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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has near record warmth for next week. Winds turn SW with 850's of +16C to +17C. So the warm spots could reach 85 degrees or higher.

I wonder what kind of impact that has on foliage. You'd suspect that large temp swings/major warmups would negatively affect color, but I'm not sure whether the response time is sensitive enough for it to make a difference.

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4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I wonder what kind of impact that has on foliage. You'd suspect that large temp swings/major warmups would negatively affect color, but I'm not sure whether the response time is sensitive enough for it to make a difference.

It could be a later peak like recent warm falls.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be a later peak like recent warm falls. We may also have to watch for more heavy rain potential around the middle of October. The EPS tries to merge a tropical system from the GOM with a frontal zone. We'll see if the models continue with this theme the closer we get.

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_264.thumb.png.957de65aff925e4bf882a12b238d7ec2.png

The GFS has it too.

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This morning's low temperature in Central Park was 61°. As a result, 2018 appears to be on course to become only the 26th case since 1869 when New York City had yet to see its first sub-50° reading through October 4.

Down in the Southeastern United States, it almost appears as if summer has yet to give way to autumn. Atlanta's low temperature of 69° this morning puts the city on track for its 152nd consecutive day on which the temperature remained at or above 60°. The previous record was 136 days, which was set in 2002. Further, if the MOS guidance is correct, Atlanta may not see a low temperature below 60° through at least October 10. The latest occurrence of that city's first reading below 50° is October 9, 2002. Records go back to 1879.

Even as New York Metro Area will see a modest push of cooler air to end the week, much of next week could experience readings above to much above normal. As a result, it appears likely that 2018 will become only the 11th year on record when the temperature had failed to drop below 50° through October 10.

The extended range guidance has persistently indicated that a period of cooler than normal readings could occur starting around mid-month. However, it remains uncertain whether such a pattern will take hold. The very end of the guidance has slowly been migrating back toward more riding in the East.

Should such ridging develop and persist, the closing week of October could wind up on the warm side of normal. The long-range teleconnection forecasts also hint at such an outcome. As a result, 2018 could mark New York City's second consecutive October with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. The last time that happened was 1953 and 1954.
Applying sensitivity analysis to the guidance, the latest implied probabilities are:

Above normal: 74%
Mean temperature of 60° or above: 55%

 

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^^^^^^^

Don, it looks like we are on track for another top 5 latest date like last October.

Latest NYC dates to drop below 50 degrees:

#1...10-20.....2005

#2...10-16.....2017....1995....1955

#3...10-15....1969....1898

#4...10-14....2002

#5...10-12....2007....1910...1909

IMG_0268.thumb.JPG.86f445e29beef999bd4482acd3ce4f20.JPG

 

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14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What the hell happened to the dry week? Have an outdoor meeting at 7 tonight and now it looks like rain. WTF

The risk of rain today is isolated.

CAPE is quite low and shear is non existent. Shouldn't be much more than a passing shower or isolated boomer. 

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Starting to see color on the leaves in central Westchester. Today is the first day that I really notice it in the wooded areas… The nights with low temperatures in the 50s have helped.

So I don’t think the colors will be necessarily late. This is a nice September weather we’re having. Not like it is been in the 80s. (although that may come Sunday)

It is shocking how warm the overnight lows have been within the city limits on top of the already warm low temps region wide.

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Starting to look like more of an El Nino pattern by the middle of October. So it's possible that a trough could set up over the Great Lakes around that time. Still could be a battle as a piece of the WAR tries to hold on. Maybe our next wet interval.

Given our tendency to stay wet this year, I wouldn't doubt it. WAR will put up a ton of resistance. Last month we had a pretty dry interval but still managed to get well AN rainfall. 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

^^^^^^^

Don, it looks like we are on track for another top 5 latest date like last October.

Latest NYC dates to drop below 50 degrees:

#1...10-20.....2005

#2...10-16.....2017....1995....1955

#3...10-15....1969....1898

#4...10-14....2002

#5...10-12....2007....1910...1909

IMG_0268.thumb.JPG.86f445e29beef999bd4482acd3ce4f20.JPG

 

the first seven years on that list had good to great winters...

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24 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the first seven years on that list had good to great winters...

LGA recorded latest first freeze on 1-4-16. Nearly 3 weeks later on 1-23-16 was one of my favorite snowstorms of all time. So snowy winters have been mixing with plenty of fall and winter warmth during the 2010's.

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LGA recorded latest first freeze on 1-4-16. Nearly 3 weeks later on 1-23-16 was one of my favorite snowstorms of all time. So snowy winters have been mixing with plenty of fall and winter warmth during the 2010's.

I'm shocked to learn that there has ever been a December without a sub-freezing low at LGA. 32 is the average low for the month.

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6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Raining here in Melville----supposed to rain until 7:15 according to point and click.  2nd time this week it has rained when it was forecast to be bone dry

Not sure what forecast you're talking about. Most forecasts I've seen in the last few days have been calling for a scattered shower/storm late thursday as the front comes in. Lee Goldberg was talking about it even back on monday. Not a surprise, with the front that's gonna cool it down bumping into this warmth/humidity.

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30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Not sure what forecast you're talking about. Most forecasts I've seen in the last few days have been calling for a scattered shower/storm late thursday as the front comes in. Lee Goldberg was talking about it even back on monday. Not a surprise, with the front that's gonna cool it down bumping into this warmth/humidity.

On Sunday, the forecast at least for my location, was to be sunny and dry.  Interesting to me how Tuesday and Tonight were not even hinted at

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With all this warmth, let's go back 31 years ago to October 4th, 1987

Huge snowstorm north and NE of NYC

NW Jersey and Northern  Westchester had 3 inches while further North way over a foot.

I remember just 30 to 40 miles up the thruway from NYC it was snowing as I was in it. WCBS AM also reported a sleet pellet in Hicksville NY

What a storm

snow.JPG

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