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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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38 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Surprised to see KAVL reporting 39 F when I have 27 F IMBY.

KAVL seems to be constantly warmer, like the thermometer is placed next to jet exhaust. I have noticed that WLOS is showing the downtown temp too now. I wondered if people were like, my temp is colder than that when they showed the airport temp. 

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43 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Surprised to see KAVL reporting 39 F when I have 27 F IMBY.

It's really too bad that the airport is used as the official weather station for Asheville. The difference between downtown Asheville and Fletcher can be huge, especially in the Winter.

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Back when I worked downtown and had a view to the south; frequently during NWF snow you could see that the sun was shinning to the south in the direction of the airport.  That certainly could cause significant discrepancies.  However, it has been mostly sunny here today and didn't expect such a large discrepancy. 

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8 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Back when I worked downtown and had a view to the south; frequently during NWF snow you could see that the sun was shinning to the south in the direction of the airport.  That certainly could cause significant discrepancies.  However, it has been mostly sunny here today and didn't expect such a large discrepancy. 

True, but then look at snow events like December where when storms come from the South, the difference between downtown and Fletcher was a few inches. All in all, I think it averages out. 

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33 minutes ago, cold air aloft said:

It's really too bad that the airport is used as the official weather station for Asheville. The difference between downtown Asheville and Fletcher can be huge, especially in the Winter.

IMO it's not the difference in latitude between Fletcher and Downtown that causes the larger descrepecy but the fact that the airport weather station resides along the largest body of moving water in WNC. Same could be said for an area along the French Broad well north of Downtown. This a weather station reading in Hot Springs. The river simply has too much influence.

 

image.png.9e1cdd1ed80444dced6473832f6974b0.png

 

Just east of Fletcher atop Bearwallow Mtn, they are reporting a temperature of 20 degrees. Nearly a 20 degree difference in about 7 short miles.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/?station=BEAR

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33 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

True, but then look at snow events like December where when storms come from the South, the difference between downtown and Fletcher was a few inches. All in all, I think it averages out. 

I ended up with 3" out of the December storm; totals killed by sleet.  Not complaining because I like my trees in the upright position.  My wife and I drove a bit up Hwy 276 out of Pisgah Forest after the storm; was a bit stunned at the number of trees that came down.

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37 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I ended up with 3" out of the December storm; totals killed by sleet.  Not complaining because I like my trees in the upright position.  My wife and I drove a bit up Hwy 276 out of Pisgah Forest after the storm; was a bit stunned at the number of trees that came down.

Yea during those CAD setups with cold air coming from the east and warm air to the northwest, it seeps down that French Broad River valley to the from Tennessee and can cut down total in and around Asheville. That's what I was alluding to. All depends on the setup. You definitely do better with NWF that points south.

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36 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

10° and flurries this morning.  Wasn't expecting that.

Me either. Flurries have turned into light snow. Where did this come from? Expected sunny skies today. Got down to 8.6 this morning, up to 12.2 now but the wind has relaxed a little.

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Had flurries just about constantly since yesterday morning. Picked up a little here now though as well. Wont complain with some light snow before the warm up begins tomorrow. 

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GFS model had been showing this small batch of moisture at 850mb crossing the area this morning lasting into early afternoon.  No model showed any measurable precip but when you get 850mb moisture crossing the mtns with temps this cold it almost always produces something. 

Anywho 6z GFS says this should last through mid afternoon. 

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After spending the last couple of days in Asheville and Raleigh in shorts and short sleeve shirts, I'm done with winter. I hope it warms up and stays warm. 

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55 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

After spending the last couple of days in Asheville and Raleigh in shorts and short sleeve shirts, I'm done with winter. I hope it warms up and stays warm. 

Same! We've had a 12 incher and some other smaller snows. I'll call that a success and ride off into 70 degrees and long days!

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Wouldn't be surprised to see a few overrunning snow flurries/showers around WNC on Sunday morning.  Models typically struggle to resolve that moisture until a few days before but it certain looks like the a zone of truncation could develop due to pressure differences.  Also cold have a pretty stout wedge in place with most models showing a 1038mb high to the NE.  12z ICON has a plausible solution imo and would get the job done with a 1044mb hp in place across the Mid Atlantic.  Might be grasping at straws here since its been so boring, but these overrunning events are notoriously poorly modeled.. and could be something to watch. 

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Wouldn't be surprised to see a few overrunning snow flurries/showers around WNC on Sunday morning.  Models typically struggle to resolve that moisture until a few days before but it certain looks like the a zone of truncation could develop due to pressure differences.  Also cold have a pretty stout wedge in place with most models showing a 1038mb high to the NE.  12z ICON has a plausible solution imo and would get the job done with a 1044mb hp in place across the Mid Atlantic.  Might be grasping at straws here since its been so boring, but these overrunning events are notoriously poorly modeled.. and could be something to watch. 
Fv3 has been intent on an ice/zr event next Tuesday or so for a bit now. Interesting to watch unfold for sure.
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28 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

It's all alone but the 12z fv3 is a thing of beauty. Massive storm for the mountains.

It’s a absolute monster! 1.5-2 inches of precip and temps quite a bit below freezing 

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