Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

October 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

Looks like another round of very strong winds on Sunday for eastern Iowa and western IL.  Somewhat similar setup to last Saturday's setup with the wind profiles.  The difference this time will be more cloudiness, so mixing may not be quite as efficient.  Also won't have the intense precip squalls to mix down even higher momentum air like what happened over northeast IL and IN.  Forecast soundings out this way show mixing to between 900 and 850mb.  Some soundings off the latest 3km NAM show over 50kts at the top of the mixing layer just west of the main cloud shield over eastern IA around 18z.  Last Sat the 3km underplayed winds in the 850mb layer while the HRRR forecast winds 5-10kts higher in that layer.  The HRRR ended up being correct, so I'll be curious to see what the forecast sounding look like from the HRRR as we get closer.  At this point it looks like 40-45mph gusts are a lock for the DVN area (especially on Iowa side), but 50mph+ gust potential is there just to the west of where the western edge of the cloud shield sets up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at this morning's latest guidance, it's looking like a period of high wind warning level winds will occur about 50 miles either side of a line from Mankato MN to Springfield IL.  50-60kts at the top of the mixing layer showing up on various soundings along that corridor as the speed max at 850mb races southeastward.  Looks like a good chance at 55-60mph gusts for a few hours along that line, which will be just to the west of the thicker clouds.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty much concur with your thoughts, cyclone.  Should not be a problem realizing gusts near/into warning criteria in the corridor you mentioned.  Looks like the GFS gets stronger winds farther north but we'll have to see.  Like you, I will be curious to see the HRRR.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty much concur with your thoughts, cyclone.  Should not be a problem realizing gusts near/into warning criteria in the corridor you mentioned.  Looks like the GFS gets stronger winds farther north but we'll have to see.  Like you, I will be curious to see the HRRR.  

Yeah interestingly the GFS shows the punch at 850mb quite a bit further northeast than the NAM/HRRR.  Also keeps the edge of the cloud shield further northeast as well.  GFS soundings show mixing all the way to 800mb in the sunshine, and taps into 50-55kt flow.  

The MSP discussion mentions a max of 45mph gusts in the favored corridor in their cwa, but they will likely see 55-60+ in a portion of their western and southern CWA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not much else to talk about, so might as well keep talking about the wind potential lol.  Latest HRRR continues to look impressive, and actually has things a bit further east than various guidance had been showing the past few days.  Western edge of the cloud shield is about 50-100 miles further east than some earlier runs, and hence the higher wind potential has moved a bit east with it.  Latest HRRR soundings are showing better mixing as well, up to near 850mb in some cases.  Winds of 50kts are showing up as low as 900mb, so with 50-55kts at the upper mixing range it certainly looks like 50-60mph winds are going to happen.  It now looks like this setup is nearly identical to the placement of last Saturday's event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not much else to talk about, so might as well keep talking about the wind potential lol.  Latest HRRR continues to look impressive, and actually has things a bit further east than various guidance had been showing the past few days.  Western edge of the cloud shield is about 50-100 miles further east than some earlier runs, and hence the higher wind potential has moved a bit east with it.  Latest HRRR soundings are showing better mixing as well, up to near 850mb in some cases.  Winds of 50kts are showing up as low as 900mb, so with 50-55kts at the upper mixing range it certainly looks like 50-60mph winds are going to happen.  It now looks like this setup is nearly identical to the placement of last Saturday's event.

Woke up to a wind advisory this morning for EC Illinois. I truly hope it’s not like last weekend. I recently moved out into the fields of Kankakee County and that wind last week did a number on my property. Gate blew off, large branches down everywhere, raining corn stalks, lost power for 13 hours. A fun watch but a messy clean up


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The western edge of the clouds is from Waterloo to the Quad Cities, and that's where the highest gusts have been so far.

Waterloo: 52 mph

Cedar Rapids: 49 mph

Iowa City: 53 mph

Davenport: 49 mph

A little further southwest than what the HRRR was showing last night.  Cutting down on mixing a bit over the western edge of the cloud shield.  Moline is gusting to 51mph now.  Overall not as impressive of an event as I was thinking yesterday, but after last Saturday's winds anything less than that will seem pretty meh lol.  I'm guessing the mixing was a bit overdone on the guidance, or winds aren't quite as strong as modeled in the 900-850mb layer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most places ended up between a few tenths of a degree above or below average. So essentially it is going to be considered widespread an average October temperature wise. Obviously that could not be further from the truth. The first 3rd of the month was basically August at the last 2/3 of the month was basically November 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...