October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I have a hard time with last year being a great winter. Yes March was pretty inspiring and that early January cold shot was significant but as a whole I have a hard time giving the winter a higher grade than a B+. That warm 6 weeks and the warmth in between the snows in March just killed it for me.

Today turned out to be an ok day, a bit too muggy for my tastes this morning and not enough sun but temps are reasonable.

 

Did you miss the 1/5 Blizzard up there?  That saved it for here-otherwise it would have been 2 weeks of wasted cold...sucked losing the heart of winter to rain and warmth-I do agree with that...March was good-but alot of the snow had trouble sticking here given the time of year-the same pattern in Jan or Feb would have been epic.

[Gravity Wave]

GFS overshot today's high by 7 at NYC and 5 at EWR despite properly forecasting this afternoon's clouds. FV3 did better.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Did you miss the 1/5 Blizzard up there?  That saved it for here-otherwise it would have been 2 weeks of wasted cold...sucked losing the heart of winter to rain and warmth-I do agree with that...March was good-but alot of the snow had trouble sticking here given the time of year-the same pattern in Jan or Feb would have been epic.

We got that here too but it still felt like mostly wasted cold because it was dry for the first week or so. I dunno, it just felt like a half baked kind of winter that was frustrating because of the early March disaster when we lost power for a week.

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I have a hard time with last year being a great winter. Yes March was pretty inspiring and that early January cold shot was significant but as a whole I have a hard time giving the winter a higher grade than a B+. That warm 6 weeks and the warmth in between the snows in March just killed it for me.

Today turned out to be an ok day, a bit too muggy for my tastes this morning and not enough sun but temps are reasonable.

 

there aren't to many winters with over 40" of snow...some areas got 60"...even February as warm as it was managed to have a 4" snowfall...late December and January had a two week period below freezing with a coastal snowstorm...March produced over 20" on Staten Island...

[uncle W]

hall of fame winters...my votes...

1947-48

1957-58

1960-61

1963-64

1966-67

1977-78

1993-94

1995-96

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

 

[Cfa]

My votes:

2001-02

2011-12

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

there aren't to many winters with over 40" of snow...some areas got 60"...even February as warm as it was managed to have a 4" snowfall...late December and January had a two week period below freezing with a coastal snowstorm...March produced over 20" on Staten Island...

I had ~60" in March, a decent storm in early January, below 0 a couple of times and days that barely reached the mid-teens but somehow it just didn't seem like an A winter. Yup that Feb storm was quite the fluke in a sea of warmth, I think I got something like 8 or 10". I also only used about 2/3 the amount of heating oil that I expect to use but we were still running the heat much later into the year than we usually do which is part of why I don't have the warm fuzzies for the winter as a whole, it was warm overall. 

10/11 was a good winter, would have been really great if it hadn't ended so abruptly (or was that 9/10 that just shut off?). I think it was 03/04 that was a wall to wall winter, didn't end up with outrageous totals but it started strong on 12/5 and just kept going right through the end of March. I didn't get back here until April 96 so I missed the best of it but I was here for 93/94 and remember that as the first of the great winters in the modern era. I'd also put 77/78 in as one of the good ones. I like winters with a long lasting, solid snowpack that gets refreshed regularly even if it's just a couple of wispy inches at a time.

 

[Juliancolton]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Did you miss the 1/5 Blizzard up there?  That saved it for here-otherwise it would have been 2 weeks of wasted cold...sucked losing the heart of winter to rain and warmth-I do agree with that...March was good-but alot of the snow had trouble sticking here given the time of year-the same pattern in Jan or Feb would have been epic.

*raises hand*

[WarrenCtyWx]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I had ~60" in March, a decent storm in early January, below 0 a couple of times and days that barely reached the mid-teens but somehow it just didn't seem like an A winter. Yup that Feb storm was quite the fluke in a sea of warmth, I think I got something like 8 or 10". I also only used about 2/3 the amount of heating oil that I expect to use but we were still running the heat much later into the year than we usually do which is part of why I don't have the warm fuzzies for the winter as a whole, it was warm overall. 

