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Rtd208

October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast.

Agree

Some areas will pick up a quick 1-3 inches from that.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Agree

Some areas will pick up a quick 1-3 inches from that.

Both the HWRF and HMON have been slowly sliding Southeast over the last few runs. I doubt we end up seeing much from the core itself but that doesn't mean it won't be a very wet day around here.

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The 2.30" PWAT surge coming up the coast from the Delmarva with the heavy convection is near record levels for October.

IMG_0277.GIF.5c00481044eca248202aa7792cfb071a.GIF

 

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The 12z NAM has been spot on so far with the positioning of Michael. The forecasted 15z position is almost identical to the current position of the center.

I would put the odds extremely low that anyone outside of coastal NJ or Long Island receives much rain from Michael itself. 

With that being said, we're going to remain in the moist Southwest flow for the next several hours which will give us intermittent periods of convection. The cold front is still back over Central Ohio currently.

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With 0.14" rain in the past hour, New York City's 2018 total precipitation has reached 48.70". That surpasses the 48.69" that fell in 1901 and 1998 to make 2018 New York City's 39th wettest year on record.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.14" rain in the past hour, New York City's 2018 total precipitation has reached 48.70". That surpasses the 48.69" that fell in 1901 and 1998 to make 2018 New York City's 39th wettest year on record.

Any chance for the top 10?

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.14" rain in the past hour, New York City's 2018 total precipitation has reached 48.70". That surpasses the 48.69" that fell in 1901 and 1998 to make 2018 New York City's 39th wettest year on record.

Don, 1901 and 1998 had same amounts to date?

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That first batch definitly had that tropical feel to it. Those super high PWATS are going to dump on somone later. The question is where. Right now I would favor inland areas closer to the front. Michael may scrape the far East end but that’s about it. I’m more looking forward to a nice windy fall day tomorrow. 

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast.

We already had one bout of very heavy rain here with very high winds after it was sunny earlier.  Expecting around 3" of rain here with around 5" on the east end.

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

It was only 7 years ago that areas just n&W of I-95 in the MA had a nice snowstorm in the last week of October. It's definitely possible with the unseasonably cold air being forecast.

We also had a big snow the next year in the first week of November on Long Island, 8" and it was Sandy related.

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11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Any chance for the top 10?

The 10th highest figure is 58.42" from 2003. If NYC receives just the historically-average precipitation for the remainder of 2018 (and no more today, which is unlikely for today), NYC would wind up with 58.27". I believe NYC will finish in the top 10 this year.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z NAM has been spot on so far with the positioning of Michael. The forecasted 15z position is almost identical to the current position of the center.

I would put the odds extremely low that anyone outside of coastal NJ or Long Island receives much rain from Michael itself. 

With that being said, we're going to remain in the moist Southwest flow for the next several hours which will give us intermittent periods of convection. The cold front is still back over Central Ohio currently.

.68 fell by me in a short period in Morris county 

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35 minutes ago, sferic said:

Don, 1901 and 1998 had same amounts to date?

No. Those are year-end figures. With 48.74", 2018 ranks as the 7th wettest January 1- October 12 on record for NYC.

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2 minutes ago, doncat said:

75/74 here currently...0.20"

about the same here-a quick downpour earlier.   Will be interesting to see if the coast ends up b/w the big frontal rains NW and a whiff on the Michael remnants-it will be close IMO

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