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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Close to 2010's average first freeze date at Westhampton. First freeze back on Sunday followed by the 26 today.

2010's average......October 15th

2018.....................October 14th

2010's earliest.......October 6th, 2014.....followed by February 2015 the coldest month of 2010's

2010's latest.........October 30th, 2011...followed by the dud 2011-2012 winter

 

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Low 42 this am. Have a few peppers planted, still producing albeit it a little smaller. Wonder how long they will hold on.

I used to drive well in westchester regularly, now I work in the City, I feel so lost I dont get to see any frost/freeze lol. I wonder if the leaves are even changing color outside the city. It pretty much green and lush here. I used to see some nice color along the Sprain to Taconic about this time of Oct.

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44 minutes ago, dWave said:

Low 42 this am. Have a few peppers planted, still producing albeit it a little smaller. Wonder how long they will hold on.

I used to drive well in westchester regularly, now I work in the City, I feel so lost I dont get to see any frost/freeze lol. I wonder if the leaves are even changing color outside the city. It pretty much green and lush here. I used to see some nice color along the Sprain to Taconic about this time of Oct.

Quite a first freeze spread between our urban and more rural areas.

Earliest to latest average first fall freeze dates during the 2010's:

FOK...10-15

SMQ..10-17

ISP....10-30

HPN...10-31

EWR..11-8

FRG...11-11

JFK....11-16

NYC...11-22

LGA....12-2

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At 2:30 pm, an area of rain extended from parts of Arkansas across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan into Ontario. That area of rain and showers was associated with a frontal system that will cross the region tomorrow morning. Even as precipitation amounts should be light, the guidance suggests that Central Park will likely receive the 0.01" it needs in order for 2018 to become New York City's 33rd year on record with 50" or more precipitation.

To date, 2018 has seen above to much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic region. 2018's total precipitation was as follows for select sites (the start of their recordkeeping is in parentheses):

Asheville (1869): 59.54” (5th wettest year)
Baltimore (1871): 55.66” (7th wettest year)
Harrisburg (1888): 51.32” (8th wettest year)
New York City (1869): 49.99” (33rd wettest year)
Oakland (1 SE), MD (1893): 59.46” (6th wettest year)
Richmond (1887): 52.42” (16th wettest year)
Scranton (1901): 49.69” (3rd wettest year)
Washington, DC (1871): 51.55” (13th wettest year)
Wilmington, NC (1870): 87.46” (wettest year on record)

 

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Canada

88 or anyone else help me out,,,,,,Im looking at the Euro hour 240 ( and for you others yes I realize that its still lite years away and there is oceans of time ) but isn't the freeze line all the way down near the coast >I mean the center of the low is wayyyyy up in Canada but that looks frozen and blue all the way down to the coast,,,,,no ?

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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 or anyone else help me out,,,,,,Im looking at the Euro hour 240 ( and for you others yes I realize that its still lite years away and there is oceans of time ) but isn't the freeze line all the way down near the coast >I mean the center of the low is wayyyyy up in Canada but that looks frozen and blue all the way down to the coast,,,,,no ?

The storm at 240 is well into Canada. The 850 line is off the coast.

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With 0.01" rain by 3 am today, New York City's 2018 total precipitation reached 50.00" for the 33rd time on record and first time since 2014 when 53.79" precipitation fell. Records go back to 1869. 21 (64%) of those cases occurred after 1970.

Number and Frequency of Years with 50.00” or More Precipitation:

Historic Period (1869-2018): 33 years; Return time: 4.5 years
1869-1970: 12 years; Return time: 8.5 years
1971-2018: 21 years; Return time: 2.3 years
2000-2018: 10 years; Return time 1.9 years

Mean Annual Precipitation:
Historic Period: (1869-2017): 45.27”
1869-1970: 42.89”
1971-2017: 50.42”
2000-2017: 50.58”

Note: excludes 2018, as 2018 has not ended

Implied Probabilities for Annual 2018 Precipitation:

Historic Period (1869-2017) Scenario:
55.00” or more: 88%
60.00” or more: 31%

1971-2017 Period:
55.00” or more: 90%
60.00” or more: 47%

All of New York City’s years during which 60.00” or more precipitation fell occurred after 1970.The most recent such year was 2011 when 72.81" precipitation fell.


October 21-December 31 Precipitation Records:

Least precipitation: 2.75", 1998
Most precipitation: 19.53", 1972

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