10/11 was a good winter, would have been really great if it hadn't ended so abruptly (or was that 9/10 that just shut off?). I think it was 03/04 that was a wall to wall winter, didn't end up with outrageous totals but it started strong on 12/5 and just kept going right through the end of March. I didn't get back here until April 96 so I missed the best of it but I was here for 93/94 and remember that as the first of the great winters in the modern era. I'd also put 77/78 in as one of the good ones. I like winters with a long lasting, solid snowpack that gets refreshed regularly even if it's just a couple of wispy inches at a time.

 

I didn't think any areas had as much as 60" in the month of March alone. The highest I could find was the month of 45" in interior NNJ. Unless I misinterpreted your post?

[MJO812]

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

hall of fame winters...my votes...

1947-48

1957-58

1960-61

1963-64

1966-67

1977-78

1993-94

1995-96

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

 

I would add 92-93 for the epic December nor’easter and March blizzard. And 02-03 which I experienced in Towson MD where we had 33” from the Presidents’ Day storm. Still the largest single snow storm I have experienced. 

I spent allot of time last March in southern Vermont where there was 80”+. 18”, 36” and 22” for the big three. Incredible snow pack. 

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would add 92-93 for the epic December nor’easter and March blizzard. And 02-03 which I experienced in Towson MD where we had 33” from the Presidents’ Day storm. Still the largest single snow storm I have experienced. 

I spent allot of time last March in southern Vermont where there was 80”+. 18”, 36” and 22” for the big three. Incredible snow pack. 

I forgot 2002-03...92-93 wasn't great in the city but it did break a 10 year 10" snowfall drought in NYC...

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

What times do the 6z and 18z runs come out?

[Rtd208]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

Don't get me wrong, I think its great the Euro now has 06z/18z runs but it does take away the fun a bit waiting for a Euro run every 12 hours. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 71degs., or about 11degs. AN..   

Incredibly, there could be another 12 days of double digit 850mb T's.   The normal would be 9C down to 7C at mid-month.  No reason to expect a BN day till about the 16th.    Otherwise this looks like a runaway Dec. 2015, GW, future shock, type month during its first half.

The real counterpoise comes Nov. 7-16 by the EURO and RWTT outputs.

[bluewave]

Warm start to October with our local stations in the +7 to +9 range. You know  it's an unusually warm pattern in October when the temperature approaches 80 with so many clouds like yesterday.

[donsutherland1]

Based on the guidance and sensitivity analysis, the first week of October will likely see a mean temperature just over 69° (range: 67.0°-71.3°). Since 1869, 21 prior years had a mean temperature of 67° or above during the first week in October.

Those cases had mixed outcomes for snowfall during the winter that followed.

Six of those years saw less than 15" snow:
1900-01: 5.1”
1927-28: 14.5”
1931-32: 5.3”
1941-42: 11.3”
1954-55: 11.5”
2007-08: 11.9”

Seven of those years saw 40" or more snow:

1898-99: 55.9”
1922-23: 60.4”
1995-96: 75.6”
2002-03: 49.3”
2005-06: 41.0”
2013-14: 57.4”
2017-18: 40.9”

However, if one categorized the cases by October 16-31 temperatures and precipitation, there were two distinct clusters of outcomes. The mean October 16-31 temperature for all 21 cases was 54.8°. The mean October 16-31 precipitation for all 21 cases was 2.16"

The Warm/Dry category (mean October 16-31 temperature > 54.8°/precipitation < 2.16") had median winter snowfall of 11.5". 4/5 (80%) of that cluster had seasonal snowfall < 20" and 2/5 (40%) had seasonal snowfall < 10".

Least snowfall: 5.1", 1900-1901
Most snowfall: 57.4", 2013-2014

The Cool/Wet category (mean October 16-31 temperature < 54.8°/precipitation > 2.16") had median winter snowfall of 40.1". 5/6 (83%) of that cluster had seasonal snowfall 30" or more and 3/6 (50%) had seasonal snowfall of 40" or more.

