doncat Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with 99% of the leaves still green Much like last year with the warm Oct...Was followed around Nov 10th with record early season cold, which took care of the remaining foliage quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, doncat said: Much like last year with the warm Oct...Was followed around Nov 10th with record early season cold, which took care of the remaining foliage quickly. I had frozen green leaves on the trees-an odd sight for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tor warning just north of KPOU Tornado Warning Tornado Warning NYC027-021900- /O.NEW.KALY.TO.W.0008.181002T1841Z-181002T1900Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 241 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Dutchess County in east central New York... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Pleasant Valley, or near Poughkeepsie, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Pleasant Valley around 245 PM EDT. Millbrook and Stanfordville around 300 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Littlerest, Salt Point, Norrie Heights, McIntyre, Market, Netherwood, Millbrook Heights, Haviland, Stissing and South Millbrook. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report hail size...damaging winds and reports of trees down to the National Weather Service by email at [email protected]... On Facebook at www.facebook.com/nwsalbany or twitter @nwsalbany && LAT...LON 4174 7392 4184 7393 4192 7365 4174 7363 TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 263DEG 26KT 4178 7386 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ Frugis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Some very interesting looking storms in western PA right now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 1512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...Southeast New York...Southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021910Z - 022115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A wind damage threat and marginal tornado threat will be possible this afternoon from northern New Jersey northeastward into southern New England. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out across the region. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a warm front located from southeast New York extending eastward across Connecticut. Convection is developing near the boundary in southeast New York along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of the convection, surface dewpoints in the New York Vicinity and in far southern New England are generally in the mid to upper 60s F which is contributing to the development of weak instability. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Boston and New York City have moderate to strong deep-layer shear with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This may be enough for a marginal tornado threat with cells that interact with the warm front. Wind damage will also be possible but the threat should remain isolated due to the weak instability. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/02/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 No tornado in that warned cell... I checked. Fun to be chasing in October though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 looks to be a rather wet evening for the metro. guidance hinting at overrunning cells after a bow of sorts transitions through, so i think we'll see some flash flooding in areas, mostly during the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1512.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: No tornado in that warned cell... I checked. Fun to be chasing in October though. and for a cloudy and not so warm day in our neck of the woods too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Meh. Line looks pretty thin. Doubt we'll get anything more than a few sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 That looks really big by regional standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Multiple tornado warnings now in PA Shear and SBCAPE are about the same here as it is there so look for the threat to spread East into our area as time goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Not often we see these types of numbers in the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Another crappy job by SPC with respect to a northeastern tor outbreak. I mean, its not the plains or Dixie Alley, but they can't just use parameters developed 1500 miles away and apply them up here and call it a day. They do amazing work in the core severe regions but it really falls off up here - I almost wonder if local offices couldn't do a better job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: Another crappy job by SPC with respect to a northeastern tor outbreak. I mean, its not the plains or Dixie Alley, but they can't just use parameters developed 1500 miles away and apply them up here and call it a day. They do amazing work in the core severe regions but it really falls off up here - I almost wonder if local offices couldn't do a better job. I've always wondered about this. The few moderate days we get usually disappoint and the worst outbreaks I can remember have come on slight risk days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I've always wondered about this. The few moderate days we get usually disappoint and the worst outbreaks I can remember have come on slight risk days. It's just not their strength. I count 6 ongoing supercells with tight LL rotation, and the watch was issued after the first tornado was already on the ground. C+ job by SPC. Someone could do a nice masters thesis developing a parameter driven index like SigTor that's tuned for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 The cell about to cross the Hudson around Peekskill looks a bit threatening. Pretty much any updraft near the front that can maintain itself is eventually spinning up a low level meso. Lots and lots of storm relative helicity to work with, and just enough bulk shear to permit sustained updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Finally, and sorry for the post-burst, but I am slammed at work and hadn't been following this at all. I didn't even look at the radar / forecast until I looked out a conference room window at about 245PM and saw obvious, visible, low-level shear and increasingly deep convective clouds. I thought "huh, this looks tornado-ish" and pulled up radarscope. Eyeballs on the ground had a better lead time than SPC. Forecast fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Peekskill storm now TOR warned. Seems a bit early for that, but given how the storms have evolved upstream, I can see why they want to get ahead of it. FWIW, the earlier Millbrook spinner had a brief CC drop/TDS associated with it; wouldn't surprise me if there was an weak tornado sucking some leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Could hear the thunder all the way down here from the Peekskill storm. Even got a five minute burst of rain out of it as it slid by to my North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 BGM and State College are not ahead of the outbreak. There are multiple SVR warned storms with tight couplets, and LCLs are super low. PA is a ****show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I've always wondered about this. The few moderate days we get usually disappoint and the worst outbreaks I can remember have come on slight risk days. I think the reason for that is simply because there are way way more slight risk days than moderate risk days. Although moderate risk days have a much higher probability of severe weather than slight risk days comparatively speaking, the probability on those moderate risk days is still not terribly high in absolute terms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think the reason for that is simply because there are way way more slight risk days than moderate risk days. Although moderate risk days have a much higher probability of severe weather than slight risk days comparatively speaking, the probability on those moderate risk days is still not terribly high in absolute terms. I disagree. While F3 or stronger tornado in the NE tend to happen on plains-style days with an EML and good lapse rates, weaker tornados are more frequent (duh), correlate with late season warm front events, and are often missed by SPC. This is what they're screwing up. Today is particularly bad because we have both a warm front and decent lapse rates. It's like they forget that in August-October, you often lose the marine layer and warm fronts need to be watched like a hawk for surface-rooted convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Ruh roh. Was that a CC drop with the couplet near Ossining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 431 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 NYC087-119-022045- /O.CON.KOKX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-181002T2045Z/ Westchester NY-Rockland NY- 431 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN WESTCHESTER AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES... At 431 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Haverstraw, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Peekskill, Stony Point, West Haverstraw, Croton-on-Hudson, Mount Ivy, Thiells and Buchanan. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4119 7384 4119 7403 4124 7403 4129 7395 4132 7385 TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 273DEG 15KT 4123 7392 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tornado Warning NYC119-022115- /O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0006.181002T2043Z-181002T2115Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service New York NY 443 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Westchester County in southeastern New York... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 443 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Yorktown Heights, or near Mount Kisco, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mount Kisco around 455 PM EDT. Bedford around 505 PM EDT. Greenwich around 510 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 4131 7355 4118 7356 4111 7370 4113 7389 4115 7389 4116 7391 4119 7392 4131 7390 TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 275DEG 19KT 4122 7382 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tornado touchdown in westchester co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 TORNADO WATCH 394 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-005-030400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0394.181002T2055Z-181003T0400Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 TORNADO WATCH 394 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC003-013-027-031-037-041-030400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0394.181002T2055Z-181003T0400Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX MORRIS PASSAIC SUSSEX WARREN $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 TORNADO WATCH 394 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC027-071-079-087-111-119-030400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0394.181002T2055Z-181003T0400Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUTCHESS ORANGE PUTNAM ROCKLAND ULSTER WESTCHESTER $$ ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 For our PA friends. Yikes. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1514.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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