Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The main question is when the developing El Nino finally begins to influence the 500 mb pattern. This month so far is a very warm La Nina composite like we saw last year. But the pattern flipped cooler last November and December matching La Nina climo timing. A shift to El Nino this year could be milder due to the warmer El Nino composites for November and December. 

IMG_0259.GIF.c14a5aea60fbf1cebb03d017468b1c60.GIF

IMG_0260.GIF.292352c942b4f437d81c992a27330eb6.GIF

October has started with a 500 mb pattern that features a ridge in the east and trough in the west in a fashion that is not dissimilar to October 2002. By the third week of October, a trough developed in the East.

However, the current emerging El Niño event is weaker than the 2002-03 ENSO event was at this stage. It wouldn't surprise me if attempts by thr trough to shift into the East meet resistance from the seemingly ever-present western Atlantic ridge. If so, troughs in the East could prove to be transient through the remainder of the month.

Overall, October still remains well on course to be warmer than normal in the East, especially over the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday's rainfall in New York City was 0.69". Total precipitation for 2018 is now 48.52". That ranks 2018 as the 43rd wettest year, just behind 1969 when 48.54" precipitation fell.

Bridgeport picked up 2.83".

Another 2 plus here , over 58 inches for the year 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

October has started with a 500 mb pattern that features a ridge in the east and trough in the west in a fashion that is not dissimilar to October 2002. By the third week of October, a trough developed in the East.

However, the current emerging El Niño event is weaker than the 2002-03 ENSO event was at this stage. It wouldn't surprise me if attempts by thr trough to shift into the East meet resistance from the seemingly ever-present western Atlantic ridge. If so, troughs in the East could prove to be transient through the remainder of the month.

Overall, October still remains well on course to be warmer than normal in the East, especially over the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

It's interesting how the week 2 guidance continues to underestimate the staying power of the WAR pattern. The week 2 range EPS for the current period  was pretty bad. The magnitude of the error was probably compounded by the active MJO 8-1.

EPS forecast

IMG_0263.thumb.JPG.b91ade5004308dbb904e3d5712f0ef9f.JPG

Verification

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_us_1.thumb.png.abc99bf68daa402115b0e9be07cf2d6e.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_2.thumb.png.7487380aa845ca110f4fc861140883fd.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

going to be some ridiculous postive deparatures by 10/15

The RWTT still does not show a BN period till the second week of Nov.    We will be lucky to get two BN days through the 18th. on the most optimistic output intrepretation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Way out in the long range at this point, but look for a tropical threat in about two weeks up this way. System develops near the FL Keys and comes up through the FL panhandle after merging with a trough, riding the front up the coast. An alternative scenario is that it develops further East over the Bahamas and then comes North.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It's interesting how the week 2 guidance continues to underestimate the staying power of the WAR pattern. The week 2 range EPS for the current period  was pretty bad. The magnitude of the error was probably compounded by the active MJO 8-1.

EPS forecast

 

Verification

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see if the WAR pattern continues to wind up stronger than predicted in the extended range. Certainly, the MJO progression helped. The Atlantic SSTAs may also be contributing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Early October was supposed to be cold too. Unless it’s within 5 days it’s fantasy

This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240.

 

That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240.

 

That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up.

Reminds me of the winter of 01-02 and 11-12 the cold air was always 10 days away-hope that's not a bad sign for this year....

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240.

 

That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up.

68/50 is normal for this time of year, by the 12 it is 64/47. A step down is natural.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Continuing the theme of the minimum departures running higher than the maximums.

TEMPERATURE (F)...LGA
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         77    154 PM  85    2000  70      7      
  MINIMUM         67    556 AM  40    1974  56     11       
  AVERAGE         72                        63      9       
TEMPERATURE (F)...ISP
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         77    155 PM  80    2002  68      9      
                                      2000
  MINIMUM         64    638 AM  34    2003  50     14       
  AVERAGE         71                        59     12       
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...