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Rtd208

October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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Monmouth right up along the South Shore was the big heavy rainfall jackpot withMichael. Fire Island bouy gusting to 52 mph now. Sayville picked up 3.94" with likely higher amounts just to the south.

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Finally a step down closer to normal temperatures for the fist 5 days and then a dip below 6-10. MJO has left the warmer phases and the El Nino recently increased in strength. The record Pacific blocking shifts further east as the NPM continues near some of the highest values for this time of year.

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Winds were strong enough during that brief window this morning to knock down a few small branches in wantagh. Pretty impressive for a storm from the gulf interacting with an early fall front. Michael definitly wound up way north of forecast. The hurricane models did best with its track

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27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Hurricane models completely outperformed the rest of the guidance with last nights rains from Michael.

Yes, the HMON and especially HWRF performed very well on Michael. HWRF was honking the RI up to landfall horn the whole time, although it still ended up 15mb too weak.

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3 minutes ago, snywx said:

Already down to 50°.. Should drop into the 30s tonight

That first true Autumn night feels the same every year.  Good weather for some HS Football.

You can tell it's going to get chilly tonight...53° here.

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In the wake of the rainfall associated with a passing cold front and tropical storm Michael, New York City's 2018 precipitation has reached 49.83". That figure ties 2018 with 1936 as New York City's 34th wettest year on record. New York City still has more than two-and-a-half months to add to its figure.

2018 is already among the 20 wettest years in numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic, Southeastern, and southern New England regions. Select locations:

Baltimore: 55.41" (8th wettest)
Bridgeport: 45.52" (21st wettest)
Harrisburg: 51.16" (8th wettest)
Islip: 47.34" (19th wettest)
Richmond: 52.18" (16th wettest)
Washington, DC: 51.34" (13th wettest)
Wilmington, NC: 87.36" (wettest year on record)

The rankings relate to total annual precipitation figures, not year-to-date figures.

Based on both the historical climate record (1869-2017) and recent period (1971-2017) when a wetter regime appears to have developed, it appears more likely than not that 2018 will be among New York City's 10 wettest years on record.

Some probabilities:

Historic Data:
50" or more: >99%
55" or more: 91%
60" or more: 41%
65" or more: 4%

10th wettest (58.42"): 60%

1971-2017 Data:
50" or more: >99%
55" or more: 92%
60" or more: 56%
65" or more: 13%

10th wettest (58.42"): 71%

Historic extremes (October 13-December 31):
Least precipitation: 3.14", 1998
Most precipitation: 20.37", 1983

Mean precipitation: 9.42"
1971-2017 mean precipitation: 10.78"

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of the rainfall associated with a passing cold front and tropical storm Michael, New York City's 2018 precipitation has reached 49.83". That figure ties 2018 with 1936 as New York City's 34th wettest year on record. New York City still has more than two-and-a-half months to add to its figure.

2018 is already among the 20 wettest years in numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic, Southeastern, and southern New England regions. Select locations:

Baltimore: 55.41" (8th wettest)
Bridgeport: 45.52" (21st wettest)
Harrisburg: 51.16" (8th wettest)
Islip: 47.34" (19th wettest)
Richmond: 52.18" (16th wettest)
Washington, DC: 51.34" (13th wettest)
Wilmington, NC: 87.36" (wettest year on record)

The rankings relate to total annual precipitation figures, not year-to-date figures.

Based on both the historical climate record (1869-2017) and recent period (1971-2017) when a wetter regime appears to have developed, it appears more likely than not that 2018 will be among New York City's 10 wettest years on record.

Some probabilities:

Historic Data:
50" or more: >99%
55" or more: 91%
60" or more: 41%
65" or more: 4%

10th wettest (58.42"): 60%

1971-2017 Data:
50" or more: >99%
55" or more: 92%
60" or more: 56%
65" or more: 13%

10th wettest (58.42"): 71%

Historic extremes (October 13-December 31):
Least precipitation: 3.14", 1998
Most precipitation: 20.37", 1983

Mean precipitation: 9.42"
1971-2017 mean precipitation: 10.78"

It would be nice if I was only at ~50" for the year so far, it's closer to 60 here.

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Next 8 days averaging 55degs., or about NORMAL.

Month to date is +9.2[69.2].      Should be +5.5[63.5] by the 21st.

RWTT as warm as ever for us at +3 to +5 on the next 30 days and next 90 days.

53 here at 6am.

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Today is the 124th day this year in NYC with measurable rainfall. This establishes a new record for the year through October 13th. While the temperatures have dropped closer to normal for fall, the wet pattern continues. Models have a cutter every few days as the trough digs into the Great Lakes and East. 

Number of days in NYC with measurable rainfall through October 13th:

#1...124 days... 2018

#2...116 days... 1996...1950

#3...115 days....2003

#4..114 days....1920

#5..112 days....1916

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