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October 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Picked up 0.06" of rain this evening.  Some light rain falling at the moment with a temp of 38.  Should get a brief period of wet snow at the tail-end of the departing precip shield in the next few hours.  We warmed to 50 earlier, and held in the mid to upper 40s until a few hours ago when CAA began to knock us back.  Forecast soundings showed above freezing temps up to around 850mb earlier, so the process of cooling the column is taking longer this far east compared to areas further west.  Looks like it will cool enough just in time before the precip departs.

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Huge snowflakes falling now mixed in with the rain.  Temp has dropped to 35.  Nice bright banding overhead on the radar.  2nd snow of the season and it's only October 15.  Not too shabby!

EDIT:  Snow is actually sticking on grassy and elevated surfaces with the temp now down to 33.  This will be the first accumulating snow of the season.

EDIT2:  Looks like about 1/3" so far.  Now all snow, but flakes much smaller but pouring down.

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Dang, we may need to start a LES thread already:

THEREAFTER SOME BRIEF RELAXATION EXPECTED IN MEAN TROUGHING THROUGH 
ERN CANADA BEFORE BUCKLING STRONGLY LATE PERIOD AS A FORMIDABLE 
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INVOF JAMES BAY. THIS IN TURN LOOKS TO SHUNT AN EVEN 
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES SIGNALING THE FIRST LAKE 
EFFECT DERIVED PRECIP EVENT OF THE SEASON LATE SAT INTO SUN. 
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15 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Dang, we may need to start a LES thread already:


THEREAFTER SOME BRIEF RELAXATION EXPECTED IN MEAN TROUGHING THROUGH 
ERN CANADA BEFORE BUCKLING STRONGLY LATE PERIOD AS A FORMIDABLE 
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INVOF JAMES BAY. THIS IN TURN LOOKS TO SHUNT AN EVEN 
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES SIGNALING THE FIRST LAKE 
EFFECT DERIVED PRECIP EVENT OF THE SEASON LATE SAT INTO SUN. 

Yup. Actually included flakes in my 7 day Sat night/Sun AM because the signal has been there for a while. Wouldn't be surprised to see flakes well inland at times!

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Some interesting weather going on in NA.  Fairbanks, AK has yet to see any flakes this season so far...it's the latest on record without a T of snow.  I believe the prior record was October 8th or 9th.

Also, from another forum:

Very impressive to see DFW have their first high temperature below 50 of the fall before NYC.  A -30 high temperature departure this time of year is pretty extreme.

A new record low maximum temperature of 49 degrees was also set. (The previous record was 60 degrees in 1923.) This is the earliest in the season for a high temperature in the 40s. (The previous record was October 22, 1936.) 

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On 10/15/2018 at 12:03 PM, Hoosier said:

I think I might tune out until the last few days of the month lol.  That looks like the next significant synoptic system.  Could be us or east coast.

Daddy likes

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.thumb.png.d1323b9fe50c8a1fb3dfb53a8395f816.png

NAO is progged to plunge negative in the final week too, which is something that has had a hard time happening in seemingly forever.

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