CIK62 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 50degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is +4.3[63.0]. Should be +2.0[59.3] by the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Hurricane force winds for New England coast in the Euro If this was a little big earlier to phase. Wow big potential Small storm... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Small storm... Rjay or anyone else , where can I find "THIS" map or these pictures ? I am on tropical tidbits and I cannot find the ECMWF 6 hourly precipitation and MSLP ,,,,? I can access and see most other things on tidbits but I can't find this exact map that you posted , thanks in advance for any info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Rjay or anyone else , where can I find "THIS" map or these pictures ? I am on tropical tidbits and I cannot find the ECMWF 6 hourly precipitation and MSLP ,,,,? I can access and see most other things on tidbits but I can't find this exact map that you posted , thanks in advance for any info. It's on a pay site.. weather.us has good euro maps for free though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: It's on a pay site.. weather.us has good euro maps for free though! I was wondering why the heck I could not find it . I have weather.us bookmarked and will check it out now,,,Thanks Needsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 Fairly nice day today temp wise. Current temp 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 The cold front Sunday morning may come through with a gusty squall in spots. Some of the steepest midlevel lapse rates that we have seen in late October. 700-500 lapse rate: 8.04 C/km http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 GALE WARNING NYC HARBOR AREA TILL 6PM TOMORROW. This is an important message from NY Alert Issued To: New York Harbor HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued October 20 at 2:55PM EDT until October 21 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect. * WINDS...NW 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City) Meanwhile, next Sunday may have a similar message, if the models can ever show back to back runs that are the same. lol. ---------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 we've had quite a few of them this fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 49degs. or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is +4.1[62.7]. Should be +1.4[58.8] by the 29th. The RRWT which gave no indication of this current BN period, is promising a +5 month of Nov. for us. Walls of Jericho may fall as Dec. starts, however. GFS 06Z is 990mb., 2", and 50mph gusts for us this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/14/2018 at 10:24 AM, dWave said: I think the White Plains record is the most impressive. It can get pretty cool there espically since its not actually in the city of White Plains Strongly agree...HPN at 400' well north of the City on mostly flat ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Euro and gfs on board with a coastal rainstorm. Now the question will be how strong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 These steep midlevel lapse rates always produce. 12:05 am: Several reports of small hail or graupel occurring in northern New Jersey with the precipitation moving through at this time. If you have pics, send 'em our way! 9:05 PM - 20 Oct 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 48 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro and gfs on board with a coastal rainstorm. Now the question will be how strong ? I see it got colder, was surprised to see frozen precip before changing over to rain up here. Lots will change over the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 It looks like a very MJO driven forecast from late October into early November. The current phase 8 translates into the NAO drop and storm signal for later in the month. MJO 8-2 is colder than normal here this time of year. But we have to watch for a move into 3 during November which would tend to moderate the cooler pattern with more ridging returning for the East. I think this active MJO is why the long range models keep shifting from run to run on their forecasts beyond a week to 10 days. They should settle down once they get a better handle on the MJO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like a very MJO driven forecast from late October into early November. The current phase 8 translates into the NAO drop and storm signal for later in the month. MJO 8-2 is colder than normal here this time of year. But we have to watch for a move into 3 during November which would tend to moderate the cooler pattern with more ridging returning for the East. I think this active MJO is why the long range models keep shifting from run to run on their forecasts beyond a week to 10 days. They should settle down once they get a better handle on the MJO. Heard from NE thread that beginning of Nov re-torches? Is this the reason for models showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Freeze Watch switched to a Frost Advisory for Suffolk County. I’ll still be keeping a watchful eye on the temps tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: Heard from NE thread that beginning of Nov re-torches? Is this the reason for models showing that? Warmer Nov/Dec is common in Nino's though guidance is still on the fence about December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Warmer Nov/Dec is common in Nino's though guidance is still on the fence about December. Root for a -NAO/-AO pattern during an El Nino December if you want it cold in NYC. El Nino Decembers since 2000 in NYC: 2015 +13.3....+NAO...+AO 2014...+3.0....+NAO...+AO 2009....-1.4.....-NAO....-AO 2006....+6.3....+NAO...+AO 2004....+1.1....+NAO...+AO 2002....-1.3.....-NAO.....-AO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: Heard from NE thread that beginning of Nov re-torches? Is this the reason for models showing that? Not a torch man just above average. Highs around 60 lows in the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Gfs and cms show a big storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs and cms show a big storm next weekend For this time of year, give me the CMC track over the gfs track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 CMC is a powerhouse storm and track for late October but that model is also terrible. Still it's looking more and more likely that we'll see a big storm next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 what kind of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Actually had a decent sized branch break in today’s gusty winds. I’m the winter they would be run of the mill but with trees in full leaf here they are impactful. im starting to get excited for nexts weekends storm. Obviously not from a winter perspective but for a good wind and coastal flooding event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Actually had a decent sized branch break in today’s gusty winds. I’m the winter they would be run of the mill but with trees in full leaf here they are impactful. im starting to get excited for nexts weekends storm. Obviously not from a winter perspective but for a good wind and coastal flooding event. My location in the Catskills (Liberty NY) has rain and snow for next weekend, guess I know where I'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Aleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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