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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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37 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

And again... Visibility is just a couple hundred feet with dense fog and mist. Another very warm overnight minimum too, it looks like it stayed above 60*.

We just can't get rid of this garbage.  Everything is soaked.

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Didn't take long for the 70 degree dew points to return.

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   70  70 100 S7        30.36S

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I rely on autumn to provide me with some decent dry, warmish hiking weather...this year has been the most unusable of any of the last 40 that I have lived here. Almost enough to get me seriously thinking of relocating. The outdoors keeps me sane, if this is the new normal then I'll soon be running in circles yelling and waving my arms over my head.

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2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Does such a wet pattern from summer into fall have any correlation with any particular winter pattern with high soil moisture in place? 

lot of mud

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1 hour ago, adiabatic13 said:

I rely on autumn to provide me with some decent dry, warmish hiking weather...this year has been the most unusable of any of the last 40 that I have lived here. Almost enough to get me seriously thinking of relocating. The outdoors keeps me sane, if this is the new normal then I'll soon be running in circles yelling and waving my arms over my head.

LOL. So dramatic.

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1 hour ago, adiabatic13 said:

I rely on autumn to provide me with some decent dry, warmish hiking weather...this year has been the most unusable of any of the last 40 that I have lived here. Almost enough to get me seriously thinking of relocating. The outdoors keeps me sane, if this is the new normal then I'll soon be running in circles yelling and waving my arms over my head.

There's no such thing as bad weather, only bad clothes.

...except this 77/70 nonsense in mid-October, that's bad weather.

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Models are slightly more northwest with the remnants of Michael for our area. We will still see some rain but the question is how much ?

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models are slightly more northwest with the remnants of Michael for our area. We will still see some rain but the question is how much ?

euro is dry for most less than a half inch and it's mostly from the cold front-the direct impacts of the storm are well south and east....

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Pattern completely reshuffles after this storm passes, much more fall like. It'll feel quite drastic compared to what we've been used to.

Troughing will still compete with WAR though, meaning we should see several rain chances. Would not be surprised to see heavier rainfall amounts with Michael's remnants. 

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LR GFS not showing anything like the current warm, muggy conditions for the duration of the run. Euro brings them back (kind of) for Tuesday but they get shunted away quickly for the remainder of the run.

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GFS gets the Michael-associated rain shield pretty close, maybe 50 miles SE of Long Island last run. Can't rule out at all a bump north on that and a slower front. It'll be hauling though so flood concerns should be limited. Unfortunately NC/SC doesn't need another drop. 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS gets the Michael-associated rain shield pretty close, maybe 50 miles SE of Long Island last run. Can't rule out at all a bump north on that and a slower front. It'll be hauling though so flood concerns should be limited. Unfortunately NC/SC doesn't need another drop. 

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised to see it trend north. There could also be some gusty winds (in the 30s) associated with it as it goes through extra tropical translation and the wind field expands. 

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Next 8 days averaging 63degs., but still about 6degs. AN.

Month to date is +8.7[69.1].    Should be +7.6[66.2] by the 18th.

The RWTT still shows no cooldown.   Just the second week of Nov.   The next 30 and next 90 are still a good 2-4degs. AN here.

69.5 here at 6am.

Meanwhile Cat4 Michael near 28.4N  86.4W, now.

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Michael is coming right at the transition to more of an El Nino pattern. For October, this means the trough axis will gradually shift near the Great Lakes. May take a series of steps or fronts to battle against the WAR which has been so persistent. 

 

nino34.png.ef5b66c4f06ca62f3b913e34c39932ae.png

 

 

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Off topic, but man oh man is Michael a beast. That radar presentation is beautiful. 

Prayers for all of those down there and any on this board who have family there. 

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1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Off topic, but man oh man is Michael a beast. That radar presentation is beautiful. 

Prayers for all of those down there and any on this board who have family there. 

going to be a disaster of great proportions there....145mph and still strengthening...

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70.5 here, with FOG.   Visibility <300'

Michael near 29.1N  86.2W at 10am        At least on satellite, the center seems to have jogged east on last few images.    Probably just a wobble.

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74 here, with fog lifting to reveal blue sky.   Hope it holds.

Michael near 27.7N. 85.8W at 1pm.

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Select Preliminary Record High Minimum Temperatures for October 10:

Albany: 67° (old record: 64°, 1913)
Binghamton: 64° (old record: 56°, 1954)
Boston: 68° (old record: 65°, 2017)
Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 64°, 2017)
Buffalo: 67° (old record: 65°, 1879) – yesterday’s 70° low was the latest such low on record
Islip: 67° (tied record set in 1997)
New York City-JFK: 66° (tied record set in 2017)
New York City-LGA: 71° (old record: 69°, 2017)
New York City-NYC: 71° (old record: 69°, 1949)
Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1990 and 2017)
Poughkeepsie: 63° (old record: 62°, 1949)
Westhampton: 68° (old record: 62°, 1967)
White Plains: 64° (old record: 62°, 1949, 1985, and 2017)

 

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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select Preliminary Record High Minimum Temperatures for October 10:

Albany: 67° (old record: 64°, 1913)
Binghamton: 64° (old record: 56°, 1954)
Boston: 68° (old record: 65°, 2017)
Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 64°, 2017)
Buffalo: 67° (old record: 65°, 1879) – yesterday’s 70° low was the latest such low on record
Islip: 67° (tied record set in 1997)
New York City-JFK: 66° (tied record set in 2017)
New York City-LGA: 71° (old record: 69°, 2017)
New York City-NYC: 71° (old record: 69°, 1949)
Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1990 and 2017)
Poughkeepsie: 63° (old record: 62°, 1949)
Westhampton: 68° (old record: 62°, 1967)
White Plains: 64° (old record: 62°, 1949, 1985, and 2017)

 

And amazingly on October 10th, 1979 Central Park had a trace of snow.

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Flash Flood Watch now up for a good portion of the Mt.Holly forecast area for tomorrow afternoon thru late tomorrow night. 2-3" of rain expected with locally higher amounts.

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39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select Preliminary Record High Minimum Temperatures for October 10:

Albany: 67° (old record: 64°, 1913)
Binghamton: 64° (old record: 56°, 1954)
Boston: 68° (old record: 65°, 2017)
Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 64°, 2017)
Buffalo: 67° (old record: 65°, 1879) – yesterday’s 70° low was the latest such low on record
Islip: 67° (tied record set in 1997)
New York City-JFK: 66° (tied record set in 2017)
New York City-LGA: 71° (old record: 69°, 2017)
New York City-NYC: 71° (old record: 69°, 1949)
Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1990 and 2017)
Poughkeepsie: 63° (old record: 62°, 1949)
Westhampton: 68° (old record: 62°, 1967)
White Plains: 64° (old record: 62°, 1949, 1985, and 2017)

 

The remarkable minimum temperature warmth continues. ISP is at +12.5 or a 61.8 average low temperature for the first 9 days of October. That is the average low temperature for September 6th.

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26 minutes ago, sferic said:

And amazingly on October 10th, 1979 Central Park had a trace of snow.

And areas just outside the City had a small accumulation. Washington, DC picked up 0.3" and Philadelphia had 2.1". It was a remarkable and rare early October snowfall.

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