this evening's HRRR and RAP runs, they tend to mix in/change to snow in Iowa, but then the precip turns to all rain by midday/afternoon with eastward extent into IL/IN.  It's barely mid October, so that doesn't seem too crazy???

I have an issue though.  When you look at forecast soundings in the precip area, they have dry adiabatic lapse rates from about 925 mb to the surface with even a superadiabatic layer near the surface. That would not be surprising in sunny weather, but it looks pretty unrealistic with clouds/precip and with no marine influences.  

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Looked outside and the deck has a light coating of snow... just a skiff, but rain/snow seem fairly reg in the extended. I’d love an Indian summer before the snow comes.

Same here, it always hurts when I put the Hammock away for the winter. Once mid November comes bring on the snow and cold. 

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Watching the trends on this evening's HRRR and RAP runs, they tend to mix in/change to snow in Iowa, but then the precip turns to all rain by midday/afternoon with eastward extent into IL/IN.  It's barely mid October, so that doesn't seem too crazy???

I have an issue though.  When you look at forecast soundings in the precip area, they have dry adiabatic lapse rates from about 925 mb to the surface with even a superadiabatic layer near the surface. That would not be surprising in sunny weather, but it looks pretty unrealistic with clouds/precip and with no marine influences.  

Yeah the superadiabatic layer wouldn't make sense.  With dews near or below freezing temps should crash pretty quickly with any precip that makes it to the surface.  The RGEM seems to handle precip types well, and keeps the snow longer than some of the other guidance tomorrow.  I'm expecting to see some wet flakes here around late morning, or early afternoon.

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30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the superadiabatic layer wouldn't make sense.  With dews near or below freezing temps should crash pretty quickly with any precip that makes it to the surface.  The RGEM seems to handle precip types well, and keeps the snow longer than some of the other guidance tomorrow.  I'm expecting to see some wet flakes here around late morning, or early afternoon.

I kind of feel like the model temps should be taken with a grain of salt in these situations, especially since we are just talking flakes vs. no flakes and not accumulations.  I'm much more interested in the temps just off the deck.  Anybody that is able to stay a degree or two below freezing at 925 mb should be able to mix in some snow.

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