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October 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It will probably rebound right away if the last 6 months are any indication lol

You know it. I would rather have the NAO slightly negative later on in the season, the thread the needle nonsense right now usually misses here anyways.

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35 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

 After a month of fog, rain, snow, and FOG (!), beautiful blue skies all day long.  Even with the breeze, the high of 57 felt warm enough for only a t-shirt. Wasn't sure there was gonna be another day this nice, so I enjoyed it even more.

Wow warmer than down here. High was 53° after a low in the 20s almost everywhere except 30° at DTW. Clear blue sky. With this being the 2nd official freeze at Detroit, with more in outlying areas, the growing season is most certainly done, after we were suffering in heat less than 2 weeks ago lol

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Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday.  Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas.  If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event.  Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though.  Something to keep an eye on.

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On Wednesday it was one of those days where the weather changed every 5 minutes with all types of precip. cycling through. A few times some heavy graupel showers would come with some of them being the largest I've seen. Awesome blue hues near sunset that are incredibly rare around here.

The forecast for yesterday and today was mixed up, it was suppose to be sunny with few clouds this afternoon and in the mid to upper 50s but we only had sun at noon and now its overcast. Getting colder too. I don't check my local wx daily anymore because they can't even get the next 12 hours straight.

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21 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday.  Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas.  If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event.  Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though.  Something to keep an eye on.

Latest DVN forecast downplayed the winds a bit compared to the morning crew.  They bumped wind gusts from 45mph down to 40mph.  Always interesting to see the battle between the different shifts as everyone has different opinions.  I feel the previous forecast was more on target, and in fact I think there's 50+mph gust potential, and a wind advisory should likely be needed.  Latest HRRR has over 50kts now down below 850mb, which is significant as mixing should reach to near 800mb if the forecast soundings are correct.  That would imply warning criteria is a possibility for a short time.  

EDIT:  Just saw a wind advisory was posted for the northwestern DVN area.  That will need to be expanded for the rest of the cwa eventually.

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On 10/18/2018 at 11:42 PM, cyclone77 said:

Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday.  Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas.  If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event.  Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though.  Something to keep an eye on.

Lows in southeast Michigan ranged from the low 20s in outlying areas to the warm spot of 30゚ at DTW on Thursday. The 1st official freeze was 2 days prior to that. We went from summer like heat to growing season ending cold in a week 

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