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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Current temp 78/DP 72/RH 76%

Summer continues, for now.

Brutal in Manhattan today. I cannot wait for some legit fall weather to work in. 

I could easily see is being just to far north for the Michael precip and just too far south for the front. Winds should be pretty gusty Friday morning out of the north which will bring down any loose leaves as we have had a lack of even moderate winds lately 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

models showing a screw zone for rains N and W of NYC-euro, nam and GFS all show it to some degree

gfs_apcpn_neus_10.png

This is one time I'll look forward to getting screwed. #nomorerain

 

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Brutal in Manhattan today. I cannot wait for some legit fall weather to work in. 

I could easily see is being just to far north for the Michael precip and just too far south for the front. Winds should be pretty gusty Friday morning out of the north which will bring down any loose leaves as we have had a lack of even moderate winds lately 

We need some wind to dry things out. Unfortunately it will bring down some rotted trees and branches but I guess that's the price we need to pay.

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With a temperature of 74° at 10 pm, it is very likely that today's low temperature at Central Park will wind up at 71°. If so, today's low temperature will be Central Park's latest 70° minimum temperature on record. The record for the latest 70° or above minimum temperature was set just last year when the low temperature fell to 71° on October 9.

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Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or still 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +9.5[69.8].   Should be down to +6.2[65.0] by the 19th.

Been 71+ here since 5am..

But still the RWTT does not show the cooldown for the rest of Oct.   CFS has it BN for the next 45 days, but claims Nov. will be AN, along with the whole winter.

Wet again near the 16th, then whole country goes dry like in Prohibition. lol.

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Yesterday's 71° low temperature at Central Park was Central Park's latest 70° minimum temperature on record. The previous record was set just last year when the low temperature fell to 71°.

Bridgeport, with a low temperature of 70°, also recorded its latest 70° minimum temperature on record. Its previous record was set on October 9, 2017 with a low temperature of 71°.

Finally, Tampa had its latest 80° minimum temperature on record. The prior record was set on October 9, 2009 and tied on October 9, 2017 with a low temperature of 80°.

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9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I'm curious to look at the FSU phase space diagrams as this thing exists the coast to see just how ET it really is.

What's shown by the HWRF looks more like something approaching the coast than something from the FL panhandle.

Hurricane models still show alot of rain for the area while the other models don't show alot.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hurricane models still show alot of rain for the area while the other models don't show alot.

Given that's it's not really all that tropical by the time it gets here, I'd go with the regular models.   3K nam is what most show-an area in the middle that does not get all that much relatively speaking

nam3km_apcpn_neus_16.png

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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given that's it's not really all that tropical by the time it gets here, I'd go with the regular models.   3K nam is what most show-an area in the middle that does not get all that much relatively speaking

nam3km_apcpn_neus_16.png

We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast.

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34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given that's it's not really all that tropical by the time it gets here, I'd go with the regular models.   3K nam is what most show-an area in the middle that does not get all that much relatively speaking

nam3km_apcpn_neus_16.png

We have thrown out the hurricane models once before and got burned for it. We will see what happens later.

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