495weatherguy Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Here comes El Nino. What does that portend for Long Island for the winter? Temperature and precipitation please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 A moderate west-based Modoki Nino would be excellent for us, tons of opportunities for significant wintry events. Would be similar to 02/03. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 11degs. AN. 5-day cooldown (14th.-19th.) seems is all we will get. CFS looks warmer overall in the long range as it bounces around in it's own way. The 500mb heights will go from +190m to -60m then back AN over the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 11degs. AN. 5-day cooldown (14th.-19th.) seems is all we will get. CFS looks warmer overall in the long range as it bounces around in it's own way. The 500mb heights will go from +190m to -60m then back AN over the next 15 days. 11* is huge. Up here it shouldn't be more than just a few and that's entirely due to high minimums because the daytime temps are ~70 give or take a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Ben Noll in regards to the Euro Seasonal -Continues to paint a stormy, cold picture for the East Coast. -Pattern gets underway sooner; i.e. Nov or Dec, than last run. -Feb still looks like the biggest month. -Jan is wet West Coast. -Driven by hybrid Niño, Modoki-lean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 It's 56*, misty, drizzling and cold. Heckuva way to run a nice couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 More clouds today. For a warm pattern 27 of the last 34 days have features cloudy - mostly cloudy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 GFS trying to 'kid the kidder' (the CMC), by predicting two TS's on one run, that will affect us. Place your bets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: More clouds today. For a warm pattern 27 of the last 34 days have features cloudy - mostly cloudy conditions. I'm so over this always cloudy BS. I just want a few sunny days in a row. Today is a real downer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: More clouds today. For a warm pattern 27 of the last 34 days have features cloudy - mostly cloudy conditions. This is one of the more interesting warm patterns we've had in Fall. Lot of warmth coupled with lots of clouds. Compare this to 2015, which to my recollection was much sunnier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Clearing in Eastern Suffolk. Wonder if temps overperform out this way? Already 69F El Nino usually makes coast wetter and warmer than normal with chances for big storms (and if timing is right) snow. Usually back loaded winters with warm starts. That scary December without a day below freezing in NYC was a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: This is one of the more interesting warm patterns we've had in Fall. Lot of warmth coupled with lots of clouds. Compare this to 2015, which to my recollection was much sunnier. Yeah, the minimum departures this fall are running +5 to +10 across the wider region with such high humidity. The maximum departures are a more modest +3 to +6 with all the clouds and onshore flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the minimum departures this fall are running +5 to +10 across the wider region with such high humidity. The maximum departures are a more modest +3 to +6 with all the clouds and onshore flow. The warm minimums and high humidity have continued from Summer right into Fall. Looks like we get a cool shot starting next weekend. The question is, do we go back AN, or level out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Awful weather today. Humid and right around 60 degrees under low clouds and heavy drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Awful weather today. Humid and right around 60 degrees under low clouds and heavy drizzle. 60 degrees the humidity should not matter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, nycwinter said: 60 degrees the humidity should not matter.. Near 100% humidity and temps between 62 and 65 is not nice. I had until recently the windows open until it started feeling annoyingly sticky inside and had a nice puddle of water under my cup and on my cup. That was enough for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 I had a brief period of sun today around noon which helped peak temperatures around 67 (and felt nice for a short while) but clouded over soon thereafter and sitting at 64/58 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 13 hours ago, bluewave said: Could mean a mild November and December if this record +NAO pattern continues. We need a strong -NAO/-AO pattern in order to get a cool December during an El Nino. El Nino winters usually reserve the best snow and cold chances for the second half in a more backloaded manner. The rest of October could feature a very changeable or volatile pattern. We are starting October with a lingering La Nina pattern. So it means the rest of October may see a battle between the La Nina WAR and the October El Nino Great Lakes trough. Was hoping for an 11/12 type winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: 60 degrees the humidity should not matter.. If anything it makes it worse because you can’t get comfortable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Looks like back of this pattern breaks next weekend then we head into real fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Misty drizzle in wantagh currently with the marine layer. I would kill for a couple days of Canadian high pressure and offshore winds. All this onshore flow is ruining the large swell we are receiving from Leslie the storm that never dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Had to head up to the coast of Maine to enjoy some sunshine. Mostly sunny, upper 50s, and a light wind today, perfect fall weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Looks like back of this pattern breaks next weekend then we head into real fall. It's a legit shot of fall like air. Highly unlikely that it lasts but it's going to be feel drastically different than what we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a legit shot of fall like air. Highly unlikely that it lasts but it's going to be feel drastically different than what we've seen. I just want a hard freeze to kill the ragweed and bugs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 67degs., or still about 9degs. AN, as mean is dropping too, at about a degree every 4 days. The cooldown should keep knocking the 8-day surplus down from now on. We'll see soon if there is an 8-day BN period coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 13 hours ago, nycwinter said: 60 degrees the humidity should not matter.. 13 hours ago, Sundog said: Near 100% humidity and temps between 62 and 65 is not nice. I had until recently the windows open until it started feeling annoyingly sticky inside and had a nice puddle of water under my cup and on my cup. That was enough for me. So humid that the mist never broke all day. Everything was slimy and wet making outdoor activities not much fun. Now it rained all night and it's pea soup fog out there ruining (at least) the morning. That upcoming dry shot will probably get muted like the decent weather the last few and next few days did. If you had looked at the NWS forecasts a few days ago you would have planned all sorts of outdoor stuff but instead we got this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 You know it's a warm pattern when the temperature and dew point is around 70 degrees at 7am on October 7th. The extreme low temperature warmth continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 I have had zero sun this weekend, awful forecast by all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: So humid that the mist never broke all day. Everything was slimy and wet making outdoor activities not much fun. Now it rained all night and it's pea soup fog out there ruining (at least) the morning. That upcoming dry shot will probably get muted like the decent weather the last few and next few days did. If you had looked at the NWS forecasts a few days ago you would have planned all sorts of outdoor stuff but instead we got this... The amount of sun that was forecast had most believing nice weather was coming. Instead constant clouds and mugginess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Clouds slowly burning off but may take to noon or later for northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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