Least snowfall: 25.4", 1983-84
Most snowfall: 55.9", 1898-99

For now, it is a little soon to have much confidence in snowfall prospects for the upcoming winter. All categories (cool/wet, cool/dry, warm/wet, and warm/dry) had at least one very snowy winter. Only the cool/wet category had no winters with < 15" snowfall. Sample size constraints should be noted.

[gravitylover]

12 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I didn't think any areas had as much as 60" in the month of March alone. The highest I could find was the month of 45" in interior NNJ. Unless I misinterpreted your post?

Oops sloppy fingers  I meant to hit 4 so about 40" in March unless I'm forgetting something in the last week and a bit over 60" for the winter season.

[uncle W]

the first 15 days in October 1954 had 8 days in the 80's...but between heat spells there was briefly record cold in the upper 30's...That's something we don't see any more...Hurricane Hazel also came in October 54...

[SACRUS]

 

Great image (loop) of the low clouds/fog retreating NW and high clouds building in.

72 here

 

[SACRUS]

GFS insistent on building ridge to 592DM heights Columbus Day and into next wed.

[gravitylover]

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Great image (loop) of the low clouds/fog retreating NW and high clouds building in.

72 here

 

Hmmph it's been gloomy with 1/4 mile vis fog and drizzle here all morning and it hasn't even hit 60* yet.

[Gravity Wave]

NAM has storms for us this evening. HRRR misses to the north but it's not in its ideal range right now.

[Brian5671]

sun burning through the clouds here now-temps quickly rising....68 now

[Cfa]

70 degree dew points have returned (again). Currently 70 with a temp of 75 and sunshine.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

70 degree dew points have returned (again). Currently 70 with a temp of 75 and sunshine.

72 degree dew point now at JFK and 70 up in Orange County.

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   77  72 

Warwick          N/A     77  70 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 78/DP 69/RH 65% 

[Gravity Wave]

I just love this cool, crisp October weather.

[frd]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the guidance and sensitivity analysis, the first week of October will likely see a mean temperature just over 69° (range: 67.0°-71.3°). Since 1869, 21 prior years had a mean temperature of 67° or above during the first week in October.

Those cases had mixed outcomes for snowfall during the winter that followed.

Six of those years saw less than 15" snow:
1900-01: 5.1”
1927-28: 14.5”
1931-32: 5.3”
1941-42: 11.3”
1954-55: 11.5”
2007-08: 11.9”

Seven of those years saw 40" or more snow:

1898-99: 55.9”
1922-23: 60.4”
1995-96: 75.6”
2002-03: 49.3”
2005-06: 41.0”
2013-14: 57.4”
2017-18: 40.9”

However, if one categorized the cases by October 16-31 temperatures and precipitation, there were two distinct clusters of outcomes. The mean October 16-31 temperature for all 21 cases was 54.8°. The mean October 16-31 precipitation for all 21 cases was 2.16"

The Warm/Dry category (mean October 16-31 temperature > 54.8°/precipitation < 2.16") had median winter snowfall of 11.5". 4/5 (80%) of that cluster had seasonal snowfall < 20" and 2/5 (40%) had seasonal snowfall < 10".

Least snowfall: 5.1", 1900-1901
Most snowfall: 57.4", 2013-2014

The Cool/Wet category (mean October 16-31 temperature < 54.8°/precipitation > 2.16") had median winter snowfall of 40.1". 5/6 (83%) of that cluster had seasonal snowfall 30" or more and 3/6 (50%) had seasonal snowfall of 40" or more.

Least snowfall: 25.4", 1983-84
Most snowfall: 55.9", 1898-99

For now, it is a little soon to have much confidence in snowfall prospects for the upcoming winter. All categories (cool/wet, cool/dry, warm/wet, and warm/dry) had at least one very snowy winter. Only the cool/wet category had no winters with < 15" snowfall. Sample size constraints should be noted.

Well, even though you said it is too early to tell,  it would seem if you enjoy snow then we better get come cool, wet weather ASAP. 

Of course on the flip side, maybe it is not possible any longer to depend on other winter seasons any longer as a forecast tools, because of global weather changes the last two decades.

 

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I just love this cool, crisp October weather.

with 99% of the leaves still green