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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Warmest average minimum temperature on record for the 1st week of October at Islip. The minimum temperature departure is double the maximum. 2018 also set the record for the latest first low temperature below 50. The previous latest was 10-2-15. We are currently a week later than that with more warmth to continue.

Islip 10/1-10/7

Average minimum temperature.....61.7......normal.....49.7.....departure.....+12

.............maximum........................73.9......................67.2..........................+6

.............mean.............................................................................................+9.4

Latest first low below 50 at ISP

#1...10-8-18....so far

#2...10-2-15

#3....9-30-03

#4....9-29-02.....9-29-70

#5...9-27-80

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models already backing off the extent of the cool down and warm things up pretty quickly afterwards. 

To me it still looks like 5 days (friday through tuesday) of nice cool crisp refreshing air. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with 40s at night. But I do agree on a big warmup after that. I think we go back to a very warm pattern after the cooldown.

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12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM.

GGEM is one of the worst performing models especially on tropical systems

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM.

At this point there is no such thing as a good batch of heavy rain. It's so soggy tree branches are just rotting and falling and my yard is soaked to the point that if I step a few feet off the walkways I sink to the top of my shoes.

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1 hour ago, ny10019 said:

you can say that again. 

 

How people live in Seattle is beyond me.

This has been a record amount of cloudiness for the early fall in our area. This is typical for Seattle during the winter or Upstate NY in December. I can remember my friends going away to SUNY colleges and all complaining how cloudy it got around December. At least we didn't match the December 2013 cloudfest in BGM.

network-NY_ASOS--zstation-LGA--hour-12--year-2018--month-9--dpi-100.png.5ce5fa509108a9dad5b970843b7e797b.png

2013.png.4e73f9fc6f8b3ce21229cd39fecc0f32.png

 

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been a record amount of cloudiness for the early fall for our area. This is typical for Seattle during the winter or Upstate NY in December. I can remember my friends going away to SUNY colleges and all complaining how cloudy it got around December. 

Sunny, dry and relatively cool makes it worth the winter wait. Is the Japanese current the significant driving force.?

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Starting the day with more sun for a change. So it looks like we should make another run on 80 degrees. The WAR is close to record levels near 596 DM for the month of October. What an amazing run this year since the February 588 DM ridge and 80 degree reading. We got really lucky with that strat warming briefly interrupting the record WAR pattern for March and April.

IMG_0272.thumb.PNG.214f09fbaa41b2ad081107b38ebdaa60.PNG

 

 

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